Not so fast, Mickey
Mickey Kaus, ready as always to feed bogus talking points to wingnuts, asks the following purely rhetorical question:
What Kaus (and the Tribune columnist) are doing here is being willfully obtuse about the facts. GOP allegations of ACORN "voter fraud" are based on the fact that ACORN's voter registration efforts have historically produced a significant number of fraudulent registration forms (e.g. forms with fictitious names or the names of people already registered to vote or ineligible to vote). But what ACORN's critics never bother to explain is that there is a huge difference between collecting fraudulent forms and trying to pass them off as legitimate ones. Like any group trying to do a registration drive, ACORN will inevitably collect a number of fraudulent forms. Canvassers don't have the ability to independently verify the truth of what people are writing on their forms. And, of course, in any large registration effort, there will always be cases where the canvassers themselves turn in false or duplicative forms in order to boost their own numbers and make themselves look good.
Like all groups who engage in these efforts, ACORN tries to weed out any false or duplicative forms that are turned in by their canvassers. But in most states (including Minnesota, I believe), ACORN cannot simply disregard these bogus forms. They have to keep them and turn them in to the state. ACORN's critics simply ignore this fact and pretend as if all of these bogus registrations are being turned over to the state by ACORN in an attempt to pass them off as legitimate. They're not; the registration form for "Mickey Mouse" is being turned over because the law requires that it be turned over.
Of course, some duplicative or fraudulent forms will inevitably slip through the cracks and be turned over with the legitimate group, but it's a much smaller number. And even then, each state does its own screening of voter registrations, weeding out the duplicative and illegitimate ones. If state officials do a poor job on this screening process, then some false or duplicative registrations may sneak through, but again we are winnowing down the potential universe of fraudulent voters significantly.
Finally, in order for voter fraud to occur, the voters whose fraudulent registrations managed to get through the various screening processes (or people impersonating them) need to actually show up on election day and commit a felony by voting fraudulently. There's never been any evidence presented by anyone that this actually happens in non-negligible numbers.
So no, Mickey, it is not at all likely that fraudulent voting accounted for Al Franken's margin of victory, nor do you have any evidence or logical basis to believe that is the case. But thanks for giving wingnuts a new talking point. Mission accomplished.
UPDATE: It's probably also worth pointing out the rather obvious fact that the Minnesota recount was a drawn out, heavily-scrutinized process. If there was any evidence at all of fraudulent or duplicative voting, it likely would have turned up in the recount process. There were, after all, literally dozens of high-priced lawyers scouring the earth for any data point that might possibly help Norm Coleman. So either Mickey Kaus, in the 10 seconds of thought he devoted to this post, stumbled upon something this team of lawyers did not, or he doesn't know what he's talking about. You make the call.
Did ACORN chicanery elect Al Franken? That's the import of this tactfully phrased Minneapolis Star Tribune story. Franken won by 312 votes. ACORN claimed to have registered 48,000 new Minnesota voters. If just 1% were ineligible but cast ballots, or had ballots cast for them illegally, and survived the recount process ... that's 480 votes, almost certainly overwhelmingly cast for Franken. ... Maybe in pristine Minnesota even ACORN is clean. If so, the state would apparently be an outlier.To be fair to Kaus, he is simply expounding upon an equally inane bit of commentary from a columnist at the Minneapolis Star Tribune (though, Mickey, it's an op-ed, not a "story").
What Kaus (and the Tribune columnist) are doing here is being willfully obtuse about the facts. GOP allegations of ACORN "voter fraud" are based on the fact that ACORN's voter registration efforts have historically produced a significant number of fraudulent registration forms (e.g. forms with fictitious names or the names of people already registered to vote or ineligible to vote). But what ACORN's critics never bother to explain is that there is a huge difference between collecting fraudulent forms and trying to pass them off as legitimate ones. Like any group trying to do a registration drive, ACORN will inevitably collect a number of fraudulent forms. Canvassers don't have the ability to independently verify the truth of what people are writing on their forms. And, of course, in any large registration effort, there will always be cases where the canvassers themselves turn in false or duplicative forms in order to boost their own numbers and make themselves look good.
Like all groups who engage in these efforts, ACORN tries to weed out any false or duplicative forms that are turned in by their canvassers. But in most states (including Minnesota, I believe), ACORN cannot simply disregard these bogus forms. They have to keep them and turn them in to the state. ACORN's critics simply ignore this fact and pretend as if all of these bogus registrations are being turned over to the state by ACORN in an attempt to pass them off as legitimate. They're not; the registration form for "Mickey Mouse" is being turned over because the law requires that it be turned over.
Of course, some duplicative or fraudulent forms will inevitably slip through the cracks and be turned over with the legitimate group, but it's a much smaller number. And even then, each state does its own screening of voter registrations, weeding out the duplicative and illegitimate ones. If state officials do a poor job on this screening process, then some false or duplicative registrations may sneak through, but again we are winnowing down the potential universe of fraudulent voters significantly.
Finally, in order for voter fraud to occur, the voters whose fraudulent registrations managed to get through the various screening processes (or people impersonating them) need to actually show up on election day and commit a felony by voting fraudulently. There's never been any evidence presented by anyone that this actually happens in non-negligible numbers.
So no, Mickey, it is not at all likely that fraudulent voting accounted for Al Franken's margin of victory, nor do you have any evidence or logical basis to believe that is the case. But thanks for giving wingnuts a new talking point. Mission accomplished.
UPDATE: It's probably also worth pointing out the rather obvious fact that the Minnesota recount was a drawn out, heavily-scrutinized process. If there was any evidence at all of fraudulent or duplicative voting, it likely would have turned up in the recount process. There were, after all, literally dozens of high-priced lawyers scouring the earth for any data point that might possibly help Norm Coleman. So either Mickey Kaus, in the 10 seconds of thought he devoted to this post, stumbled upon something this team of lawyers did not, or he doesn't know what he's talking about. You make the call.
posted by A.L. at 10:21 AM
19 Comments:
I take issue with your assertion that Kaus "is being willfully obtuse about the facts."
I put it at a 50/50 shot that he just doesn't know any better.
I wouldn't be surprised if many on the right wing think that ACORN's prostitution-enabling scandal means that ACORN stole Barack Obama the election (and now, Al Franken a senate seat).
Generally, this is spot on analysis as usual, A.L.
"I wouldn't be surprised if many on the right wing think that ACORN's prostitution-enabling scandal means that ACORN stole Barack Obama the election (and now, Al Franken a senate seat)."
No need to worry about being surprised:
Google: Acorn Obama stole election
Google: Acorn Franken stole election
That's affirmative.
Perhaps his goal is to have no unpublished thoughts on ACORN.
Well, um, folks...
That's the whole point of the attacks on ACORN. It's to build the case for impeachment when the Republicans take back Congress, as they think they will in the midterm election.
ACORN=Whitewater.
Duh.
"That's the whole point of the attacks on ACORN. It's to build the case for impeachment when the Republicans take back Congress, as they think they will in the midterm election."
Except that implies that there is an actual intelligence at work. And I've seen little evidence that the rightwing machine is operating on anything more than id these days.
This is not to say, btw, that if the GOP was to take the House in 2010 that they wouldn't pursue impeachment on these (or other) grounds. Since they are driven by id, pursuing such a shiny object really wouldn't surprise me. It's just that I don't see any evidence that the rightwing machine these days is thinking two minutes ahead much less two years.
"...canvassers themselves turn in false or duplicative forms in order to boost their own numbers and make themselves look good."
Or, where workers are being paid on a piecework basis, to defraud ACORN and make additionsl money. That would actually make ACORN the victim of the fraud rather than the perpetrator of it.
I completely agree with anonymous above. For as much as Republicans attack anything remotely connected with Obama, I see absolutely no strategy involved. And that's why their poll numbers remain in the toilet. Blind hatred isn't a strategy.
As for Kaus, is he honestly suggesting that EVERY ACORN office is corrupt? I guess he is. What a hack.
Mikey is back with new attempts to try and fudge the issue. I suggest you pose the following challenge to Mikey:
- That he do some actual research and not just ask "innocent questions".
1) How many confirmed actual cases of vote FRAUD are there in the last ten years. Who commited them and in what way?
2) How many confirmed cases of vote FRAUD are there in the last ten years perpetrated by ACORN.
Now the answer to those questions should give Mickey some clue if he is justified in his speculations or if he is possibly just trading inuendo about a minority and lower class frequent, urban nonprofit orginization in the service of his rural middle class readership.
Have none of these Republicans ever gone out and registered voters? I can only assume not. Which just indicates how much they love America.
If the right wing wants to talk voter fraud, we'll talk voter fraud. Lest they forget...
Well, if ACORN did get Al elected, good for them. Contratulations to ACORN.
Mickey Kaus. Meh.
Who reads Mickey Kaus? He's a one trick pony, and this is just another instance of his trick. It's actually not even his trick, he learned it at "even the liberal TNR".
'Except that implies that there is an actual intelligence at work. And I've seen little evidence that the rightwing machine is operating on anything more than id these days.'
Pure id is a big part of it, but it's important not to underestimate the right. Yes, there are a lot of stupid conservatives. Frankly, as someone who wads through comments on HuffPo reasonably frequently, there are a lot of stupid liberals too.
If you want to say that ACORN is not specifically part of an organized plan then you could be right. But it's not specifically about ACORN. It's about throwing as much fecal matter at the wall as possible in the hopes of getting something to stick when they ride back into Congress in triumph.
I think the Clinton impeachment was just the beginning. Watching the GOP at work, I think we've entered into an era of politically motivated impeachments.
I'm on the edge of my seat wondering what SteveAR thinks about this.
Mobius:
I'm on the edge of my seat wondering what SteveAR thinks about this.
I would suggest holding your breath instead and keep holding it until I put forth my views on this.
ACORN's critics simply ignore this fact and pretend as if all of these bogus registrations are being turned over to the state by ACORN in an attempt to pass them off as legitimate. They're not; the registration form for "Mickey Mouse" is being turned over because the law requires that it be turned over.
A.L., I'd like to point out one addition to this that I read back when the Right was pushing the meme of ACORN as a vast conspiracy to commit voter fraud for Democrats. Although ACORN is required to turn over all voter registrations in many states, including obviously fraudulent ones, they would typically separate the registrations into different groups. I believe the groups were something like "Obviously fraudulent," "Suspect," and "Apparently valid."
Someone reading your post could think that they were blithely turning in registration that they knew were bogus and not worrying whether the states' Board of Elections (or whatever the appropriate body for checking these things is) caught them or not. I don't believe that was the case.
SteveAR:
I would suggest holding your breath instead and keep holding it until I put forth my views on this.
To paraphrase: "I'll tell you what i think as soon as i have a chance to listen to what Glen Beck tells me to tell you i think."
The other point you skip over is that commentators wringing their hands over registrations for Mickey Mouse almost never say seem to worry about voter disenfranchisement of the sort that occurred in Florida, where law abiding citizens had their registrations rejected because of a broad database search of felons, or through the long lines at the polls in poorer districts, etc.
the thing that bothers me most about the ACORN story is that there is no story. ACORN themselves are the ones who report cases of fraud on the part of their canvassers. If it warrants legal action, they turn these people over to the authorities or just simply fire them. there would be no story unless ACORN themselves wasn't actively involved in rooting out the fraudulent voter information themselves.
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