Who Will Blagojevich Take Down With Him?

The complaint against Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich, who was arrested by federal agents this morning, is rather stunning. The feds apparently wiretapped his phones and recorded conversations of him and his aides attempting to shop around President-Elect Obama's senate seat to the highest bidder. Not only will this likely mean the end of Blagojevich's political career, but it may take down (or at least cause major headaches for) a number of other politicians and public officials.

For instance, the complaint refers to a "Senate Candidate 5" who appears to have been at least the subject of a bribe solicitation. That person's identity is likely to surface at some point and his/her political future may well hinge on exactly what was said in those recorded conversations.

Even more troubling, from a national political perspective, are the references in the complaint to a plan by Blagojevich to trade the seat for an appointment or some other consideration from the Obama administration. Here's what Patrick Fitzgerald's statement says about that plan:

Over the next couple of days – Election Day and the day after – Blagojevich was captured discussing with Deputy Governor A whether he could obtain a cabinet position, such as Secretary of Health and Human Services or the Department of Energy or various ambassadorships. In a conversation with Harris on November 4, Blagojevich analogized his situation to that of a sports agent shopping a potential free agent to the highest bidder. The day after the election, Harris allegedly suggested to Blagojevich that the President-elect could make him the head of a private foundation.
Later on November 5, Blagojevich said to Advisor A, "I’ve got this thing and it’s [expletive] golden, and, uh, uh, I’m just not giving it up for [expletive] nothing. I’m not gonna do it. And, and I can always use it. I can parachute me there," the affidavit states.

Two days later, in a three-way call with Harris and Advisor B, a consultant in Washington, Blagojevich and the others allegedly discussed the prospect of a three-way deal for the Senate 7 appointment involving an organization called "Change to Win," which is affiliated with various unions including the Service Employees International Union (SEIU).

On November 10, Blagojevich, his wife, Harris, Governor General Counsel, Advisor B and other Washington-based advisors participated at different times in a two-hour phone call in which they allegedly discussed, among other things, a deal involving the SEIU. Harris said they could work out a deal with the union and the President-elect where SEIU could help the President-elect with Blagojevich’s appointment of Senate Candidate 1, while Blagojevich would obtain a position as the National Director of the Change to Win campaign and SEIU would get something favorable from the President-elect in the future. Also during that call, Blagojevich agreed it was unlikely that the President-elect would name him Secretary of Health and Human Services or give him an ambassadorship because of all of the negative publicity surrounding him.

In a conversation with Harris on November 11, the charges state, Blagojevich said he knew that the President-elect wanted Senate Candidate 1 for the open seat but "they’re not willing to give me anything except appreciation. [Expletive] them."

It appears that the Obama camp had no interest in playing ball with Blagojevich, which is good news, but the extent to which there is any political fallout for Obama will depend on exactly what was said and by whom. How exactly did Blagojevich feel out the Obama camp? Who spoke to whom? What exactly was said? Were the conservations recorded? I'm sure that a lot of reporters are already digging for answers to these questions.

For the record, "Senate Candidate 1" may well be Valerie Jarrett. Fitzgerald's statement seems to indicate that this candidate is female, was preferred by Obama, and removed her name from consideration at some point in November. Those facts all fit Jarrett. Indeed--and this is pure speculation on my part--the fact that Jarrett removed her name from consideration so quickly may indicate that Blagojevich's people did indeed approach the Obama camp with some sort of quid-pro-quo proposal and it made everyone in Obama's orbit so uncomfortable that they decided to distance themselves from the whole process.

Whatever the case, anyone who had the misfortune of fielding a call from Blagojevich or his staff is likely to have been snared by the federal wiretap. There are a lot of people--politicians, aides, contributors, union officials--who are in a cold sweat this morning trying to remember exactly what they said in their calls with Blagojevich's office. Blagojevich will not be the only person whose career is threatened by this probe.