Two Years Ago

Almost two years ago, in November of 2006, I wrote the following:

What I think the pundits and prognosticators fail to fully appreciate at the moment is the extent to which Obama’s entry into the race—if it happens—will entirely shake up the usual dynamics of presidential politics. Let’s put aside for the moment the fact that Obama is an exceptionally gifted politician, and just consider the following. In 1988, Jesse Jackson won 15 states and picked up almost a third of the delegates to the Democratic National Convention. And he did that without picking up hardly any white votes. If Obama were to run, he might well be able to replicate Jackson’s success among black voters, and he would almost certainly do exponentially better among non-black voters. In other words, he would be a formidable primary candidate.

But I think Deval Patrick’s success hints at an even more interesting dynamic that will arise if Obama should manage to secure the Democratic nomination. If that should happen, it will be THE story. And not just here in the U.S., but around the world. Obama would be the first African-American to win a major party’s presidential nomination. He’d be just one momentous day away from becoming the leader of the free world. No matter what else happens in the campaign, no matter who his opponent is, that single story line will dwarf all others. Throughout the campaign, media coverage will be dominated by discussion of the historical significance of the election. Newspaper and magazine headlines will scream “Is America on the Verge of Making History?” Throughout the country, there will be a pervasive sense that we are on the cusp of a dramatic and important historical event, that we’re about to take a bold new step forward as a nation. And believe me, people will get caught up in it. It will be a potent political phenomenon. Obama’s opponent, whether it be McCain or Romney or whoever, will have to try very hard to counter the sense that he is standing athwart history yelling “stop.”

For a long time, over two years now, I've thought that this day could happen, at least on an intellectual level. I thought most pundits and journalists were underestimating Obama's political skills and overlooking how his candidacy could change the dynamics of both the primary race and the general election.   

On an emotional level, however, I don't think I ever quite internalized what my brain was telling me. Until it actually happened last night, I refused to believe that I could be right. And now that Obama has won, I'm almost at a loss for words.