How Long Before a GOP Comeback?
As we've seen recently, the political winds can shift rather dramatically in a short period of time. When President Clinton was first elected in 1992, his party had majorities in the Senate (56-44) and the House (258-176) almost identical in size to what President Obama will have. Two years later, both were gone.
Similarly, in 2004 President Bush was re-elected and his party added to its majorities in both the Senate and House. Two years later, both majorities were gone.
There's a lot of talk about how the Republican party will have to reinvent itself if it wants to get back into power. I don't think that's necessarily true. As an opposition party--especially one completely removed from the reins of power--you don't need to have good ideas. You just need good slogans. And that's what Republicans do best. If Obama stumbles, you can bet that the Republicans will find a way to capitalize politically.
As long as Republicans are shielded from the consequences of actually implementing their ideas, they do okay. That was essentially the state of play from the days of Barry Goldwater through 2000. During that time, the Republicans never had control of the presidency and both chambers of Congress simultaneously. Throughout that period, the Democrats were able to contain the worst policy impulses of the GOP. That wasn't true from 2000-2006, and the results speak for themselves.
It's almost a cliche by now, but the Republican party is very good at politics and very bad at governing. And now that they are--once again--not responsible for governing, they can devote their full efforts to the activities at which they truly excel: sloganeering and political maneuvering.
Of course, if they manage to regain power, they'll be confronted by the same problem: a lack of any good policy ideas. Which means if they ever manage to gain control of all three branches again, their tenure in power will likely be as brief as it was under Bush. This seems to be the inevitable cycle of American politics.
Fortunately, barring epic failure on Obama's part, it's not likely to be as easy for the Republicans to claw their way back into power this time. First, the memory of GOP failure is still very fresh in people's minds. While they won't need to reinvent themselves entirely, they'll at least have to rebrand themselves. That wasn't the case in 1992, where the GOP actually gained seats in the House and held their numbers in the Senate. Furthermore, while numerically similar, the majorities the Democrats hold now are very different than in 1992. Those majorities were bolstered by conservative Southern Democrats who were a relic of Reconstruction era politics. Those Democrats had little in common with the rest of the caucus and were ripe targets for GOP pick ups. The South had been trending GOP for decades and this realignment was simply accelerated in 1994.
But the evolution of the GOP into a Southern party has triggered a corresponding Democratic realignment in the Northeast and West. That realignment--with Southern seats going to the GOP and Northeastern and Western seats going to the Democrats--is now virtually complete and seems fairly entrenched. So it will be harder for the GOP to gain back their majority than it was before. And that's a good thing. It will take a while to clean up the mess they made.
Similarly, in 2004 President Bush was re-elected and his party added to its majorities in both the Senate and House. Two years later, both majorities were gone.
There's a lot of talk about how the Republican party will have to reinvent itself if it wants to get back into power. I don't think that's necessarily true. As an opposition party--especially one completely removed from the reins of power--you don't need to have good ideas. You just need good slogans. And that's what Republicans do best. If Obama stumbles, you can bet that the Republicans will find a way to capitalize politically.
As long as Republicans are shielded from the consequences of actually implementing their ideas, they do okay. That was essentially the state of play from the days of Barry Goldwater through 2000. During that time, the Republicans never had control of the presidency and both chambers of Congress simultaneously. Throughout that period, the Democrats were able to contain the worst policy impulses of the GOP. That wasn't true from 2000-2006, and the results speak for themselves.
It's almost a cliche by now, but the Republican party is very good at politics and very bad at governing. And now that they are--once again--not responsible for governing, they can devote their full efforts to the activities at which they truly excel: sloganeering and political maneuvering.
Of course, if they manage to regain power, they'll be confronted by the same problem: a lack of any good policy ideas. Which means if they ever manage to gain control of all three branches again, their tenure in power will likely be as brief as it was under Bush. This seems to be the inevitable cycle of American politics.
Fortunately, barring epic failure on Obama's part, it's not likely to be as easy for the Republicans to claw their way back into power this time. First, the memory of GOP failure is still very fresh in people's minds. While they won't need to reinvent themselves entirely, they'll at least have to rebrand themselves. That wasn't the case in 1992, where the GOP actually gained seats in the House and held their numbers in the Senate. Furthermore, while numerically similar, the majorities the Democrats hold now are very different than in 1992. Those majorities were bolstered by conservative Southern Democrats who were a relic of Reconstruction era politics. Those Democrats had little in common with the rest of the caucus and were ripe targets for GOP pick ups. The South had been trending GOP for decades and this realignment was simply accelerated in 1994.
But the evolution of the GOP into a Southern party has triggered a corresponding Democratic realignment in the Northeast and West. That realignment--with Southern seats going to the GOP and Northeastern and Western seats going to the Democrats--is now virtually complete and seems fairly entrenched. So it will be harder for the GOP to gain back their majority than it was before. And that's a good thing. It will take a while to clean up the mess they made.
posted by A.L. at 11:16 AM
3 Comments:
If Obama is competent on national security and the economy, then he is a shoo-in in 2012.
The economy is the main determinant of a candidate's re-election. If there has been a degree of recovery that people feel better off in 2012 than in 2008, then Obama is secure for another four years.
Some successes on the security front will help - capture bin Laden? A Middle East settlement? Soldiers out of Iraq? These will all help.
What I'm hoping for is that people blame Obama for the economy collapsing, the war(s) getting worse, and the waning power of the US. Consequently, a third party is elected in 2012. YAY!
I heard an interview yesterday* with Michael Lind (of the big picture historical analysis) and he said that Reaganite-Thatcher market fundamentalism is dead. I think that the Republican policy ideas on the economy are bad, and have been proven to be bad, for pretty much everybody but the rich. Unregulated, globalized, free market policies diminish the economic power of labor - so naturally they haven't shared in the increased productivity gains over the last 3 decades.
With low-taxes-for-the-rich you can't afford a decent social safety net to replace much of what welfare capitalism used to provide (e.g. pensions, health care). No wonder so many people are feeling distressed.
It's my view that the Republicans can work the social agenda, since there is no empirically clear "right" or "wrong" on issues like abortion or gay marriage.
But in the economic realm? Either the Republicans will win on lies (e.g. lower taxes raise revenue) or by selling (again) free market fundamentalism in the hope that the electorate forgot its recent failure.
What is, or could be, the Republicans' ecomomic pitch going forward?
* Ian Master's Background Briefing show (you can download an MP3 about two week later from his website)
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