Why Pennsylvania?
On Monday, I suggested that the McCain campaign's counter-intuitive strategy of focusing on Pennsylvania--a state where he is currently trailing badly in the polls--while abandoning more promising terrain in places like Colorado and New Mexico, only made sense if the campaign was planning on pursuing "a racially-loaded closing strategy" and figured such a strategy would have "a better chance of putting Pennsylvania in play than Colorado, despite what current poll numbers are saying."
I still fear that may be part of the calculus, but Chris Bowers at OpenLeft offers a pretty compelling alternative explanation of the Pennsylvania strategy. Long story short, Pennsylvania has a lot of electoral votes and it is one of the few traditional battleground states that doesn't have early voting.
Some have suggested that McCain should be pursuing a red state firewall strategy, focusing all of his remaining time and resources on holding onto enough of the states that Bush won in 2004 to eke out a victory. For such a strategy to work, McCain would absolutely have to win Ohio, Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, and Virginia, and could only afford to lose one of the Colorado/New Mexico/Nevada trio.
But with all the early voting, the McCain camp may have concluded that their red state firewall has already been breached (or will be before election day). The most likely sources of concern are Virginia--where Obama has a significant lead in the polls--and the combination of Colorado and New Mexico--where Obama is also doing well. A significant portion of the votes in all three of those states have already been cast and many more will be cast prior to election day.
So it's possible that the McCain campaign is currently operating on the assumption that their red state firewall has already been breached or will be imminently. If that's the assumption, then their only strategy for victory is to target a blue state with enough electoral votes to make up for the loss of a Virginia or a Colorado. And while the task of turning Pennsylvania red seems daunting, it may be their most realistic option.
Pennsylvania is large (21 electoral votes). It almost went red in 2004 (Kerry won by only two points). It's a state that Barack Obama had trouble in during the primaries, and as mentioned above, may be slightly more receptive than other states to a racially-loaded attack strategy. And finally, it doesn't allow early voting, meaning the McCain campaign has a full two weeks to try to turn things around. There's really no other large blue state that meets those criteria.
It's a tough road, but it may be the only one still open.
I still fear that may be part of the calculus, but Chris Bowers at OpenLeft offers a pretty compelling alternative explanation of the Pennsylvania strategy. Long story short, Pennsylvania has a lot of electoral votes and it is one of the few traditional battleground states that doesn't have early voting.
Some have suggested that McCain should be pursuing a red state firewall strategy, focusing all of his remaining time and resources on holding onto enough of the states that Bush won in 2004 to eke out a victory. For such a strategy to work, McCain would absolutely have to win Ohio, Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, and Virginia, and could only afford to lose one of the Colorado/New Mexico/Nevada trio.
But with all the early voting, the McCain camp may have concluded that their red state firewall has already been breached (or will be before election day). The most likely sources of concern are Virginia--where Obama has a significant lead in the polls--and the combination of Colorado and New Mexico--where Obama is also doing well. A significant portion of the votes in all three of those states have already been cast and many more will be cast prior to election day.
So it's possible that the McCain campaign is currently operating on the assumption that their red state firewall has already been breached or will be imminently. If that's the assumption, then their only strategy for victory is to target a blue state with enough electoral votes to make up for the loss of a Virginia or a Colorado. And while the task of turning Pennsylvania red seems daunting, it may be their most realistic option.
Pennsylvania is large (21 electoral votes). It almost went red in 2004 (Kerry won by only two points). It's a state that Barack Obama had trouble in during the primaries, and as mentioned above, may be slightly more receptive than other states to a racially-loaded attack strategy. And finally, it doesn't allow early voting, meaning the McCain campaign has a full two weeks to try to turn things around. There's really no other large blue state that meets those criteria.
It's a tough road, but it may be the only one still open.
posted by A.L. at 10:42 AM
6 Comments:
A.L.,
It would be very painful to "eek" out a living. On the other hand, to "eke" out a living is what many of have done all our lives.
AL, I live in Virginia. It's not a "no excuses" early voting state. I wish it were. You have to have a valid reason to vote absentee, as I have always understood it. http://www.sbe.virginia.gov/cms/Absentee_Voting/Index.html
The point being, of course, is it's a pain to vote early here so I don't think a large percentage will (although I have not seen early numbers). If I'm wrong, I'm happy to stand corrected.
If this guy from PA is right--and he seems to know what he's talking about--McCain is tilting at windmills in PA:
http://whyy.org/blogs/itsourcity/2008/10/17/pa-fast-becoming-a-bridge-to-nowhere-for-mccainpalin-campaign/
I think there's a very good chance the Wright stuff will stay out of the picture - it clearly isn't going to work, and it gives McCain something to respond with when the carnage of this campaign is looked back on - "We did not run a dirty campaign, We never brought up Reverend Wright".
Is there some way McCain can manipulate the results in Pennsylvania? I don't mean him personally, but someone sympathetic to him in power. Like, say, running the results through another computer, as Mark Crispin Miller, talks about in his book about how the elections of 2000 and 2004 were stolen, or maybe we'll find the mysterious disappearance of thousands of eligible Democrats from the voter rolls in Pennsylvania on election day? I'd urge Pennsylvania voters to check their status before then.
McCain/Palin got SCHOOLED in PA! I hope Republicans continue to think that PA is a swing state in future elections so they waste their resources. PA has voted Democrat more times then NJ since 1960. Bye bye Republicans. The Mid-Atlantic and New England regions aren't living in the 1950's like your party base is.
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