Palin's Magical Mystery Tour
Matt Yglesias is puzzled:
If they've reached that conclusion, it makes perfect sense to send Palin to places like West Virginia and Nebraska. She's far less likely to do harm in those places, and there's at least a superficially plausible reason for her to be there. If they sent her to Oklahoma or Utah, on the other hand, it would be too obvious that they were trying to hide her. So they're having her spend as much time as possible in the "lean McCain" states and hoping to minimize the damage. It's a "hide in plain sight" strategy.
Sarah Palin going on a bus tour to West Virginia is a puzzling move. Obviously, if West Virginia is in play, then the McCain-Palin ticket is doomed. There’s no point in focusing on the states that are actually close at the moment, you need to focus on the states that would be close if the election were close and then hope that events and your national media strategy can make the election close.I agree with Matt's logic, but it relies on an implicit assumption. It assumes that Palin is actually an asset to the campaign. What if the McCain campaign has concluded that Palin is a liability among independent and swing voters and that it actually hurts McCain when she visits a state? The polls seem to suggest that's true. And the latest news from Alaska can't help.
If they've reached that conclusion, it makes perfect sense to send Palin to places like West Virginia and Nebraska. She's far less likely to do harm in those places, and there's at least a superficially plausible reason for her to be there. If they sent her to Oklahoma or Utah, on the other hand, it would be too obvious that they were trying to hide her. So they're having her spend as much time as possible in the "lean McCain" states and hoping to minimize the damage. It's a "hide in plain sight" strategy.
posted by A.L. at 11:58 PM
13 Comments:
Old Video footage
of Palin in West Virginia
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lHjNhsZPgms
She just doing research for SNL.
The Plain Sight Express has been reduced from shooting her out of the cannon at the national convention to having her man the shell game booth at the county fair.
I have been arguing since the primary that not only would WV be in play, but based on their Congressional history that Obama would almost certainly win it.
I am 62 years old. WV has not elected a Republican Senator in my life time. The last time they voted for a majority of Republican representatives, I was 5 months old. Since 1968 they have re-elected only two Republicans to more than one term, Arch Moore and Shirley Capito. And, in my lifetime, they have never replaced one Republican Representative with another.
It is very much "in play" and only wasn't in recent elections because of the DLC's strategy of 'only going for sure things.'
I suggest that Palin is still a very valuable asset. The base loves her and sees only what they want to see. The crowds continue to come out for her, not McCain.
I get the feeling that McCain and his campaign leadership have seen the writing on the wall. The economy has handed the election to Obama. They are desperately trying not to "crater". They are not afraid of being remembered as running the most despicable presidential campaign ever. They are terrified of being remembered for being the worst Republican loss since Goldwater.
They can still save West Virginia. (FiveThirtyEight.com has it as a toss-up.) Nebraska splits their electoral votes. Obama could end up taking Omaha and the less rural eastern districts.
Palin is still relevant and will help McCain beat Bob Dole since he can’t beat Barack Obama.
Somebody pointed out on another blog (in comments) that WV is close to the "Appalacian parts" of Ohio and Pennsylvania and that perhaps the local media in those states would cover Palin.
Indeed. Same goes for Yglesias' suggestion that she go help Senators in close races. As Nate Silver asks: Does McCain have cooties?
I can't imagine, given the rhetoric we're seeing, that McCain is doing anything but still trying to win this race. He's been incredibly inflammatory (yesterday evening being a rare exception), and given America's precarious situation, no patriot would behave that way toward someone who they really knew would be the next President. On second thought, no patriot would behave that way toward any civil servant (period). Maybe he does know he's losing and wants to take the ship down with him.
McCain and Palin remind me of Bob Dole toward the end of his campaign screaming "where's the outrage?" to the low-IQ base. Except in this case they are actually stoking the outrage not based on taxes, as Dole did, but on transparently false inflammatory character attacks. Their negatives are going through the roof as she pursues their Country Last campaign through West By God Virginia.
Sister Sarah is the Queen of Low-Info Land.
She attracted a true rabble to her rally in Bethlehem, PA.
The media are moronic too - the way the parcel out "balance"
Maybe if Obama rallies consisted of gangsta-rap with calls of attacks
on law and order - then Balz & Co. would be justified in making the
comparison.
quiddity has a point: VW is close to Ohio and PA, and McCain might win the election if he carries OH and PA. Considering the lopsided votes for Clinton a few months ago in Appalachia, this may not be such a dumb strategy for the Republicans.
Surely this is about photo-ops and broadcast news rather than any on-the-ground campaign strategy. Footage of Palin rallying the base in safe districts helps maintain the illusion that the ticket is still generating enthusiasm and is electorally competitive. Palin, this cycle's one-woman freak show, has a huge, full-time media contingent following her everywhere and footage of her preaching to the converted will, almost certainly, get reasonably positive network coverage. That's the best, perhaps only, thing she can provide her ticket at this stage. They can't risk her blowing it in contested districts or in front of the media, so they put her in front of the voters for whom she can do no wrong. Sensible, really. If I had a VP candidate like her, I'd do exactly the same thing.
lee terry, as tpm points out, the GOP incumbent, has an ad that features an "Obama-terry voter"
And jim Esch might just beat terry in Omaha while Scott kleeb will do well against a popular former governor/ Ag secretary... In Nebraska
Post a Comment
Links to this post:
Create a Link
<< Home