The Fate of the McCain Campaign in Palin's Hands
Vice Presidential debates are generally inconsequential affairs that are almost immediately forgotten. And despite all the hype, tomorrow's debate is unlikely to be an exception to that rule. All Sarah Palin has to do is turn in a mediocre performance (which will easily surpass expectations at this point) and then fade into the background for the next month.
That said, for the first time that I can remember, there is at least a non-negligible chance that a candidate on a major party ticket will crash and burn during a live debate. Palin is clearly suffering from a political version of performance anxiety. She's lost her confidence and is having trouble answering even the easiest of questions. If that happens tomorrow night, if she manages to psyche herself out up there on live TV, it would be absolutely calamitous for the McCain campaign, which is already on the ropes. It could be the knock out blow.
I wonder how many antacids McCain and his campaign staff will be popping tomorrow night while Palin's on stage.
Honestly, though, I don't expect Palin will be as bad as she was with Couric. What made the Couric interviews so devastating was Couric's tendency (which is actually rare among reporters) to ask follow up questions when she got a non-responsive answer. When Palin would filibuster, Couric would repeat the question or press her for specifics. That's what elicited her most embarrassing responses.
But the format of the debate won't allow for those kind of follow up questions. Palin can be as non-responsive as she pleases. Moreover, on at least half the questions, Biden will have to answer first, which will give Palin time to think about her answer and allow her to build off whatever Biden says. And finally, the questions aren't likely to be out of left field. There's a lot of ground to cover and not much time to do it, so it's very likely that all of the questions she'll be asked will have been anticipated by her coaches and she'll have set answers ready.
In other words, unless she completely psyches herself out and blanks out up there, she's likely to turn in at least a mediocre performance. But given her performance over the last week, I wouldn't completely rule out the crash and burn scenario either. And if she flames out, the McCain campaign is going to flame out with her. I'm betting McCain wishes he picked someone like Mitt Romney right about now.
P.S. This is just painful.
That said, for the first time that I can remember, there is at least a non-negligible chance that a candidate on a major party ticket will crash and burn during a live debate. Palin is clearly suffering from a political version of performance anxiety. She's lost her confidence and is having trouble answering even the easiest of questions. If that happens tomorrow night, if she manages to psyche herself out up there on live TV, it would be absolutely calamitous for the McCain campaign, which is already on the ropes. It could be the knock out blow.
I wonder how many antacids McCain and his campaign staff will be popping tomorrow night while Palin's on stage.
Honestly, though, I don't expect Palin will be as bad as she was with Couric. What made the Couric interviews so devastating was Couric's tendency (which is actually rare among reporters) to ask follow up questions when she got a non-responsive answer. When Palin would filibuster, Couric would repeat the question or press her for specifics. That's what elicited her most embarrassing responses.
But the format of the debate won't allow for those kind of follow up questions. Palin can be as non-responsive as she pleases. Moreover, on at least half the questions, Biden will have to answer first, which will give Palin time to think about her answer and allow her to build off whatever Biden says. And finally, the questions aren't likely to be out of left field. There's a lot of ground to cover and not much time to do it, so it's very likely that all of the questions she'll be asked will have been anticipated by her coaches and she'll have set answers ready.
In other words, unless she completely psyches herself out and blanks out up there, she's likely to turn in at least a mediocre performance. But given her performance over the last week, I wouldn't completely rule out the crash and burn scenario either. And if she flames out, the McCain campaign is going to flame out with her. I'm betting McCain wishes he picked someone like Mitt Romney right about now.
P.S. This is just painful.
posted by A.L. at 10:45 PM
10 Comments:
A wise man once wrote: "The fate of a country may depend on a single battle, but there is always a set of circumstances that leads to the country depending on that battle".
The subtext is that if you are dependent for survival on winning a single battle (which is a two-horse race or a 50-50 chance), then you are in a pretty bad way to start with.
How has it come to pass that John McCain's campaign is dependent on the debate performance of this VP selection? The fact that it has come to pass is in fact sufficient comment on McCain's decision-making to make him a poor choice as President.
Even if Sarah Palin turns in a stellar performance, it may revive McCain's hopes temporarily, but it is hard to see how it might provide him with a path to victory.
I just watched the video you linked to and then found another one that juxtaposed the two candidates (on separation of church and state) over there as well.
Biden is confident, articulate and intelligent.
Palin is...
What can I say?
This ought to be interesting tonight.
I'm afraid this will be far too painful for me to watch. I can't even make it through one of her clips so far. I guess it's a combination of empathy for her plight and the grating effect of that Fargo-esque delivery. I'll just read about it in the morning...
Palin will overcome her nerves by going on the attack with all the self-righteous right wing nonsense we've heard so many times. If Biden wastes his time defending against the lies and distortions he won't be able to make his own case. If he ignores her entirely, the nonsense will stand. McCain tried to do that also, but Obama handled it well ... a quick "that is simply not true," a few sharp and memorable counter punches, and on to his making his core case.
She'll be wired, of course. Do you think they'd risk NOT wiring her?
All she has to do is just sound halfway coherent and everyone will breath a huge sigh of relief. Her bar for 'winning' is ridiculously low.
I just hope someone brings a radio jammer.
I realize that this will sound fantastically conspiratorial, but I have been having nagging suspicions that the whole Palin-as-moron schtick is a farce.
Why not? George Bush perfected it as a way to deflect thoughtful, meaningful discourse. If the sound bite is "Too many OB-GYNs aren't able to practice their love with women all across this country", then how can we have a serious discussion about presidential policy and that particularly important facet of our failing health care system?
If Palin's sound bites are dominated by the likes of Putin's head, then how can we talk seriously about her stance on abortion, homosexuality or evolution?
I expect the debate to go well enough for Palin that the base will eat it up, but I doubt there will be some great reveal that she's been faking it. She has to maintain her powers of distraction.
SNL alumna Victoria Jackson made a career out of a very similar repertoire. I would give good odds that she is consulting for the McCain campaign. Visit www.victoriajackson.com and www.youtube.com/watch?v=nfjs9aNtlgw ...the kool-aid runs quite deep.
I share AL's suspicion that last week's disastrous campaign suspension was in response to the Palin/Couric interview, but I wonder if it wasn't meant to draw attention to it rather than away. If that's the case, the move succeeded brilliantly. Everything is in place for this to be the most watched debate in history. The train wreck stops tonight. ...A few well placed zingers at Obama and a gaffe or two by Biden and McCain's bad week will become a vague memory.
Occam's razor would dictate that Palin is simply in over her head, but presidential politics is lousy with anti-razors.
as demonstrated this week by the attacks on Ifill because of her books, any follow-up question, no matter how fair, will be deemed a bias attack. what a sad state of affairs our democracy is in.
But of course we remember a debate in which the candidate could crash and burn - Quayle-Bentsen in 1988... and in fact Quayle did pretty well until the unfortunate attempt to compare himself to JFK that gave Bentsen the opening for his famous line. And of course it did nothing for the dynamics of the race except really push Quayle as an over-reaching idiot in most people's minds (though that was cemented by subsequent events).
Again, Quayle-Gore-Stockdale in 1992 was supposed to be a chance to redeem himself, when he read Gore's book the night before or whatever, but that ended up fading off into irrelevance.
Point being, we have a precedent for Palin - Bentsen-Quayle in 1988 - and unless there's something like the JFK line, it'll end up reinforcing both sides and changing nothing.
But of course we remember a debate in which the candidate could crash and burn - Quayle-Bentsen in 1988.
While I agree that Quayle had a similar image problem, there was never really any risk that he would completely tank the debate. Quayle had been in Congress for 12 years, both as a Senator and Representative. He was conversant on national issues, and had given numerous interviews and press conferences prior to the debate, and in none of them had he performed nearly as badly as Palin did with Couric.
Palin's potential floor tonight is much lower than Quayle's was going into his debate.
I just saw this which confirms my suspicion that she'll come out swinging, as I posted a couple of times here:
"Sarah Palin plans to go on the attack in tonight’s debate, hitting Joe Biden for what she will call his foreign policy blunders and penchant for adopting liberal positions on taxes and other issues, according to campaign officials involved in prepping her for tonight’s showdown."
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