All Signs Point to Ugly
According to John King of CNN, the McCain campaign is all but giving up on Colorado, New Mexico, and Iowa and will instead focus on pulling out a narrow electoral college victory by winning Florida, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia, and staging a "comeback in Pennsylvania."
At first glance, that's an exceptionally odd strategy. The Pollster.com average currently has Pennsylvania at +15.2 for Obama compared to a +6.7 Obama advantage in Colorado (and +7.5 in New Mexico).
So if John King is right, the McCain campaign thinks it has a better shot at pulling off an upset in Pennsylvania (a blue state) than in holding Colorado (a red state), despite much more favorable current polling numbers in Colorado. What could they possibly be thinking?
Unfortunately, I suspect the answer can be found in another headline from today: Rick Davis: Rethinking Playing the Rev. Wright Card.
I'm certain that the McCain campaign has done polling on how Rev. Wright plays in various parts of the country, and I suspect that reactions out West (Colorado, New Mexico) differ significantly from reactions in the Appalachian region (Ohio, Virginia, and Pennsylvania) and the South (North Carolina, Florida). And if that's true, the calculation may be that a racially-loaded closing strategy may have a better chance of putting Pennsylvania in play than Colorado, despite what current poll numbers are saying.
I hope I'm wrong, but I just don't see any other explanation. Either John King is wrong or things are about to get really ugly.
At first glance, that's an exceptionally odd strategy. The Pollster.com average currently has Pennsylvania at +15.2 for Obama compared to a +6.7 Obama advantage in Colorado (and +7.5 in New Mexico).
So if John King is right, the McCain campaign thinks it has a better shot at pulling off an upset in Pennsylvania (a blue state) than in holding Colorado (a red state), despite much more favorable current polling numbers in Colorado. What could they possibly be thinking?
Unfortunately, I suspect the answer can be found in another headline from today: Rick Davis: Rethinking Playing the Rev. Wright Card.
I'm certain that the McCain campaign has done polling on how Rev. Wright plays in various parts of the country, and I suspect that reactions out West (Colorado, New Mexico) differ significantly from reactions in the Appalachian region (Ohio, Virginia, and Pennsylvania) and the South (North Carolina, Florida). And if that's true, the calculation may be that a racially-loaded closing strategy may have a better chance of putting Pennsylvania in play than Colorado, despite what current poll numbers are saying.
I hope I'm wrong, but I just don't see any other explanation. Either John King is wrong or things are about to get really ugly.
posted by A.L. at 7:30 PM
22 Comments:
I think you're being a bit too pessimistic here. I understand the past few elections have made us libs/leftists/progressives wary, but there are reasons to be upbeat about the news of McCain's withdrawal. Even if he plays the Wright card, the Obama campaign has been pretty good at counter-attacking most of the smears the McCain campaign has directed at them, and I'm fairly sure Plouffe et al already have something lined up in case Wright gets mentioned. They'd be silly not to. Lest we forget that Obama already had to deal with the Wright controversy during the primaries.
But I think what's more important is that I don't think that people actually care all that much about Wright. Sure, the wingnuts and the Republican base might, but independents, moderates and so-called floating voters? They know Obama may or may not have hung out with a few shady characters in the past, but in the greater scheme of things I think they couldn't really care less, just as they didn't care that Clinton had a few extramarital affairs here and there -- after all, they knew about these things and yet they still elected him. Twice. The same will apply to Obama -- this election has, to some extent, been a re-run of 1992 (ie. Republicans playing culture wars to distract from a dire economy), and just as playing culture wars didn't work for the Republicans then, so once again people will trust the Democrat to do a better job at steering the economy out of perilous waters than his Republican rival.
Besides, if Ayers didn't work, and if the insinuations and smears that Obama is a Muslim/terrorist/Muslim terrorist/cross-dressing gypsy from Planet Zogg didn't work either, then who's to say that Wright will work? I'm gonna throw caution in the wind and say that people will regard it for what it is - a transparent act of blatant desperation. It's pretty much all the McCain campaign has offered the people in the last month or so, and I for one think the American people have a much better BS detector than we or our rivals sometimes give them credit for.
No, I actually think that there's something else behind McCain's decision to withdraw from IA, NM and CO, and it's actually quite simple: McCain is running out of money and resources. The UK Guardian has reported that McCain is desperately running short of funds and currently has a mere $47m at his disposal (compared to Obama having more than thrice as much). I think that might have more to do with McCain's decision to withdraw from those states than some big devious masterplan.
Problem with Wright, is Hillary used it in full force and she lost. If McCain brings it out again (and I have no doubt he will), it's old news and plays in to the "desperation" meme that's already hanging over the McCain campaign.
PA may make sense. McCain may see his only hope as the race card, and the Appalachian racism which would give him PA and Ohio. If he can also get Florida, where his polling isn't bad, the PA/OH/FL combination would be quite an asset.
I'm very confident Obama will take Florida, the ground organization he has in the state is second to none.
It seems that every day McCain loses a little more of his humanity.
I'm not sure right now who he reminds me of more: The Claude Rains character in “Mr. Smith Goes To Washington”, or Humphrey Bogart’s Captain Queeg in “The Caine Mutiny”.
“I tried to run the campaign cleanly, but the Democrats fought me at every turn. If they don’t want government financing, fine, let them. They encouraged the people to laugh at me, calling me erratic. I blame Senator Obama for not agreeing to town hall meetings. Ah, but the Ayers! That’s where I had them! They laughed at me and made jokes, but I proved beyond the shadow of a doubt, and with, with geometric logic, the Obama did pal around with terrorists. And I would have produced Rev. Wright, if they hadn't pulled me out of action. I know now that they were only trying to protect some fellow terrorist.”
I don't really trust John King. But even if McCain does play the "Wright card", it will seem desperate. That said, I'm not taking anything for granted this election.
Volunteer, donate, do whatever it takes! We must win.
Yep, donate. I said screw it and threw in more money today. I'm not gona be the one who said Obama has enough money, I don't need to give again. Please don't get complacent - reach down for a few more bucks, whatever you can spare, at the end here. We're up against a lot of voter suppression, still too many of the damn paper-trail-less machines, and who knows what last gasp efforts by McCain. We gota win this one folks, so do whatever extra you can.
I think McCain would be making a big mistake, playing the "Wright" card.
He was badly burned by the William Ayers fiasco. Over the last week, he was gained a 0.5% on Obama, probably a statistical fluctuation.
All he can do is grit his teeth and plough on. I think he has no options left really - he has to play out the hand he was dealt (and the one he dealt himself!).
The importance of race in the election can be judged by this Nate Silver (www.fivethirtyeight.com) story:
In "racist" Western Pennsylvania, an Obama canvasser approached and knocked at a house. A middle-aged women appeared, and the canvasser asked her who was she voting for.
She has to ask her husband who was watching a game in the back room. The canvasser hears him yell: "We're voting for the n***er!".
Turning to the canvasser, the woman repeated brightly in a matter of fact voice: "We're voting for the n***er".
I suppose McCain might still win back their vote?
Colour me paranoid, but I think there are three likely strategies, all of which can be implemented in the States mentioned:
1. Voter suppression
2. Race baiting
3. (gulp) Voter machine rigging
I hesitate before typing that last one but then I think, once you are prepared to engage in race baiting and blatant lying, how much further is it to tacitly accept the help of a group of techies who can, with a magnet and a handheld device, implant a virus in a voting machine? Check out the report of voting rights officials in Penn. In 2000, we were cowed into going along with the disenfranchisement of the Florida Secretary of State. Will we be as timid in 2008 when the Ohio and Florida exit polls are 10 points out?
The McCain campaign about to turn ugly? noooo, never. Republicans are the most honest straightforward party there is.
I think both McCain and Palin have plans on visiting Colorado this week.
AL, Chris Bowers doesn't believe McCain is really pulling out of CO, as that would be suicidal. I think he has a point.
http://openleft.com/showDiary.do;jsessionid=259FBA1525BAB144399FECE551877C67?diaryId=9259
Tactics-wise, Rev. Wright is still a possibility but it would probably backfire horribly. Smears and race baiting have already done about as much damage as they can. Forget independents at this point, McCain is going to have to improve turnout among the core Republicans. Appearing weak and desperate is not going to help him.
Strategy-wise, the McCain campaign is running out of time and money. They can't afford to have geography work against them on top of everything else. Having to shuttle the candidates back and forth across the country is horribly inefficient. They need switch to a half court defense and stick to Florida and the Appalachian states.
McCain's strategic withdrawal is a testament to both Obama's fund raising prowess and the highly energized grass roots network he has setup across the country.
knife fight in a telephone booth, that's all I'm sayin'.
Playing the Rev. Wright card would be a big mistake. Perpetually leading the press and pundits to believe you MIGHT play the Rev. Wright card is a very worthy tactic. It's free and it keeps your hands clean.
McStain's campaign will use ANYTHING that reminds voters that Obama's a Negro. Their whole campaign is designed to provide WHITE voters with 'plausible', guilt-absolving excuses for NOT voting for Obama.
That's it. The whole deal, right there...
Hey Dave,
Hillary didn't use Wright. The media - ABC, Hannity - pushed Wright.
We haven't seen a candidate push Wright yet.
In reply to Bill Keane:
Playing the Wright card fits perfectly with the strategy of vote rigging—because what you need, if you are going to rig votes, is an explanation for why the polls and the actual voting don't tally. The so-called "Bradley Effect" is one such "explanation." So injecting a lot of race bating into the election is a way to seem to put the "Bradley Effect" into play—notwithstanding the fact that there is absolutely no evidence that people responding to polls are predisposed to lie in Obama's favor since there are plenty of decent reasons to favor McCain over Obama.
Actually, at this point I have lots of worries about a "Diebold Effect," the question being how brazen any rigging would be given that results from machines are going to be scrutinized very carefully.
The problem with the Wright card is that PA is probably the state with the strongest knowledge and memory of the entire Wright business, from the initial blast to Obama's race speech (in Philadelphia!), all in the context of the ONLY primary in late March-April 2008. Things like the Wright card only work if they are at least somewhat net-new. If Wright was litigated anywhere in the primaries, it was in PA. McCain's team seems to forget this.
In reply to anbruch
Agreed. This is where the politicization of ther DOJ comes in. We have focussed on false accusations of "voter fraud" to suppress turnout. However, this ploy also works to justify rigging (just squarin' the ol' ledger!). Finally, it prepares the media to play the old "balanced coverage" game when allegations of machine rigging. If the DOJ does nothing because it is politicized, and the media chooses to be balanced rather than accurate, they just might pull off some brazen rigging. Again, this is paranoid stuff, but I really believe these people are capable of it.
One other point -
Does McCain seriously think he can take PA? Pollster has Obama at 53.8%, almost 15 (FIFTEEN) points ahead of McCain.
Admittedly, we'd do well to remember New Hampshire, but still... it's a long shot for McCain.
(Oh wait, you already made that point in your original post. Ignore me then.)
it may be a bad choice, but to give mccain credit, PA doesn't have early voting at all. so, while the writing may be on the wall elsewhere, he could turn it around there if a miracle happens before election day. Furthermore, he's almost certainly betting that the status quo will not work. Obama has Iowa and NM in the bag, with the Kerry states, leaving him five EV's short. they are too many tossups for mccain to defend successfully, so if he doesn't take a big blue state, a Nevada or Indiana or Virginia pushes Obama over the edge. It may seem desperate, but I honestly have to agree with the strategy - there just aren't many endgames that will work unless he takes a big blue. without PA, he has to run the gambit of littler red states to win. he can't take the chance that one little loss will give Obama a 273 265 victory (or something). it may be a long shot, but it may be the only shot.
Post a Comment
Links to this post:
Create a Link
<< Home