Will McCain Play the Wright Card?
(updated)
With just over a month left before the election, and with the conventions and the first debate already in the rear view mirror, the candidates are running out of opportunities to change the trajectory of the race. Voters opinions are solidifying and will become increasingly hard to change. And if the polls are to be believed, John McCain is the candidate who desperately needs to change the trajectory of the race. He's behind right now and appears to be losing ground.
So the question is this: if McCain's deficit in the polls persists, where will his desperation lead him?
When the Reverend Wright controversy surfaced during the primaries, the conventional wisdom among the commentariat was that if Obama became the Democratic nominee, the Republicans would flood the airwaves with attack ads featuring various inflammatory Wright soundbites. I wasn't so sure. Back in March, I wrote:
With just over a month left before the election, and with the conventions and the first debate already in the rear view mirror, the candidates are running out of opportunities to change the trajectory of the race. Voters opinions are solidifying and will become increasingly hard to change. And if the polls are to be believed, John McCain is the candidate who desperately needs to change the trajectory of the race. He's behind right now and appears to be losing ground.
So the question is this: if McCain's deficit in the polls persists, where will his desperation lead him?
When the Reverend Wright controversy surfaced during the primaries, the conventional wisdom among the commentariat was that if Obama became the Democratic nominee, the Republicans would flood the airwaves with attack ads featuring various inflammatory Wright soundbites. I wasn't so sure. Back in March, I wrote:
[W]hile I have no doubt that a few 527 groups will try to attack Obama on this issue, I don't think the McCain campaign is going to want to go anywhere near it. It will look like a direct appeal to people's prejudices and it won't play well in the media.Though McCain has run a far less honorable campaign than I had anticipated, my prediction has held up so far. While there have been some Wright ads put out by independent groups in places like Michigan, the McCain campaign, for the most part, hasn't gone there.
I don't think that necessarily says anything positive about McCain, though. Given the way he's run his campaign, I'm convinced he would authorize any attack he thought would work. I think the reason we haven't seen the Wright card played yet is that McCain and his advisers are genuinely not sure how it would go over. Could it scare some voters away from Obama? Certainly. Could it look like an overt appeal to racism and generate a backlash, especially among the media? That's also a distinct possibility.
In other words, it's a big gamble, too big a gamble to make while you're within shooting distance in the polls. But big gambles start to look better when you're trailing by a lot and running out of time. If Obama continues to maintain a decent lead in the polls, I would not be surprised to see the good reverend make an appearance in a McCain ad soon.
That may end up being the last hurdle Obama faces on his way to the White House.
In other words, it's a big gamble, too big a gamble to make while you're within shooting distance in the polls. But big gambles start to look better when you're trailing by a lot and running out of time. If Obama continues to maintain a decent lead in the polls, I would not be surprised to see the good reverend make an appearance in a McCain ad soon.
That may end up being the last hurdle Obama faces on his way to the White House.
UPDATE: Shorter Bill Kristol: It's time to play the Wright card.
My guess is that if McCain follows this advice, he'll wait until after Oct. 15 (the date of the final debate) to do so. If he hasn't generated any positive poll movement by then, it'll be true desperation time. Plus, if he plays the Wright card before the debates are done, he'll likely be forced to defend the strategy during a debate, which he probably doesn't want to do. It would also give Obama a chance to use the free media of the debate to defend himself.
posted by A.L. at 9:50 PM
16 Comments:
Invoking the "Wright Card" might just prompt some independent pro-Obama groups to highlight Palin's religious eccentricities.
How do you think Obama's campaign should handle the inevitable Rev. Wright attack?
One would think that they have a plan ready.
I have to agree with anonymous. From what I understand, the McCain campaign seems to think that they made a tactical error in going after Obama for supposed connection to Fannie Mae because it opened them up to a long (and continuing to unravel) series of revelations about Rick Davis and Davis' connections to Fannie.
That being said, I don't think they will be too eager to come after Obama on Rev. Wright because (1) it opens them up to charges of bringing race into things, (2) Sarah Palin has much more direct and telling connections to an even more radical church (i.e. witch-hunts and praying people out of being homosexuals), (3) Obama already dealt with the Rev. Wright thing during the primary, so he will undoubtedly be ready with a response and the media won't buy into it the way they did the first time around, and finally (4) it adds to the public perception that McCain is running the more negative campaign (although I doubt that would matter too much to the campaign at this point).
This doesn't guarantee that they won't try to go for it, but if they are hoping to hold on to it as some kind of knock out "November Surprise" I think they'll be disappointed.
So far McCain has gotten a pass from MSM on Palin's religious views. If he chooses to play the Rev. Wright card, some one might bring up the widely circulated video of Palin being protected from witchcraft by one of the preachers in her church, Wasilla Assembly of God.
Ms. Palin, although born a Roman Catholic, was baptized in and attended that very fundamental christian church for about 20 years, until just before she decided to run for statewide office.
Ms. Palin's beliefs mirror those of that church. These are people who are waiting for Armageddon, who are willing to go to any length to bring the second coming of Christ and the rapture. Mr. McCain's campaign would be smart to leave well enough alone.
A good point from other blogs is that it is obvious Obama has a coherent strategy, while McCain is just making it up as he goes along.
I think this is also dawning on the public. There is a feel about the Obama campaign that is has been running seamlessly along a single track for 20 months with the destination set for the White House. Even when panic set in last month and Obama seemed to be losing that momentum, he hardly changed the tone or the content of his speeches. He is managing to communicate a relaxed, confident style that I think has won over many people, particularly in a time of crisis.
McCain on the other hand has jumped all over the map. He opened with "Obama Not Ready to Lead", then leaped to the Sarah Palin pick, then got lost in the economic jungle, then went through a fake "suspension" of his campaign, threatened not to debate, and now has gone to ground somewhere in Washington.
In the debate, his public persona was ill-tempered and uneasy. He has a certin edginess about his character that is not attractive. In the comparison of temperaments, Obama is proving the better, as he also is about vision and communicating his message.
John McCain seems to crave the excitement of the unexpected and has a penchant for the gambler's throw. That may be ok in a dogfight with an enemy fighter, but it is not the way to run a country. His campaign has exposed these character defects. It is the difference between a strategist and a (not always successful) tactician.
So now he may return to "Not Ready to Lead", or throw in "Reverend Wright the Angry Black Man" for good measure. But it has a forced and gimmicky feel to it, and just expose McCain again as an unconvincing improvisor.
Far from being the leader, McCain has spent the summer reacting to Obama's strategy of building a gradual and accelerating momentum. It has been like Grant's advance on Richmond in 1864-65. Lee was a great tactician and really punished Grant on occasions. But in the end, the superior strategy won.
As to Sarah's beliefs... I just read this and shook my head. I myself and a religious person* (albeit one found rather far to the left), and Palin's outlook has been far more distressing to me than anything Wright ever said.
At this point, there is that smell of desperation about the McCain campaign, but I wonder if they would so foolishly bring up Wright at this point?
And as noted, the 527s could be the stone throwers, trying to keep a line between the stones and the throwers.
What I keep reading about, spurious perhaps, is that Sarah will step down for "family and personal reasons."
That allows someone like Pawlenty or Romney to step in and perhaps save McCain at the 11th hour.
It all stinks.
*truth be told, i found this blog due to a link from a catholic blog, so there!
AL, I'm far more worried about bin Laden coming out with a last minute tape threatening the US or even endorsing Obama (seriously). I suspect some sort of message from bin Laden is inevitable.
I think the Wright thing has worn itself out. And the "McCain is desperate" meme has already begun to take hold with the media, which Obama can use to dismiss a Wright ad.
From the recent NYT article we know McCain likes to gamble. The article made it sound like an addiction, which would partially explain his erratic behavior in this campaign. But if flips to Wright he's going to come up snake eyes and crap out.
There is the scary tape of McCain's running mate receiving an incantation to protect her from witches. She thinks the Iraq war is a "mission from God." And she believes humans and dinosaurs walked the earth together 6000 years ago (in nearby dangerous Russia?). Having a lunatic airhead as a running mate precludes many strategies McCain might otherwise wish to use.
The difference is that Obama separated himself from Wright, but McCain so far is sticking with Palin.
It's more likely we'll start seeing imaginary code red terrorist warnings and some cooked up pseudo threat that requires his entire focus so that he can arrogantly claim Obama "does not understand."
Re: briefman,
Palin can't step down - she would destroy McCain's base. Since her candidacy began, the religious right has stepped up to support McCain ... manning phones, offices etc. If she left, they'd just suffer a total collapse of morale.
Worse, many might just give up the fight and would possibly not even turn out to vote, handing the Democrats the Presidency and more than 60 Senate seats.
And that's not even considering what would happen to McCain's image of the candidate with executive experience and decision-making skills.
No, the consequences of dropping Palin now are too disastrous to contemplate. Unless a humungous scandal breaks, she has more value on the ticket that off it, even though she was a terrible choice.
The main worries for Obama are an international incident making people re-consider McCain as a leader for dangerous times. An Osama bin Laden tape would not in itself do damage - I think Obama could cope with that.
Indeed, let me say that bin Laden would relish McCain as a reckless leader whom he could easily lure into a misstep. He might certainly try to hinder Obama's campaign if he could.
On the whole I think this week will be another week lost for McCain in that he and his staff will have to focus on preparing Palin for the debate. I expect a draw ... I do not think Biden has the style to go for a kill, and he should not behave like McCain last week.
A draw means more time lost for McCain to get his message across. It no-lose for Obama-Biden. Even though Bentsen destroyed Quayle in 1988, it had little impact on the election result. Biden should just stick at being Good Old Uncle Joe and not make mistakes.
If Palin hangs herself, well and good.
I'm not too worried about Osama Bin Laden as the October Surprise.
The Administration is already downplaying his significance - claiming that Bin Laden was 'not the mastermind of 9/11', which is unlikely if they were about to reel him in on McCain's behalf.
Will McCain try to use Wright? Do you even have to ask? Of course he will. Hell Hillary tried to do it and McCain has shown much more enthusiasm for the "fun stuff" than her. I'd assume he is saving it for the weekend before the election so there isn't enough time for a backlash to build.
As others have pointed out, if McCain plays the Wright card (or rather, when he does), then there are plenty of skeletons in Palin's closet that the Obama campaign will be more than happy to point out, irrespective of whether it happens before or after the debates. Not to mention that it would make McCain look extremely desperate, which is precisely what it would be.
I also don't believe that Palin will drop from the ticket, because it would effectively destroy the McCain campaign. I think it really is a case of damned-if-she-does-damned-if-she-doesn't. If she stays she potentially embarasses McCain even further, but if she goes the press will scream "Eagleton!" and it would be all but over - plus the base would be completely disillusioned. McCain may even struggle to hold onto states like Georgia. But who knows what the next five weeks will hold in store, bearing in mind that Palin looked like the savior of the GOP a mere week ago.
(Or rather, she was spun to look like the savior of the GOP, because to my mind that rabble posing as a political party is utterly beyond salvation, but I suppose that's neither here nor there.)
As we stew about Palin's religious belief, some of which do sound really out there, please remember that Pentecostalism is the fastest growing religion in the world.
And that includes the U.S., right here.
There are many more of them than, say, Episcopalians, and so they don't seem so weird to many people any more.
Are you kidding me? As soon, as he plays the Wright card- the Obama camp will play Keating 5 especially with all of this bailout talk which one is more damaging? They honestly don't want to go down that aisle.
I should be a political strategist. i saw palin coming weeks before she was chosen, and ive seen rev. wright coming in oct. for months now. this is how it goes: mccain has to play rev. wright but it's a mistake. mccain might play: rev. wright farrakhan combo or rev wright gd ammerica,but obama will counter with keating 5 and here's the election. obama will counter with palin's pastor and pastor hagee combo spewing anti-semitism. and with that mccain will have lost the election because an obama counter add featuring the antisemitism of pastor hagee and palin's pastor will push florida to obama. mccain will lose if he goes rev. wright but i can't see how he will resist it.
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