A Narrative on the Verge of Taking Hold

(updated below)

The hardest thing to do in politics is to create a negative press narrative about your opponent. It requires lots of effort, extraordinary message discipline, and a little bit of help from your opponent himself. But when it works, it can change the course of an election.

In 2004, the Bush/Cheney campaign decided that it wanted to create a narrative about John Kerry being a “flip-flopper.” So the campaign compiled a list of Kerry’s supposed flip-flops and distributed talking points to every surrogate and media outlet. In the weeks that followed, every right-leaning columnist, pundit, politician, and campaign operative repeatedly called Kerry a flip-flopper. The Bush/Cheney campaign itself aggressively pushed the narrative by adding pointed lines to the candidates’ stump speeches and strategically releasing commercials--such as the famous windsurfing commercial--that drove the point home. It didn’t take long for the media to pick up the accusation and begin repeating it endlessly. And the jokes from the late night comedians soon followed. A media narrative had been born. And it hurt John Kerry badly. A lot of voters who agreed with him on the issues ended up voting for Bush because they thought Kerry would tell them anything to get elected. They just didn’t trust him.

There is a similar narrative emerging right now about John McCain and Sarah Palin, a narrative fueled by the flurry of rather brazen lies that both have repeated over the last two weeks. The press corps has clearly taken notice, as evidenced by the multitude of stories over the last few days by major news outlets chronicling the McCain campaign’s descent into dishonesty. And for reasons I don’t really understand, the McCain campaign seems determined to help this narrative gain steam. This morning Karl Rove made a statement that didn't help, and on the campaign trail today, Sarah Palin again repeated her Bridge to Nowhere lie (after having left it out of her speeches in Alaska, where people know better). But despite the McCain campaign’s best efforts, the narrative hasn’t quite taken hold yet. At the moment, it’s like a pile of kindling ready to ignite. And it’s up to the Obama campaign to give it the spark it needs.

The goal this week for the Obama campaign should be to do or say something each day that drives the conversation toward the issue of McCain and Palin’s honesty. They can do this through the release of new campaign ads or by making statements on the campaign trail that the press will pick up and run with. I’ve already laid out exactly what I would say if I were running the campaign (and I still think that would be the most effective way to push this narrative to the next level), but there are other ways to go about doing it. Whatever they say, though, it has to be catchy enough to force the news networks to cover it. And they have to maintain really tight message discipline over the next few days.

We’ll know they’re getting the job done if the cable news networks are introducing segments with questions like: “does McCain (or Palin) have an honesty problem?” Or “how far is too far when it comes to stretching the truth?” As long as the topic of conversation is lying, it will benefit Obama. With some luck, the late night shows and Saturday Night Live will pick up on the meme and start mocking McCain and Palin for their ridiculous lying and resume padding.

That’s how the game is played. That’s how narratives are born. Republicans have long understood how this process works and have been trying very hard this election cycle to push the “Obama as celebrity” narrative into the media. They’ve had some success, but not nearly as much as in past election cycles. And the choice of Sarah Palin as VP blunted their efforts to some extent. If Obama can succeed in generating a negative media narrative about his opponents—something recent Democratic nominees haven’t been able to do—he’ll be in good shape heading into November.

UPDATE: Some good news on the campaign front this morning (unlike the economic front). First, the Obama campaign has a new hard-hitting ad out that accuses McCain, in the strongest words possible, of lying. It's exactly what they needed to do. They clearly get it.

Second, Marc Ambinder agrees with my reading of the current emerging narrative. He writes:

The Press Has Turned -- The press has decided that McCain's distortions are more consequential than Obama's distortions, and they are calling McCain out for them. A "narrative" has been created. This turn has been accompanied by cheers from the pundit class that Obama has gotten meaner. Conservative activists may retrench.