Bait or Bluff?

Commenting on the McCain campaign's newest ad, which looks and sounds like something crafted by a fourth grader, The Politico's Jonathan Martin writes:

Keeping with this strategy, "Disrespectful" is less TV ad than political bait. McCain's campaign is trying to rule out of bounds criticism of Palin and daring Obama and Biden to keep it up. And in tempting Democrats to keep up the focus on Palin, they're hoping for a continued back-and-forth that only fires up the GOP base, keeps the focus on identity and character and mutes discussion of core issues on which Republicans are viewed in low esteem by much of the public.

I completely disagree with that assessment. As Martin's colleague Ben Smith reports, this ad wasn't even released to reporters by the McCain campaign (like they do with every other ad). They just started airing it. It only came to the attention of reporters via the Obama campaign. This ad isn't bait. It's a fundamentally defensive ad, an attempt to inoculate Palin from the scrutiny she is going to receive once her novelty wears off. While the McCain campaign is no doubt thrilled with the way the initial rollout of Palin has gone, they're also very worried about what happens next.

And they should be. As last night's interview demonstrated, Palin still has some difficult hurdles to jump. Because so little is known about her or her views, her every word is going to be hyper-scrutinized, especially on foreign policy issues. And while many voters first impressions of her may be favorable, she's still going to have to present herself as a plausible Commander-in-Chief. Furthermore, her repeated misstatements about her own record--even after her claims had been widely debunked--have left her vulnerable to being exposed as a fraud in the minds of many voters.

This isn't a typical election. Though I'm open to being proved wrong on this point, I think it's a fair assumption that McCain's recent rise in the polls is largely attributable to Palin. And if that's true, his fate is inextricably bound with hers. If her bubble bursts, so does his. That's why we're seeing ads like this one and disingenuous op-eds by Karl Rove "advising" the Obama campaign to ignore Sarah Palin. They won't admit it publicly, but Republicans are very worried about how Palin will hold up under scrutiny. That's why they're trying to waive the Obama campaign away from her.

Their latest ad isn't bait; it's a bluff. They're trying convince the Obama campaign that going after Palin will backfire, that it will only generate sympathy for her and create a further distraction. Sadly, many Democrats and liberals are giving the same advice to the Obama campaign. I think it's bad advice. Palin is low-hanging fruit. Exposing her fraudulent claims and her obvious unreadiness to be president is very much worth the effort. It has the potential to completely neutralize all three of John McCain's chief assets, his perceived experience, his judgment, and his integrity. By comparison, Palin makes Obama look eminently plausible as a Commander-in-Chief. And the fact that McCain would pick someone who he knew almost nothing about to be a 72 year old heartbeat away from the nuclear button is frightening. And finally, to the extent voters can be made to understand how fraudulent many of the claims about Palin are (claims made both by Palin herself and McCain), it will undermine McCain's image as a straight-talker.

So call their bluff. Continue to go after Palin. Ignore her at your own risk.