An Ad That Writes Itself
The Dow just finished down almost 450 points. It's now at 10,609. When George W. Bush took office on January 20, 2001, the Dow was at 10,588. That's a 21 point increase in eight years (by tomorrow we may be in the red). By comparison, when Bill Clinton took office in 1992, the Dow was at 3241, meaning it more than tripled during his presidency.
Those simple numbers make for a devastating ad. I'd imagine it going something like this:
During the Clinton presidency, the stock market more than tripled, growing from a mere 3,241 in 1992 to 10,588 by the time he left office. Now, after eight years of Republican rule, our financial markets are in turmoil and the Dow sits at 10,609. Eight years and we're back where we started. [There should be simple graphs in background during this part of the ad.]
And that's just Wall Street. For those on Main Street, the situation has actually gotten worse. Wages have gone down while the prices of food, gas, health insurance, and college educations have sky-rocketed. And jobs have disappeared.
And while all this was happening, John McCain continued to support President Bush 90% of the time. His economic policies are indistinguishable. [Play McCain saying "the fundamentals of our economy are strong."] It's time for the Republican party to own its failure . . .
Those simple numbers make for a devastating ad. I'd imagine it going something like this:
During the Clinton presidency, the stock market more than tripled, growing from a mere 3,241 in 1992 to 10,588 by the time he left office. Now, after eight years of Republican rule, our financial markets are in turmoil and the Dow sits at 10,609. Eight years and we're back where we started. [There should be simple graphs in background during this part of the ad.]
And that's just Wall Street. For those on Main Street, the situation has actually gotten worse. Wages have gone down while the prices of food, gas, health insurance, and college educations have sky-rocketed. And jobs have disappeared.
And while all this was happening, John McCain continued to support President Bush 90% of the time. His economic policies are indistinguishable. [Play McCain saying "the fundamentals of our economy are strong."] It's time for the Republican party to own its failure . . .
posted by A.L. at 4:24 PM
16 Comments:
George W. Bush took office on January 20, 2001.
You can also add going from a large budget surplus to a huge deficit and mentioning the doubling of the national debt. The closing line might be "Aren't you glad we didn't let them pribatize social security and play roulette with your retirement?"
I meant 2001. I changed it.
Sounds great to me. Let's see if your advice continues mysteriously to coincide with the Obama campaign's next move!
FWIW, as far as I know, the DJI is not inflation-adjusted.
It is a scaled average to handle stock splits and any similar adjustments.
That was "Nick Baumann", not Kevin Drum.
Yes I saw that. Also, Clinton took office in 1993, not 1992 (if you hadn't already changed it by the time I post this).
We can look at it another way:
On January 20, 1993, the Dow was at 3241.95.
On January 3,1995, when the 104th Republican-led Congress took office, the Dow was at 3838.48.
When George W. Bush took office on January 20, 2001, the Dow was at 10,587.59.
When the 110th Democratic-controlled Congress began on January 3, 2007, the Dow was at 12,474.50.
Today, the Dow is at 10,609.66.
When gas and oil prices were at their highest this past July, the price of gas had increased about 70% since the beginning of the 110th Congress; the price of oil had risen nearly 300%...in 18 months.
I agree that the ad writes itself. For McCain and the Republicans.
Some more:
On January 20, 2001, the Dow was at 10587.59.
On June 6, 2001, when Democrats took control of the Senate during the 107th Congress, the Dow as at 11070.24.
On January 3, 2003, when Republicans regained control of both Houses for the 108th Congress, the Dow was at 8601.69.
On January 3, 2005, at the beginning of the Republican-controlled 109th Congress, the Dow was at 10729.43.
And let me rephrase the last bunch:
When the 110th Democratic-controlled Congress began on January 3, 2007, the Dow was at 12,474.50.
Today, the Dow is at 10,609.66.
When gas and oil prices were at their highest this past July, the price of gas had increased about 70% since the beginning of the 110th Congress; the price of oil had risen nearly 300%...in 18 months.
Since Bush lifted the executive ban on drilling on July 14, the price of oil per barrel has dropped 38%. The price of gas is based on future prices, which is why they haven't changed yet.
I agree that the ad writes itself. For McCain and the Republicans.
The DNC ought to do a "Harry & Louise" ad of the couple sitting at their kitchen table reviewing their quarterly 401K statement, noticing that they've just lost 10 years worth of savings on what they thought were "safe" investments. Make the case that the Republicans stood by and allowed this robbery to occur on their watch... and now they're trying to sweep it under the rug with these bailouts and "culture war" distractions.
Actually, there have been three attempts by Republicans, including President Bush in 2003 and John McCain in 2006, to re-align the oversight of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, only to be shot down by...Democrats. Chris Dodd has received the most campaign money from both organizations over the last 20 years (and that includes their high-ranking people); Barack Obama comes in second...in only four years (here's the link).
By the way, two of the people involved in stopping the 2003 attempt by the President to reform the oversight of Freddie and Fannie were Barney Frank and Mel Watt. In the New York Times piece I linked to above, both were in denial that a crisis was pending. Obviously, these two Democrats were quite wrong.
Here's another ad that writes itself. McCain keeps ranting about his intention to bring change to Washington by ending the influence of the "old boys" network there. In his attempt to stop the Troopergate investigation he has in fact taken old boy Washington insiders to Alaska to try to change the way they were doing things. That would make a lovely ad.
excellent. I would finish it by adding a new tagline:
Barack Obama and Joe Biden: New Priorities, New Energy, New Leadership. For the CHANGE We Need.
Yes, trying to blame the Democrats for the Republican criminal incompetence makes a lot of sense - 'a lot' meaning NONE AT ALL.
BTW, one should include the deficit as a backdrop number: Bush squandered the surplus, and ran up a record deficit. The difference between the Clinton surplus and the Bush deficit is something like a TRILLION dollars.
My only "nit" with this ad is that is misses the point that this is primarily a regulatory failure. The culprits are the Bush administration, who hollowed out the regulatory function of the Treasury Dept. by appointing cronies and lobbyists to the regulatory jobs.
The high Dow figure under Bush is meaningless since it was basicaly a pyramid scheme based on subprime lending to people who would not afford to repay their loans. Inevitably, the bubble over-inflated and burst.
There are several parts of the system at fault - one is the regulatory system. Since the Reagan administration, "regulation" has been a dirty word. Maybe no longer. Even McCain is now pushing tougher regulatory laws.
Given that four years ago, Bush and McCain wanted people to give their Social Security money to be managed by these same bankers, this is probably the end of the "Reagan Revolution".
Another source of the rot affecting the system is excessive compensation to executives who are measured solely on the short-term annual and quarterly results. Focus on short-term goals leads to a longer-term decay. This is the Enron scandal in a different industry but multiplied. Enron happened in Bush's first term, but its lessons were not learned because they were not ideologically acceptable.
I lived through the other banking scandal in which my tax money was used to bail out savings and loans, and the Keating Five scandal of McCain, kickbacks from a banker named Keating. You'd never know this, by how much the Bush royalty talks about him, but there is another Bush brother named Neil. He ran a large savings and loan into the ground and took my tax dollars (guess they couldn't get the binLadens to bail him out)and POOF! - disappeared.
So, Democrats wrote and ENFORCED REGULATIONS on the commercial banks, which are at least sounder than investment banks. But Bush told his regulatory agencies to be "customer-friendly" and appointed people who have strong ties to the industry OR incompetent cronies to head the agencies. Bushies have privatized so much of the government in 8 years, it's frightening.
So, Democrats wrote and ENFORCED REGULATIONS on the commercial banks, which are at least sounder than investment banks.
Wrong. Clinton put in regulations that forced banks into providing loans to those who couldn't afford to pay them back. Bush tried to get this changed in 2003, especially in regards to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, but Democrats and squishy Republicans never got it off the ground. Barney Frank and Mel Watt claimed that there wasn't a problem with either Freddie or Fannie. Obviously, they were wrong.
Republicans in the Senate tried to move the regulatory agency of Freddie and Fannie in 2005 out of HUD with S. 190. McCain joined as a co-sponsor in 2006, already recognizing the looming problems. The bill died in committee. Opposition came from those who garnered huge campaign funds from high-ranking executives of Fannie and Freddie. Look at the top two names.
And that isn't even all of it.
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