Palin?

(updated below multiple times)

Several new outlets are reporting that McCain has selected Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as his running mate. If true, it's kind of a weird pick. From a strategic standpoint, I suppose picking her does a couple things for John McCain. First, it's such a left-field pick that the press will be forced to devote a lot of coverage to it. Most people don't know who Palin is, so they can't just announce the pick and go back to talking about Obama's speech. By putting a woman on the ticket, McCain also keeps the Obama/Biden ticket from having sole claim to the "making history" argument. The Republicans will look less like the people standing athwart history yelling stop. And to the extent there are still Hillary voters who are looking for a reason to vote Republican, this may provide some cover.

All that said, Palin has less than two years of experience in office. She's only 44. To the extent the Republican party plans to attack Obama for his lack of experience--and it sure seems like that's their principal attack--Palin clearly undermines that strategy. McCain is 72, and he's picking someone who could, at any moment, become president. Yet Palin is younger and far less experienced than Obama. She has no foreign policy experience at all. She's also totally untested on the national stage.

We'll see how this plays out, but it strikes me as being too clever by half.

UPDATE: Here's a pretty safe prediction. The very same people who absolutely flipped out when Obama was supposedly "playing the race card" are going to "play the gender card" at every opportunity and claim that any criticism of Palin is sexist. It won't take long, and when it happens, I think my head is going to explode.

UPDATE II: I'm not sure that Palin will be able to peel away as many female Democrats as Republicans are hoping, but based on my brief perusal of the right-wing blogosphere, most conservatives seem pretty psyched about the pick. So picking her may help close the enthusiasm gap and motivate Republican voters, especially the religious right, to show up at the polls. In that sense, it may be a smart pick.

UPDATE III: The more I think about this pick, the less sure I am how it will play out. The Democrats are obviously going to have to be careful how they attack her. The right wing blogs are already screaming "sexism" without any provocation (for all their complaining, it's amazing how willing they are to play the victim card when they have the opportunity). And while Palin's extreme lack of experience is obviously a liability, the Democrats have to be careful how they approach it. Obviously the Obama campaign doesn't want this election to be about experience. Palin's inexperience should only be used as a rebuttal point, a way of neutralizing Republican attacks on Obama and highlighting the McCain campaign's obvious hypocrisy on this point. To the extent any affirmative criticism is attempted, it should focus on her "knowledge" not her "experience." The reality is that Palin has never had to think about foreign policy issues. She's a blank slate. Obama, by contrast, is incredibly knowledgeable about foreign policy and has been grappling with these issues publicly for many years now.

The more I think about it, the more I think Palin is a potentially very savvy pick by McCain. Whether she's an asset or a flop, however, is going to depend on how she performs now that the spotlight is on her. Will she make any gaffes? Are there skeletons in her closet? How will she do on Meet the Press and similar venues? Those are the big open questions at this point.

UPDATE IV: On the other hand, I have a feeling this pick many come across as very "gimmicky" to a lot voters. It's not hard to see what McCain is doing here. Even people who haven't been paying much attention to politics know that Hillary Clinton lost a hard fought race and that McCain is trying to woo some of her disgruntled female supporters. Voters may well see this pick as a transparent attempt to appeal to identity politics. After all, can anyone honestly assert that McCain would have considered offering the VP slot to a male governor with the same meagre record? And I think that underscores why this might not go over as well with female voters as the McCain campaign hopes. There are plenty of very experienced female politicians out there to choose from, both Republican and Democrat. But McCain chose the young, inexperienced former beauty pageant contestant. And remember, McCain is a guy who dumped his first wife (who stood by him throughout his captivity) for a much younger (and richer) former beauty pageant contestant. That may not play too well with many women, particularly the ones who feel the more qualified Clinton got passed over for the more inexperienced Obama.

UPDATE V: After talking to people around the office, I'm less convinced that this was a smart choice by McCain. The overwhelming first impression seems to be that this is a transparently political pick, that McCain obviously is choosing someone who he thinks can get him elected, not someone who he thinks will help him govern. It's a cynical, strategic choice, not a responsible, adult one. He chose a trophy running mate, not a partner.