The One-Term Pledge: Obama campaign needs to have a response ready

(updated below)

John McCain's advisers are dropping hints that McCain may use the occasion of his convention speech to make a pledge to serve only one term as president. If he does, it would be a shrewd move politically. The overall dynamics of this race do not favor McCain, and he really does need to start thinking outside the box if he wants to change those dynamics.

Moreover, given how terrible McCain is at delivering speeches, there's a real chance that the headlines the day after his convention speech will all focus on his lackluster performance, particularly in comparison to Obama's performance the week prior. If that's the case, it may well blunt his momentum coming out of the convention.

But if McCain uses his speech to make a one term pledge, that's all anyone will talk about for days. It will trigger an orgy of adulatory press coverage for McCain. The Beltway press corps will absolutely trip over themselves to heap praise on McCain for taking such a bold step and putting the "well-being of his country ahead of his own political ambitions," and Obama will be put on the defensive almost immediately.

So the Obama team really needs to be prepared to deal with this contingency should it arise. They should be ready to hammer home a few key talking points over and over again:

First, and most importantly, they should point out that--by taking that pledge--McCain renders himself a lame duck before his presidency even starts. When you're not running for re-election, your influence is greatly diminished. Just look at all the amazing accomplishments of George W. Bush's second term. He's now totally irrelevant and has to slap beach volleyball players in the butt to even make the news. As McCain himself said in January when asked about making such a pledge, when you do so "then you’re the lame duck, you’re quacking on Inauguration Day."

Second, the Obama camp should point out that it is completely unrealistic to think that you can accomplish all of the reforms this country needs in just one term. Only someone who plans on pursuing the status quo would make such a pledge.

And finally, I would point out what a gimmick and a sign of desperation the pledge is. McCain himself has previously ruled out making such a pledge. What changed? Obviously, he realized that he needed to do something dramatic and attention grabbing to have any shot at winning. This is a move driven by ambition, not selfless love of country.

I'm not sure how effective any of those talking points would be, but whatever they end up doing, I just hope the Obama camp isn't caught flat-footed.

UPDATE: Isaac Chotiner at The New Republic questions my assumption that making a one-term pledge would be a shrewd political move by McCain. He writes:

Ramesh Ponnuru has argued this case before, and maybe, as the Anonymous Liberal predicts, the press will focus on McCain's selflessness were he to take the pledge. But it still does not follow that anyone will vote for the guy because he only plans to serve one term. Ponnuru also thinks that the pledge would help McCain's maverick, above-politics image, and I would agree...if McCain were fifty years old. But he is in his seventies. Making this pledge will just lead to a whole slew of stories about his age, which may cause people to think twice about giving him even a single term. That speculation is probably unfair, however: It is hard to imagine that the move would shift any votes one way or another.

Perhaps, but I stand by my original assumption. Everyone already knows that McCain is old. If anything, I think a one-term pledge would reassure those voters who find his age concerning that he's not going to hang around until he's 80 and possibly senile (like Reagan increasingly was toward the end of his presidency). And, of course, if McCain takes the pledge, he and his surrogates are going to frame it much differently. They're going to argue (in every television ad and interview) that McCain is taking the pledge so that he can focus exclusively on solving our nation's problems and not get bogged down in "politics as usual." That will be a powerful message and it will absolutely captivate the press corps. McCain's supporters will make the case that his campaign is every bit as historic as Obama's and they'll try to co-opt Obama's message of rising above "the politics of old." Again, if Obama responds quickly and effectively, I think he can minimize the political benefit to McCain of making such a pledge, but I still think it would be a smart move by McCain.