More Baseless VP Speculation
There really isn't anything much more inane that the flurry of totally baseless chatter and speculation that precedes the candidates' official announcement of their running mates, but I confess that the process manages to suck me in like a bad movie and I find it hard to focus on other topics.
So here's my marginal contribution to the chatter. The other day I predicted (more out of hope than actual belief) that Obama would prove all the prognosticators wrong and choose someone who had supposedly been removed from consideration as his running mate. Specifically, I predicted he would choose Virginia Senator Jim Webb, whose name, I noted, was (and still is) conspicuously absent from the list of speakers slated to take the stage at the convention next week. At the time I noted that several other big names--specifically John Kerry, Al Gore, and Wesley Clark--were also absent from the list. Well, since I wrote that, John Kerry and Al Gore have been given speaking spots and it has been reported that Wesley Clark will not be at the convention. Furthermore, all of the names being bandied about by the press (Biden, Kaine, Sebelius, Bayh) have been given speaking spots. But there's still no word about Webb.
What we do know, however, is that Obama plans to take the stage tonight with Jim Webb at a town hall in Lynchburg, Virginia. And according to ABC News, they're slated to take the stage at 6:35 pm, just in time for the network news broadcasts. Could it be that Obama plans to use the occasion to make his first appearance with his running mate?
Probably not. But if we get a text message this afternoon announcing Webb as the VP, I expect an immediate promotion to the ranks of Very Serious TV Pundit because, as far as I can tell, I'm the only person to even suggest this possibility.
UPDATE: This would seem to weigh against my brilliant speculation. If Obama's staying at the Kaine house tonight, it could be pretty awkward if he's already chosen someone else.
UPDATE II: Well, the afternoon has come and gone without an announcement, so it's probably safe to conclude I was wrong (shocking, I know). Though I suppose it's still possible (albeit unlikely) that Obama used today's town hall as cover to have a final in-person conversation with Webb about the VP spot. Keep hope alive!
So here's my marginal contribution to the chatter. The other day I predicted (more out of hope than actual belief) that Obama would prove all the prognosticators wrong and choose someone who had supposedly been removed from consideration as his running mate. Specifically, I predicted he would choose Virginia Senator Jim Webb, whose name, I noted, was (and still is) conspicuously absent from the list of speakers slated to take the stage at the convention next week. At the time I noted that several other big names--specifically John Kerry, Al Gore, and Wesley Clark--were also absent from the list. Well, since I wrote that, John Kerry and Al Gore have been given speaking spots and it has been reported that Wesley Clark will not be at the convention. Furthermore, all of the names being bandied about by the press (Biden, Kaine, Sebelius, Bayh) have been given speaking spots. But there's still no word about Webb.
What we do know, however, is that Obama plans to take the stage tonight with Jim Webb at a town hall in Lynchburg, Virginia. And according to ABC News, they're slated to take the stage at 6:35 pm, just in time for the network news broadcasts. Could it be that Obama plans to use the occasion to make his first appearance with his running mate?
Probably not. But if we get a text message this afternoon announcing Webb as the VP, I expect an immediate promotion to the ranks of Very Serious TV Pundit because, as far as I can tell, I'm the only person to even suggest this possibility.
UPDATE: This would seem to weigh against my brilliant speculation. If Obama's staying at the Kaine house tonight, it could be pretty awkward if he's already chosen someone else.
UPDATE II: Well, the afternoon has come and gone without an announcement, so it's probably safe to conclude I was wrong (shocking, I know). Though I suppose it's still possible (albeit unlikely) that Obama used today's town hall as cover to have a final in-person conversation with Webb about the VP spot. Keep hope alive!
posted by A.L. at 9:05 AM
9 Comments:
AL, I'm sucked into this too. Even though I mocked you previously on the Webb prediction a few days ago, at this point I'm praying you're right because of the obvious alternative: Kaine. Kaine would be akin, though obviously not quite as bad as, a Quayle/Agnew type selection. He brings nothing to the ticket and would only highlight the ticket's lack of experience.
A.L.,
How can a guy as smart as you seem to be believe that getting predictions correct qualifies you for Very Serious Punditry?
You're right, David. My chances of promotion are probably better if I'm completely wrong. It's worked well for Bill Kristol.
Speaking slots aren't evidence of anything. It isn't hard to move slots around if somebody is picked for vp who wasn't scheduled to speak on the vp's day.
Ron,
I agree that speaking slots aren't much evidence of anything. The only reason I keep coming back to it is because I find it inconceivable that Webb wouldn't be given a speaking spot. He's easily the Democrats most effective spokesman on military and veterans issues.
Adding to the baseless speculation... There is a major campaign event scheduled Saturday in Indianapolis (which is the first day Obama is to campaign with the Veep selectee): http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/08/indianapolis_event_on_saturday.php
So, I think we're back to Bayh.
While I'm a pessimist by nature and therefore think that my preferred choice, Webb, will NOT be the VP nominee, I must admit that your speculation has given me the hope that perhaps for once I will be surprised. I would be ecstatic if Webb was the VP nominee.
I've wanted Caroline Kennedy all along, even before she was tapped to vet veeps for Obama. Still do. It's practically perfect in every way including completely shutting down any remaining sense that the name "Clinton" is more entitled to anything than "Kennedy" -- and talk about a surprise for once!
OTOH I just saw a headline stripped across a cable news channel that Michael Moore is calling for the same thing today, so I may be forced to change my mind now . . .
What if he selects someone like Deval Patrick?
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