For Once, Surprise Us
According to the New York Times, Barack Obama plans to announce his VP choice sometime between Wednesday and Friday and it's likely to be one of the three people that everyone has been talking about for the past three weeks: Joe Biden, Evan Bayh, or Tim Kaine. I have absolutely no reason to doubt the accuracy of this report. That said, I'm still holding out hope that the Times is completely wrong, that my blackberry will light up tomorrow morning with an email informing me that Obama has chosen someone whom none of the pundits have been talking about.
If I were running for president, that's what I'd do. I'd lead the press astray by floating a series of names I never intended to pick. Meanwhile, I'd keep the name of my true pick tightly under wraps or, better yet, have that person wave the press off their trail early in the process by appearing to remove their name from consideration (like, say, a certain Senator from Virginia).
I realize that doing this would require a lot of discipline and planning, but the payoff would potentially be significant. First, the surprise factor would generate much more excitement, both among the public and (importantly) among the press corps. Shocked that they could have been so fooled, the press would scramble to cover both the pick itself and the back story, thereby extending coverage by at least another news cycle or two. And reporters wouldn't be the only ones scrambling. The opposing campaign would also be caught off guard, having done all their opposition research and prepared all their talking points for the wrong people.
Yet year after year we go through the same drill. The names of the people on the short list are leaked one by one and by the time the announcement is made, we know it's going to be one of two or three people. Just once I'd like to see a campaign fool everyone. And given that I'm not particularly enamored with any of the people supposedly on Obama's short list, I'd love this to be the year.
UPDATE: For what it's worth, I think I'm with just about everyone else in saying that, of the three names currently being floated, I'd prefer Biden.
If I were running for president, that's what I'd do. I'd lead the press astray by floating a series of names I never intended to pick. Meanwhile, I'd keep the name of my true pick tightly under wraps or, better yet, have that person wave the press off their trail early in the process by appearing to remove their name from consideration (like, say, a certain Senator from Virginia).
I realize that doing this would require a lot of discipline and planning, but the payoff would potentially be significant. First, the surprise factor would generate much more excitement, both among the public and (importantly) among the press corps. Shocked that they could have been so fooled, the press would scramble to cover both the pick itself and the back story, thereby extending coverage by at least another news cycle or two. And reporters wouldn't be the only ones scrambling. The opposing campaign would also be caught off guard, having done all their opposition research and prepared all their talking points for the wrong people.
Yet year after year we go through the same drill. The names of the people on the short list are leaked one by one and by the time the announcement is made, we know it's going to be one of two or three people. Just once I'd like to see a campaign fool everyone. And given that I'm not particularly enamored with any of the people supposedly on Obama's short list, I'd love this to be the year.
UPDATE: For what it's worth, I think I'm with just about everyone else in saying that, of the three names currently being floated, I'd prefer Biden.
posted by A.L. at 9:17 PM
11 Comments:
Maybe Obama will announce that he has engineered a female clone of Bayh and Kaine, thereby creating a boring white Catholic woman from two swing states. The perfect running mate!
Yeah, surprise picks create a lot of excitement and press coverage. Like Dan Quayle for instance...
Briefman, fair enough. But I think the moral of the Dan Quayle story may be: if you're going to surprise people with your pick, make sure you don't pick Dan Quayle.
"Meanwhile, I'd keep the name of my true pick tightly under wraps or, better yet, have that person wave the press off their trail early in the process by appearing to remove their name from consideration (like, say, a certain Senator from Virginia)."
Personally, I hope its Wesly Clark. I just don't get it why he wouldn't be a great VP pick
I'm kinda coming around to Biden as well--despite being a big Bayh fan. The problems with Biden (aside from his well-noted tendency to put his foot in his mouth) are that he steps on the change theme since he's been around even longer than McCain, he steps on the youth v. age theme, he doesn't bring a red state and he's viewed as a partisan and therefore steps on Obama's post-partisan theme (although, unfortunately, Obama seems to have abandoned that anyway).
The problem with a surprise pick that fools the press is that the press is a bunch of juveniles who never got over high school. They are likely to become angry over the deception and take it out on the campaign in their reporting from that point on.
Isn't it ridiculous the amount of time everybody spends thinking and talking about vp picks? I'm with Yglesias: get rid of the position already and let the Secretary of State be next in line.
It's once every four years. Biden makes me want to puke. Have a nice day.
Shocked that they could have been so fooled, the press would scramble to cover both the pick itself and the back story, thereby extending coverage by at least another news cycle or two.
I think you're dreaming. The press has been fooled, deceived, and lied to for the past 7 1/2 years, and with very few exceptions I haven't seen that they've cared or even noticed. They just keep lining up for more.
The emasculation of the nation's press during Bush's time in office is almost as disgusting as Bush himself.
And I still don't understand your ensorcellment with Senator Webb.
I also used to want Clark but I realized that I fell in love with his biography and character rather than his political abilities. He is too perfect in every way accept he is a terrible politician. That just won't work these days.
I think Biden is a terrible idea. The man is a partisan talker and everything about him screams "Washington insider". If Obama is going to go the experience route with his VP pick can he pick someone with some actual executive experience? Biden sits on committees; he is partisan, not a leader. He is good in the legislature but not on a ticket. There is a reason this guy loses in the primaries over and over even though democrats tend to agree with him: He just isn't very good. He is as much a part of the "old politics" that Obama claims to reject as anyone on the VP list, other than perhaps Hillary.
McCain would rip him apart on Iraq; Biden's plan was to cut the country in three. This guy is the democrats foreign policy heavyweight? The fact that he is from Delaware doesn't help either.
I suppose from the current big three I would prefer Bayh first and Kaine second. I think either could tip a big red state to Obama or at least really put the screws to McCain. They are both "new" which fits with Obama's appeal. Bayh is both an outsider and a person with executive experience, which makes him a strong choice. Kaine has less experience but I wouldn't mind him much.
A downside to Bayh would be losing a blue seat from a red state but now would be a strong time for another democrat to hold this seat, while the electorate is favorable. By the time the next election comes up, the democrat will have the incumbents advantages.
Biden just said "I'm not the guy" but the moron talking heads at MSNBC keep saying it's probably Biden, completely ignoring what Biden just said! It's like they can't help but just robotically ignore any evidence contrary to the conventional wisdom of their cohort.
Anonymous (at 6:01), losing a senate seat if Bayh is the VP is likely but not a given. I think Daniels is in a close race and Bayh's coattails may help the Dem in the governor's race. Otherwise, I agree on everything that you said about Bayh.
I'm a big Tim Kaine fan but he would be a terrible choice and he wouldn't help an iota in Virginia (and I'm a Virginia Dem saying this).
clark
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