Diluting the Brand
I've been thinking all day about McCain's surprising (shocking really) selection of Sarah Palin as his running mate, and the more I think about it, the more absurd it seems to me. There's no question that, relative to John McCain and some prior notable presidential candidates, Barack Obama isn't all that experienced.
That said, he's been a member of the U.S. Senate for the last four years, and during that time, he's had to grapple seriously with every issue, domestic and foreign, that he'll have to deal with if he's elected president. He's traveled the world and met with most major foreign leaders. And by all accounts, he's a very intelligent and curious person who has a deep understanding of policy issues. Indeed, he has significantly more experience dealing with national and foreign policy issues than several recent presidents did when they took office (Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, and George W. Bush).
But Palin's level of experience is not even in the same ballpark. She became the governor of the 3rd smallest state in the union after John McCain launched his current campaign for president. And prior to that she was the mayor of a town of 9000 people (and according to this TNR writer, seemed to be in over her head even then). Furthermore, there's no evidence whatsoever that Palin has ever given much thought to any national, much less foreign policy issues. She has no record of scholarship and no record of having voiced opinions on major issues.
That makes her, by a country mile, the least qualified person to ever find her way on to a national ticket, a reality that McCain's age and health history makes all the more significant.
And it would one thing if she was someone that McCain knew well and could vouch for. But it was reported today that McCain only met Palin once--and briefly at that--before choosing her to be his running mate. Yet he's willing to put her one heartbeat away from being the leader of the free world?
That's really hard to take seriously. In fact, it can't be taken seriously. It's a transparently political move, a gimmick. And it's reckless as all hell. Maybe Sarah Palin would be a brilliant leader, but McCain certainly doesn't know that. He doesn't know her at all. What does that say about his judgment? It says he's willing to take a major gamble on behalf of the country, and that's scary. That's not a quality I want in a president.
As far as the politics of it go, I'm not sure I've ever seen such a disconnect between the what conservatives think and what everyone else seems to think. Virtually every conservative blogger is thrilled by this pick and thinks that Palin will help McCain politically. But most other people I've heard from or talked to think McCain made a huge mistake. Because this is such a bizarre political move, I honestly don't know what to make of it. My gut tells me, though, that this won't play well over the long run. I think McCain may have jumped the shark on this one and fatally diluted his brand. This pick simultaneously calls into question McCain's judgment, underscores his age, and makes him look unserious. It also makes Obama look far more experienced and serious by comparison.
I hope I'm right.
That said, he's been a member of the U.S. Senate for the last four years, and during that time, he's had to grapple seriously with every issue, domestic and foreign, that he'll have to deal with if he's elected president. He's traveled the world and met with most major foreign leaders. And by all accounts, he's a very intelligent and curious person who has a deep understanding of policy issues. Indeed, he has significantly more experience dealing with national and foreign policy issues than several recent presidents did when they took office (Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, and George W. Bush).
But Palin's level of experience is not even in the same ballpark. She became the governor of the 3rd smallest state in the union after John McCain launched his current campaign for president. And prior to that she was the mayor of a town of 9000 people (and according to this TNR writer, seemed to be in over her head even then). Furthermore, there's no evidence whatsoever that Palin has ever given much thought to any national, much less foreign policy issues. She has no record of scholarship and no record of having voiced opinions on major issues.
That makes her, by a country mile, the least qualified person to ever find her way on to a national ticket, a reality that McCain's age and health history makes all the more significant.
And it would one thing if she was someone that McCain knew well and could vouch for. But it was reported today that McCain only met Palin once--and briefly at that--before choosing her to be his running mate. Yet he's willing to put her one heartbeat away from being the leader of the free world?
That's really hard to take seriously. In fact, it can't be taken seriously. It's a transparently political move, a gimmick. And it's reckless as all hell. Maybe Sarah Palin would be a brilliant leader, but McCain certainly doesn't know that. He doesn't know her at all. What does that say about his judgment? It says he's willing to take a major gamble on behalf of the country, and that's scary. That's not a quality I want in a president.
As far as the politics of it go, I'm not sure I've ever seen such a disconnect between the what conservatives think and what everyone else seems to think. Virtually every conservative blogger is thrilled by this pick and thinks that Palin will help McCain politically. But most other people I've heard from or talked to think McCain made a huge mistake. Because this is such a bizarre political move, I honestly don't know what to make of it. My gut tells me, though, that this won't play well over the long run. I think McCain may have jumped the shark on this one and fatally diluted his brand. This pick simultaneously calls into question McCain's judgment, underscores his age, and makes him look unserious. It also makes Obama look far more experienced and serious by comparison.
I hope I'm right.
posted by A.L. at 9:27 PM
43 Comments:
I had the exact same reaction as you. But knowing the GOP like I do, I can't help but think they have some deviousness up their sleeve. Either they have started to believe their own press and actually think that people are as stupid and small-minded as they are used to treating them or there's more to this pick than meets the eye.
I have to thank John McCain for finally converting my Republican father to the Democratic ticket. He will not vote for a person with NO foreign policy experience. She frightens him much more than Obama ever did. By the way, he lives in Florida and says many other of his neighbors in the retirement community are similarly confused, angry and lookin' to change their vote. Hooray!
If it's a cynical attempt to get the female vote—as I suspect— it will almost certainly fail. Palin is far-right, against abortion even for rape and incest. Her presence on the ticket prevents McCain from playing the experience card. A disastrous mistake by the Republicans.
Reminds me of Bush picking Harriet Miers for the Supreme Court. Hopefully with the same degree of public acceptance.
Not only has he only met her once, but he just decided on her THURSDAY NIGHT. It seems he had selected Pawlenty and then told him Friday morning that he was going a different direction.
Bizarre.
Everybody's talking about Palin's lack of foreign policy experience, and that's important. But to a certain degree, there is an establishment that can help with that (Pentagon, State Dept.), which provides a sort of base of opinion, and therefore some reassurance.
But remember, this election could determine up to 3 Supreme Court seats. A Supreme Court choice is much more the personal purview of the president. "Who would Sarah Palin put on the Supreme Court?" is a question that really gets you thinking.
Picking Palin I believe was a serious mistake. McCain is 72. He needs to put the country's mind to rest that his replacement is competent. Palen is a neophyte. Does that show depth of thought on McCain's part? McCain was making an attempt to get women's votes but surely there is a more experienced Republican female than this? McCain already seems to have problems with temperment and depth of knowledge on some foreign policy issues. In the back of my mind I wonder if he is losing his edge because of age. I do not say this derogatorily just an impression from seeing him respond to some questions on Iraq that Lieberman had to bail him out on.
My best guess is, the McCain camp believes that win against Obama (let alone a BIG win) will be nearly impossible. The only victory for McCain will be a narrow one, and the likely strategy involves:
1. Shoring up the Bush Christian-evangelical base, who are not wild about McCain;
2. Peeling away as many disgruntled Clinton supporters as possible;
3. Running a highly negative campaign to a) limit Obama's ability to build a large base of new voters; and b) disgust as many other voters as possible into staying home on election day.
To me, the Palin pick seems to be consistent with McCain adopting the Rovian "narrow victory" approach. For McCain, this is a shrewd, rational move. He cannot possibly match Obama's broad appeal, so the best strategy is to tap into the most reliable right-wing constituencies, while undermining Obama's strengths.
THe base will win this election for us, just like they did in 2000 and 2004.
As I said everyone in the WRWC loves her--pro lifers, evangelicals, Mel Gibson-type Catholics, home schoolers, pro-gun NRA members, libertarians, fiscal cons, social cons, EVERYONE.
The right wing is fired up and ready to go now!
And yes she is ready to be Commander-in-Chief, and you wouldn't even ask that if she was Sam Palin.
BTW according to Rasmussen, Palin is viewed more favorably the Joey Hairplugs Biden.
I'm looking forward to that debate. Beauty Queen vs. a cranky inside-the-beltway jerk.
"THe base will win this election for us, just like they did in 2000 and 2004."
The "base" is not a sufficient condition McCain to win, but it is indisputably a necessary one. McCain's choice of VP shows that McCain understands this fact.
Question one, will adding Palin to the ticket be enough for the Bush base to support McCain with similar enthusiasm? Question two, will McCain be able to tarnish the Obama brand enough to drive away enough voters for McCain to win the general election? We'll see.
"I'm looking forward to that debate. Beauty Queen vs. a cranky inside-the-beltway jerk."
Umm...
Palin will be debating Joe Biden, not John McCain...
;)
AL-Of your many reactions to this choice, I am most in agreement with yesterday’s Update 3. That is, this is a high-risk, high-reward choice that will depend largely on how Palin performs on the national stage in the next two months.
The immediate reaction to the pick highlighted the reward aspect, adding a lot of excitement to an otherwise lackluster Republican Convention. A day later, the reaction is highlighting the risk aspect, with emphasis being placed on whether Palin has enough experience to be a heartbeat away from the presidency.
I think both sides would be well-advised to be a little careful here. Obama recognized this yesterday when he in effect withdrew his spokesman’s slam of Palin as, and I paraphrase, a small-town hick who thinks she can waltz, Reese Witherspoon style, from beauty pageant winner to Vice President.
On paper, Palin’s experience and qualifications to be President are comparable to Obama’s. Sure, people can quibble about the fact that he has been in the Senate a couple of years longer than she has been Governor, or that she has executive experience and he does not. But we all know that these arguments are basically bs. The truth is that the main “experience gap” between Obama and Palin has to do with our experience with them. Obama has been on the national stage long enough that most people have had an opportunity to form an impression of him; this is not true of Palin.
I would observe that there is also some stereotyping going on here. When Tim Kaine and Tim Pawlenty were being discussed as potential VPs, no one seemed to be nearly as concerned about their lack of experience (or the fact that hardly anyone has heard of them). In the absence of any other information, people assumed that these were your standard up-and-coming capable young Democratic/Republican politicians, who would someday grow up to be your standard well-established boring Democratic/Republican elder statesmen. The same assumptions do not seem to pertain to Palin.
On the other hand, Republicans should be careful not to give the impression they expect women to vote for Palin just because of her gender. Instead, they should simply acknowledge that Palin was chosen, in part, because she is the best person to deliver McCain’s message to undecided or persuadable women, just as Biden is expected to deliver Obama’s message to working-class white voters.
Finally, I think this selection does signal a change in tactics (not in strategy) by the McCain campaign. Rather than focusing on Obama’s lack of experience, McCain is going to stress the fact that he and Palin have records as reformers who take on entrenched interests in their own party, as opposed to Obama and Biden, who have no such record. Nobody seriously thinks that Obama and Biden are going to fight the Democratic Congress on anything (farm subsidies, earmarks, trade, tort reform, educational reform, etc.) that will upset Democratic interest groups.
Palin's experience is comparable to Obama's? What a joke.
Leaving that aside, what I'd like to ask conservatives is what makes Palin more qualified or better than Huckabee or Pawlenty.
MLS? Virginia?
Palin is Phyllis Schafly in disguise. Women - do you really want to shut up and serve your master? Is your goal to remain barefoot and pregnant? Do you want your daughters to bear and raise the children of their rapists or fathers? Do you really want your daughters and sons to learn Creationism science - which is the destruction of modern science needed to create the innovators and entrepreneurs for the future and the end of oil domination by countries hostile to your freedom? If so, forget the fact that Presidents have to speak face-to-face with other world leaders. How dangerous is it for hostile world leaders to think that our leaders don't know anything about the world? This move was a joke and totally incomprehensible. Palin is under investigation for abuse of power. She didn't like her sister's husband. So she tried to use her power to get him fired. Abuse of power? MORE of the SAME Rove politics. ANYTHING to maintain power to assuage greed- NOTHING for ordinary people and CERTAINLY NOT equal wages for equal work for your daughters.
What makes Obama more qualified than Dodd, Richardson, Biden, or Clinton to be at the top of the ticket?
Virginia,
Responding to a straightforward question with a question isn't very honest, but, since you asked...
For me, what makes Obama more qualified is his opposition to the Idiocy in Iraq, for one thing. His thoughtfulness, his ability to express himself, his background as a community organizer, and his distance from the DLC.
Face it, he's a stand-out in that crowd. I liked Dodd too (and better on FISA), but I'm satisfied with the result of the primaries. Obama will make a good president, and Biden will be a very good vice president -- he won't pull a Cheney, and getting him out of the productive flow of legislation can only help banking legislation (/snark).
I'm still waiting for an answer to my question. Frankly, I still like Huckabee. He's the most honest and direct of the crowd on the right, not that that's significant praise.
"""What makes Obama more qualified than Dodd, Richardson, Biden, or Clinton to be at the top of the ticket?""""
What a silly question. He won a primary ( that is his qualification)..he was not chosen. Obama is running as Obama. In that light experience equals same ole' same ole', but you profess to be a conservative so I don't expect you to get it. I think your wishful thinking may get a big disappointment.
I couldn't agree with you more, A.L. And have written about it at The Limb. My favorite reaction so far is from Gail Collins at the NYT:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/30/opinion/30collins-.html?_r=1&ref=opinion&oref=slogin
It is just such fun to read the indignation of the right wing that we would question Gov. Palin's outstanding experience. One commenter on my site spent 400 words outlining Palin's "valuable executive and military experience "!
It's hilarious.
And I think in the long run Palin helps us. I too hope we are right.
After listening to Palin LIE 2 times on national TV, I went to find the truth about the Bridge to Nowhere.Here it is:QUESTION from reporter:
Would you continue state funding for the proposed Knik Arm and Gravina Island bridges?
Yes. I would like to see Alaska’s infrastructure projects built sooner rather than later. The window is now--while our congressional delegation is in a strong position to assist.
So she was very much for the bridge and seemed to be saying that Alaska had to act quickly -- Ted Stevens and Don Young might not be in the majority much longer to secure pork for the state. By that point, though, the bridge was endangered for reasons that had nothing to do with Palin -- it had become a national laughingstock, Congress had stripped away the offending earmark, and future federal funding seemed unlikely. Now, true, after Palin was sworn into office that fall, her first state budget didn't contain any money for the bridge. But when the Daily News asked on December 16, 2006, if she now opposed the project, Palin demurred and said she was simply trying to figure out where the project fit on the state's list of priorities, given the lack of federal support. Finally, on September 19, 2007, she redirected funds away from the bridge with this sorry-sounding statement:Only the governor of moron-land would support building a vastly expensive bridge to a barely-populated island if her state had to actually front the funds -- killing the bridge once federal funds are gone is a foregone conclusion.
The choice of Palin can be explained in one word: desperation. And I love the right wing mental contortions to justify the selection ... like the guy on Fox saying she has foreign policy experience because Alaska is near Russia. But it's what the choice says about McCain that is really illuminating.
It shows that he all about personal ambition, not about making good choices for our country. It shows that the ends-justify-the-means mentality is alive and well in the Republican Party. It shows that cynicism still dominates the right wing's M.O. It shows McCain is capable of extraordinary lapses of judgment (can anyone in his right mind imagine McCain with his finger on the nuclear trigger?). It shows that McCain would be worse than Bush in making cabinet, agency, and Supreme Court decisions. He was clearly swayed by his Rovian advisors on this choice as well as his ads ... indicating he's just an older, more intemperate, less predictable version of Bush.
Or maybe Vicky Iseman is hiding in Alaska and he wants an excuse to go there from time to time :)
You guys need to wake up. They were raving about Palin on Meet The Press. The media and base loves her. One of the best picks ever.
I asked my question on another blog, and got the reply (boiled down a bit) that Palin is a "reform candidate in the Gingrich conservative mold who will electrify the base and attract independents."
Given her almost nonexistent name recognition, and the paucity with which her record is understood, I think this translates to: "we hope there won't be enough time left for her negatives to be developed. Meanwhile, the right wing can project upon her blank (but attractive) image whatever they imagine."
It would have electrified the base of the Democrats if Obama would have chosen Al Gore or Hillary Clinton. Equally, it would have driven away some independents. By selecting a complete unknown, McCain thinks he has "cleverly" avoided this.
Let the vetting proceed. Even the tepid investigation performed on GOP candidates is likely to turn up some negative surprises.
Virginia, this must mean you can answer the question now, since you've heard Tim Pawlenty.
Palin is the best qualified candidate in terms of winning this election for John McCain.
Pawlenty would have been boring and yawn inducing. Palin electrified that country over the weekend.
Virginia,
So Palin is more compelling than Pawlenty because ... she's more compelling? Well, that sure leaves no loose ends.
A sudden jolt of electricity can sure be exciting, but, once it's gone, the frayed wires still need to be fixed, and you start to notice the side effects.
She is more compelling because she is charismatic, a hockey mom, has a great personal story, and will connect with female Reagan Democrats in a way Pawlenty wouldn't.
She's a female Mike Huckabee.
Virginia,
"She's a female Mike Huckabee."
May I point out that Mike was a two-term governor, then ran a campaign which introduced him rather thoroughly to the American public, has appeared on nationally-broadcast television many times, while you know squat about Governor Palin?
Yes, Pawlenty has the charisma of a sugar beet. But his record as a budget squeezer goes back to his days in the legislature. He's been campaigning with McCain for months.
You do know we're talking about the vice presidency here?
"You do know we're talking about the vice presidency here?"
Yes....and?
Obama had Tim Kaine on his final list who has been a Governor about as long as Palin, and was a Mayor before that. Not much different.
Virginia,
Tim Kaine is the governor of Virginia, with more than ten times as many people, has spoken on nationally-broadcast media, is well known nationally.
And Obama didn't pick him. You are aware of that, right?
Please stop, you are just embarrassing yourself here. It's clear you have no idea what is so compelling about Sarah Palin, you have no real clue even as to who she really is or what she really stands for. You prove A.L.'s point completely. This was a naked, opportunistic gamble on the part of John McCain. While it may be applauded by the right-wing base, I suspect that very few others will come to find it compelling.
"It's clear you have no idea what is so compelling about Sarah Palin"
Yes I do. She is a working class hockey mom with a great personal story and photogenic family that will appeal to working class suburban women in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Colorado, and New Hampshire. The pipe dream of Obama winning Montana or North Dakota is even more so now.
"you have no real clue even as to who she really is or what she really stands for"
She took on the good old boy GOP network in Alaska and challenged the famous corruption of her party up there. She stands for reform and ethics in government, just like John McCain. You want change? We have it in spades, now.
I'm waiting to see when the media finds out about her appointment to replace Walt Mongehan (DPS Director). Her pick was a known violator of every sexual harassment/discrimination law on federal or state books, and a known adulterer; it was not a secret in his community. Don't you think an appointment to be the state's "top-cop" would require a bit of vetting before you make that appoinment ?
Ah, yes. "She's less corrupt than the rest of the GOP in Alaska!"
A "working class hockey mom with a great personal story and photogenic family" Just the credentials we need for someone to take over in case McCain, age 72, cancer survivor, isn't able to perform the job.
My money is down on a massive surge of buyer's remorse in a week or so.
Well she sure stopped Obama's convention "bounce" it its tracks. Your boy still can't reach 50% despite four days of non stop Democrat propaganda. Pathetic.
Palin is more qualified than Obama. She has executive experience--you know, preparing a budget and being the chief administrator of a government.
As Rush said, Palin=babies, guns, and Jesus in the minds of many swing voters.
Nobama!
OK, so we've definitely settled that, for the next few days, the idiots among us will be enthralled by the lady from Alaska. Babies, guns, and Jesus, indeed. Sounds like a volatile mix to me.
Unfortunately, for the right, I really don't think swing voters are as stupid as they think.
I'm going to have to take a break and listen to some Mozart and try to repair the damage to my IQ just reading VC's crap has caused.
Keep it up with the "vote for us, you fat stupid hicks!" strategy. It worked so well in 2004 for your side, c2h50h.
I can't resist.
Virginia -- I didn't call you fat or a hick.
If you base your vote on whether someone calls you stupid, then I suggest that you have proven their point.
c2h50h-
Since the Palin pick is going over so well with the public at large, the next meme to come from liberals will be that "Well, the American people are STUPID! HICKS! REDNECKS!"
That's what happened in 2004 when you finally realized people thought John Kerry was a tool. The post mortem wasn't that the Democrat Party was too far left or had a bad candidate. No, sir. It was because they American people were STUPID!
As Ronald Reagan said, the problem with liberals isn't that they're ignorant. Its that they know so much that just a'int so.
VC,
I think you're deluding yourself about how well the Palin pick is going over. Yes, the press coverage so far has been pretty good, but it's also pretty clear that most members of the media think that she's Dan Quayle. They're hesitant to say that--largely because she's a woman--but that's what they hinting at. And that's what a lot of conservatives think too (see, e.g., Krauthammer, Brookhiser, Ponnuru, etc.).
And I just got back from spending some time with my conservative relatives. I was shocked how poorly the pick went over with them. They were solidly in the McCain camp but now they're not so sure. They think this pick was crazy.
You're right that the pick seems to have gone over well with the activist base. But there are a lot of other Republican voters out there. Many of them are security voters, and based on my anecdotal evidence, they don't understand this pick at all.
This pick is brilliant. It's probably the smartest thing the McCain campaign has done in a year. Here's why:
1. She's sure to pick off a few of the disgruntled Hillary supporters. Some feminists just want to see a woman in office, no matter what.
2. She may not have government and foreign policy experience, but she has more experience LEADING then any of the other three. Prior to being a governor and a mayor, she was a CEO. Far more relevant experience then being a senator.
3. She's a Washington outsider. Both campaigns argue that they are willing to take on Washington and go against the "insiders"...except that both McCain and Obama, and for that case Biden, are all "insiders". Palin doesn't work in Washington.
4. Alaska may be a small state, but they LOVE her. Eight percent approval rating.
I could go on and on and on, but bottomline, this is an amazing decision for the McCain camp.
I live in San Francisco so there are not many conservatives around here. I do know one though, who attends a church in which the congregation was not planning to support McCain as he is far too moderate for their tastes. I believe the congregants were plannig to support the Constitution Party - hoping to install a theocracy in the U.S for those unfamiliar with their agenda - but now my conservative acquaintance infomrs me, they are fired up regarding Palin.
While one could argue that the Republicans are not very good at governing, they certainly are good at winning elections. I suspect that the Republicans posting here are correct in arguing that Palin was the best available choice as far as winning the election is concerned. This will depend upon how she does the next couple of months, of course, but they are quite good at teaching candidates even those with limited intelligence and education to stick to a few easily memorized talking points and to simply not deviate.
Unless McCain or Palin makes a bad blunder during the campaign or the Dems dig up something to reveal a significant blemish on one or the other, look for a close race and a likely McCain victory.
Wait until they ask Palin how old the planet Earth is... about 5000 years, give or take?
Did humans live side by side with dinosaurs... Yes.
I have heard in many places that she's a freaking Creationist. Haven't heard this contradicted or mitigated yet. If it's true, then let's see how well THAT goes over with undecided independents. Let's see how they like the thought of a militant science-hater one tick away from the throne.
She doesn't believe global warming is caused by human agency. Again, have not heard this contradicted. If true, there's another Winner. Let's see how the swing voters like THAT.
Judgment. Does the candidate have the judgment to pick a good VP? Obama recognized that Joe Biden would be a source of wisdom on foreign policy. That's sound judgment for our country. McCain, given that he is an elderly 72 year old man, did NOT show sound judgment for our nation in selecting a VP that could quite possibly be called on to take over. He DID NOT "put the country first" in his VP selection.
Don't even start with equating Palin's experience with Obama's. That's Utter Crap and everyone outside of the poor brainwashed 30% of Bush-loving Republicans in this country knows it.
I can't wait until Palin gets asked -- in media interviews -- the tough questions about her religious and environmental beliefs.
The first polls are in:
Larger than expected bounce for Obama ... and ...
"In a separate USA Today/Gallup poll conducted Aug. 29, about 40 percent of respondents said they consider Palin, a 44-year-old first-term governor, qualified to be president -- the lowest level since President George H.W. Bush picked Indiana Senator Dan Quayle as his running mate in 1988. One-third of the people surveyed don't think Palin is qualified, and the rest had no opinion.
By comparison, 57 percent of Americans considered Democratic vice presidential nominee Joe Biden qualified to take the top office if necessary, with 18 percent doubting his qualifications."
Once again reality intrudes on conservative fantasies. Her selection was pure desperation, not brilliance.
Well, these are the kinds of arguments that appeal to you and other reasonalbey well educated liberals who actually follow the election. But they will not seem damming at all to the undecideds who are out there. For instance this poll
http://www.pollingreport.com/science.htm
shows that people in this country actually favor teaching creationism in the public schools and it is not even close 58% to 35%(see the fourth question down by Pew research).
As far as global warming is concerned, who has time to worry about that? People have more important stuff than that to worry about like how they are goint to afford to fill the tank on their SUV. And they think they have the answer to that one - drill.
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