Revisiting Some Predictions

Back in November of 2006, before Obama had even declared his candidacy, I wrote the following:

What I think the pundits and prognosticators fail to fully appreciate at the moment is the extent to which Obama’s entry into the race—if it happens—will entirely shake up the usual dynamics of presidential politics. Let’s put aside for the moment the fact that Obama is an exceptionally gifted politician, and just consider the following. In 1988, Jesse Jackson won 15 states and picked up almost a third of the delegates to the Democratic National Convention. And he did that without picking up hardly any white votes. If Obama were to run, he might well be able to replicate Jackson’s success among black voters, and he would almost certainly do exponentially better among non-black voters. In other words, he would be a formidable primary candidate.

But I think [there's] an even more interesting dynamic that will arise if Obama should manage to secure the Democratic nomination. If that should happen, it will be THE story. And not just here in the U.S., but around the world. Obama would be the first African-American to win a major party’s presidential nomination. He’d be just one momentous day away from becoming the leader of the free world. No matter what else happens in the campaign, no matter who his opponent is, that single story line will dwarf all others. Throughout the campaign, media coverage will be dominated by discussion of the historical significance of the election. Newspaper and magazine headlines will scream “Is America on the Verge of Making History?” Throughout the country, there will be a pervasive sense that we are on the cusp of a dramatic and important historical event, that we’re about to take a bold new step forward as a nation. And believe me, people will get caught up in it. It will be a potent political phenomenon. Obama’s opponent, whether it be McCain or Romney or whoever, will have to try very hard to counter the sense that he is standing athwart history yelling “stop.”

So far so good, and I think the general election dynamic I described is starting to take shape. A number of national polls over the last week show Obama with a lead over McCain that is outside the margin of error. If that lead persists, the realization that we may be on the verge of electing the first African-American president, something most Americans thought they'd never live to see, will start to take hold in earnest, and it will quickly become the dominant media narrative of the campaign.

And that can only help Obama. In recent presidential elections, the media has ranged from being openly hostile to the Democratic nominee (Gore in 2000) to being mostly ambivalent (Kerry in 2004). In this election, however, I already get the sense that--despite their affection for McCain the Maverick--most members of the media, whether they're willing to admit it or not, are rooting for the Big Story. And the Big Story is clearly a black man becoming President of the United States. What reporters and journalists yearn for more than anything else is to be on the front lines when history is made. That's what they live for. And there's no question that an Obama victory would be a momentous historical event.

Not only that, but I get the feeling that many people--and journalists are certainly not immune to this--will come to see Obama's candidacy as a test of how far America has really come in its quest to move beyond its ugly history of racism and racial polarization. And most people, regardless of their political leanings, will--at least on some level--want to see America pass that test. I think that sentiment will be lurking in the background throughout this campaign and will motivate members of the media to go out of their way to be fair to Obama and not allow him to be smeared or subjected to unfair attacks by his opponents. I don't mean to suggest that Obama will be able to avoid swiftboat style attacks or unfair criticism, I just think he's likely to draw more favorable and even-handed coverage than either Al Gore or John Kerry did.

It will be interesting to see how accurate my original prediction turns out to be, but so far at least, I think things are playing out much the way I had imagined they would (much to my surprise).