About Those Town Hall Events
John McCain has challenged Barack Obama to join him in a series of town hall style joint appearances across the country, and now Mike Bloomberg and ABC News have offered to host the first of these town halls meetings in New York City.
The McCain campaign seems to think that McCain does better in town hall settings than in formal speeches (and judging by his performance the other night, that doesn't say all that much). The campaign undoubtedly realizes that if all the public sees of the candidates are dueling speeches, that's going to help Obama and hurt McCain. The town hall setting is more of an equalizer.
That said, my guess is that the McCain campaign is looking for more out of these events than just a level playing field. I suspect that they're hoping for a few different things. First, they're hoping for a Lloyd Bensen moment, a moment in which McCain--in one stroke--uttering marginalizes his far less experienced opponent, the way Lloyd Bentsen did to Dan Quayle in their 1988 Vice Presidential Debate ("Senator, I worked with John Kennedy; I knew John Kennedy. Senator, you're no John Kennedy.")
I don't think Obama will fall into that trap, though. First, he's no Dan Quayle, and the media doesn't perceive him that way. Quayle was a bit of joke even within Republican circles and, as a result, Bentsen was able to get away with a level of disrespect and condescension that McCain won't. If McCain tries something similar, 1) Obama will be prepared to respond and 2) there's likely to be a backlash. McCain can't afford to be utterly dismissive and disrespectful to his opponent, especially when his opponent is someone of Obama's obvious intelligence and happens to be the first African-American nominee of a major party.
Which brings me to the second thing McCain is hoping will happen in these town halls. McCain knows that when reporters ask questions, they're likely to ask questions that have at least some factual basis. When random people are allowed to ask questions, however, they may bring up taboo topics, such as the many scurrilous rumors currently circulating about Obama on the internet (i.e., that he's a Muslim, that he won't pledge allegiance to the flag, etc.). They're also likely to ask more blunt and potentially embarrassing questions about race, about Jeremiah Wright, and other awkward topics. The hope, I think, is that the town hall setting will expose Obama to a much more awkward and difficult set of questions than he would otherwise get and, the McCain camp hopes, generate a number of "Youtube" moments that keep the Obama campaign on the defensive.
From a pure strategy standpoint, I can see why McCain's people want the candidates to appear in this kind of a forum. They may want to be careful what they wish for though. First, McCain himself has generated a number of "Youtube" moments during the campaign at these type of events. Remember his "100 years" comment? Moreover, McCain's entire campaign strategy seems to be centered around portraying Obama as inexperienced, unknowledgable, and unready to be Commander in Chief. But if you put the two candidates together on stage, the optics aren't all that great for McCain. This kind of forum will allow Obama to showcase his knowledge of policy, which is considerable, and look every bit as presidential as McCain (remember he's almost 7 inches taller).
Furthermore, the format itself forces the candidates to be much more respectful and collegial to each other than they would be in a formal speech. We saw this with Clinton and Obama. When Clinton was trying to climb back into the race, she launched a number of blistering attacks on Obama from the stump, but whenever they appeared together on stage for a debate, she was forced to tone down her attacks and treat Obama respectfully. You have to act that way or you risk alienating the crowd and looking like a jerk. This is a problem for McCain because he clearly finds it very hard to conceal his contempt for Obama and doesn't make much of an effort to do so in his solo appearances. Indeed, treating Obama with no respect seems to be an integral part of his campaign strategy, part of his argument that Obama is utterly unqualified to be Commander-in-Chief.
But in these town halls, McCain is going to have to choose whether to act respectfully (thereby making his opponent appear to be his equal and undermining his central campaign theme) or to continue to treat him disrespectfully (thereby looking like a jerk and alienating voters).
Which is, I guess, a long way of saying that I think these town hall events could end up hurting McCain more than they help him. Because this is McCain's idea, Obama's expectations will be low and McCain's high. All Obama has to do is look like he's got as good a grasp on the issues as McCain (which shouldn't be hard) and it's a net win for him. This is a year where the public is already inclined to agree with the Democratic position on most issues. As long as Obama is able to look presidential up there, he'll be fine.
The McCain campaign seems to think that McCain does better in town hall settings than in formal speeches (and judging by his performance the other night, that doesn't say all that much). The campaign undoubtedly realizes that if all the public sees of the candidates are dueling speeches, that's going to help Obama and hurt McCain. The town hall setting is more of an equalizer.
That said, my guess is that the McCain campaign is looking for more out of these events than just a level playing field. I suspect that they're hoping for a few different things. First, they're hoping for a Lloyd Bensen moment, a moment in which McCain--in one stroke--uttering marginalizes his far less experienced opponent, the way Lloyd Bentsen did to Dan Quayle in their 1988 Vice Presidential Debate ("Senator, I worked with John Kennedy; I knew John Kennedy. Senator, you're no John Kennedy.")
I don't think Obama will fall into that trap, though. First, he's no Dan Quayle, and the media doesn't perceive him that way. Quayle was a bit of joke even within Republican circles and, as a result, Bentsen was able to get away with a level of disrespect and condescension that McCain won't. If McCain tries something similar, 1) Obama will be prepared to respond and 2) there's likely to be a backlash. McCain can't afford to be utterly dismissive and disrespectful to his opponent, especially when his opponent is someone of Obama's obvious intelligence and happens to be the first African-American nominee of a major party.
Which brings me to the second thing McCain is hoping will happen in these town halls. McCain knows that when reporters ask questions, they're likely to ask questions that have at least some factual basis. When random people are allowed to ask questions, however, they may bring up taboo topics, such as the many scurrilous rumors currently circulating about Obama on the internet (i.e., that he's a Muslim, that he won't pledge allegiance to the flag, etc.). They're also likely to ask more blunt and potentially embarrassing questions about race, about Jeremiah Wright, and other awkward topics. The hope, I think, is that the town hall setting will expose Obama to a much more awkward and difficult set of questions than he would otherwise get and, the McCain camp hopes, generate a number of "Youtube" moments that keep the Obama campaign on the defensive.
From a pure strategy standpoint, I can see why McCain's people want the candidates to appear in this kind of a forum. They may want to be careful what they wish for though. First, McCain himself has generated a number of "Youtube" moments during the campaign at these type of events. Remember his "100 years" comment? Moreover, McCain's entire campaign strategy seems to be centered around portraying Obama as inexperienced, unknowledgable, and unready to be Commander in Chief. But if you put the two candidates together on stage, the optics aren't all that great for McCain. This kind of forum will allow Obama to showcase his knowledge of policy, which is considerable, and look every bit as presidential as McCain (remember he's almost 7 inches taller).
Furthermore, the format itself forces the candidates to be much more respectful and collegial to each other than they would be in a formal speech. We saw this with Clinton and Obama. When Clinton was trying to climb back into the race, she launched a number of blistering attacks on Obama from the stump, but whenever they appeared together on stage for a debate, she was forced to tone down her attacks and treat Obama respectfully. You have to act that way or you risk alienating the crowd and looking like a jerk. This is a problem for McCain because he clearly finds it very hard to conceal his contempt for Obama and doesn't make much of an effort to do so in his solo appearances. Indeed, treating Obama with no respect seems to be an integral part of his campaign strategy, part of his argument that Obama is utterly unqualified to be Commander-in-Chief.
But in these town halls, McCain is going to have to choose whether to act respectfully (thereby making his opponent appear to be his equal and undermining his central campaign theme) or to continue to treat him disrespectfully (thereby looking like a jerk and alienating voters).
Which is, I guess, a long way of saying that I think these town hall events could end up hurting McCain more than they help him. Because this is McCain's idea, Obama's expectations will be low and McCain's high. All Obama has to do is look like he's got as good a grasp on the issues as McCain (which shouldn't be hard) and it's a net win for him. This is a year where the public is already inclined to agree with the Democratic position on most issues. As long as Obama is able to look presidential up there, he'll be fine.
posted by A.L. at 4:17 PM
15 Comments:
Yeah, McCain has some nerve asking Obama to appear at town hall meetings where regular people might ask him non-media approved questions. Having spent more than a half a term in the US Senate, during some of which he wasn’t running for president, Obama has clearly earned the right to be elected without facing impertinent questions from ordinary voters.
Only a bitter white person would feel any need to question Obama in any way. After all, Obama’s life story is well known. He was the editor of the Harvard Law Review, which clearly shows that he is smarter than anybody who might question him. He was a “community organizer,” the meaning of which may be unclear, but is sufficient to demonstrate that he cares about regular folk (at least as much as is possible from his lofty perch above them). He attended Trinity Church, which shows that he is deeply religious, although he was too busy to develop even a rudimentary understanding of what the church stood for. He was a longtime resident of Chicago, where he had many friends, although most of them turn out to be merely acquaintances who do not reflect his values in any way.
Who needs to know more than that?
Sure, some may question Obama’s foreign policy or military credentials, ignoring the fact that (a) Obama grew up in Indonesia, (b) Obama visited Iraq several years ago, and (c) Obama has probably read many books, or at least newspapers, discussing these subjects. Moreover, he has clearly laid out his foreign policy, which is the exact opposite of George Bush’s, except where that might be distressing to an important bloc of voters. This led to a Washington Post editorial the other day in which it noted that Obama’s AIPAC speech shows his Middle East policy to be “not much different” from the Bush administration. A fact that merely indicates that even the media isn’t smart enough to grasp the nuances in Obama’s policies.
It is perfectly appropriate that McCain has done a hundred or so town hall meetings. Its not like McCain has a record of public service or achievement on which the voters can judge him. Therefore, he needs to go to the voters and answer any questions, friendly or hostile, that they want to throw at him.
But to ask Obama to lower himself to that level? Its an outrage.
Senator Obama has exactly the same amount of experience at being president as Senator Mccain has. Obama has exactly the same amount of experience at being Commander in Chief as McCain has.
So what do we do here? Look at aptitude, native ability and temperament would be a good start and ole' Mac has little to see if you are looking there. lats stop with the MSM 'experience' charade. There is absolutely no job on earth that lends expedience to being President. Look at Bush...they said he had it as a Governor.
It is the man you must look at.
Anonymous- you are exactly right. Aptitude, native ability and temperament are exactly what we should look to in selecting a president. But can I make one suggestion? "Aptitude" and "native ability" kind of sound like the same thing, almost as if you were grasping for things that Obama might score better on than McCain.
How about "aptitude, youth and temperament"? No, that is too obvious. "Aptitude, vigor and temperament"? That's the ticket. We need to select the next president based on "aptitude, vigor and temperament."
MLS,
Did you even read my post? I never said that town halls were bad or that it was somehow wrong for McCain to want them. I just said that I thought part of the political calculus on the part of the McCain camp was that Obama would likely be subjected to more awkward questions (i.e. questions based on inaccurate premises).
In the end, though, I suggested that it probably be a net win for Obama. I'm not denigrating "regular people" when I point out that the questions a candidate receives at a town hall can sometimes include a lot of weird stuff. People are often misinformed about things. Some questions are insightful. Some just reflect ignorance. That's life.
I think Obama will do just fine in the town hall setting and I think he should take McCain up on his offer.
In an early debate I've seen on Youtube, Obama was asked a question about his experience and the number of former Clinton advisers he has on his team.
He fumbled it a bit; there was some laughter & Hilary was heard guffawing over to the side. Obama shot out with:
"I'm looking forward to having you advising me, Hilary!" , totally turning the tables.
Not a Bentsen-Quayle moment exactly, but indicative. This guy can counter-punch.
I think McCain may do well to emerge with a series of draws. He is taking a risk, but then his team may be desperate to get Obama in a forum where they can blunt his eloquence.
A.L. has some nerve asking MLS to read the post before commenting on it. MLS has clearly earned the right to spew irrelevant sarcasm without facing impertinent questions from some blog administrator.
Only a bitter liberal blogger would feel any need to question MLS in any way. After all, MLS’s life story is well known. He is an anonymous blog commenter, which clearly shows that he is smarter than anybody who might question him.
Who needs to know more than that?
"A.L. has some nerve asking MLS to read the post before commenting on it. MLS has clearly earned the right to spew irrelevant sarcasm without facing impertinent questions from some blog administrator.
Only a bitter liberal blogger would feel any need to question MLS in any way. After all, MLS’s life story is well known. He is an anonymous blog commenter, which clearly shows that he is smarter than anybody who might question him.
Who needs to know more than that?"
:: Applause ::
I am not so sure McCain will shine the way Obama would in a joint public setting. McCain might have the "better" answera, but it seems better delivery is how you win the crowd. If McCain loosened up a bit and toned his edginess down, he could be a lot better in the spotlight, at least enough to minimize Obama's charisma.
I think it only benefits Barack to have the "Where is your Lapel Pin you America-Hater?... the "Do you sleep in an American Flag quilt?"... the "Is it true that your father was really, REALLY dark-skinned?" questions come out. Stepping a little outside of this daily vacuum in which we live... we need to realize there are so, so many people who haven't even seen him speak, know nothing of his policy positions, and believe all the tripe handed down to them at church, in email, at the supermarket, etc.
I think an open setting would be awkward at times (again, the stupid questions WILL come), but you gotta think Barack is well aware - and well-prepared for what's coming at him. He will be ready to honestly discuss all these ridiculous things AND be able to go toe-to-toe with The Maverick on all issues.
And, hey, people will still agree with John-John on some things, but as another commenter has noted, Barack has a lot of introductions to make with regard to his policies and background (personal and otherwise). He needs to stump again and again for all the first-timers who will just begin to now pay attention. Again,... to address the voters living and breathing outside of this vacuum of people who follow this stuff (way too closely, I admit!) day-in, day-out.
I guess I'm still concerned at the people choosing to moderate the event -- the same network that blasted the flag pin and bitter scandals as far as they could (to no ultimate avail).
Do you all think Obama would be self-conscious of that? On the one hand, probably not, because he's a great speaker and he kept his composure through all the dumb stuff. On the other hand, he might need a different line other than the "partisan politics" things. Would he benefit from coming out a little more aggressively in a face-to-face with McCain? I would love it.
AL- I did read your post, more than once, actually. My impression was that you saw this purely from a tactical perspective, ie, what is McCain up to and will it hurt or help Obama. You did not seem to consider the possibility that any presidential candidate, and one as unknown as Obama in particular, might have an obligation to appear before regular voters and field tough questions. I also inferred a certain amount of distaste on your part at the idea of “random people” (your words) being able to question Obama. I also think, based on having read your blog for a while now, that you don’t really believe that it is legitimate to question Obama on his background, experience and for that matter even his ideas. This of course entails a certain amount of speculation on my part, but certainly no more so than your musings about McCain’s motivations for inviting Obama to these town halls.
Hey Don- that is some devastating wit you got there. Way to let me have it!
I think you may be a little deep in the crystal ball this time, A.L.
IMO this is no more and no less than the McCain camp trying to neutralize Obama's advantage in the ability to advertise and the fact that 20,000 people and 16 news crews show up to watch him tie his shoes. McCain has limited options to get his mug on TV at this point, and hanging out with Obama is a way to make that happen.
The opportunity to pander to reglur Amurcans is just a bonus.
yup, i second will's point.
town hall meetings are free, equal-time publicity...
and mccain aint got no money.
as for MLS...
....actually, never mind.
If I were involved in the Obama campaign, I'd simply announce that Obama will have his own town hall events. That way, there's no need for John McCain to stay up late, and the voters can ask more questions of Obama.
A town hall setting would be a big plus for Obama because he has charisma and poise and McCain does not. It's hard to imagine Obama's getting any dumber or more irrelevant questions than he got in some of the debates with Hillary, but McCain may get tougher questions than he ever got from the press. The Rev. Wright stuff is out and over, but McCain could be nailed on any of a number of personal scandals the press has yet to highlight. You are right that the game plan will be to hope for dirty questions that McCain can't raise without violating his "clean campaign" pledge, but there is far more for the public to discover about McCain than Obama in that respect. It will backfire and McCain will look small, old, and out of touch - a man desperately trying to control a violent temper behind a silly grin. Any format that puts the two of them side by side is a winner for Obama. After one or two town halls McCain will make up a reason to cancel the rest.
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