Tuesday, May 06, 2008

Is the fat lady singing?

I think we might finally be nearing the end, folks. Obama is going to come away from tonight with a significant net gain in delegates and votes, which will make the already difficult math become almost impossible for Clinton. Obama might even eek out a victory in Indiana. Either way, I have a hunch tonight's outcome will convince a lot of fence-sitting super delegates to break publicly toward Obama in the next few days. There will be increasing pressure over the next week for Clinton to drop out.

Her plan at this point is clearly to brass it out until next week's West Virginia primary, which she's likely to win, and hope that victory will change the overall narrative. My hope is that she pulls a Romney and drops out tomorrow after the reality of the math settles in. If you remember, Romney gave a glass-half-full, we're going all the way to the convention type of speech on the night of Super Tuesday only to announce that he was dropping out the very next day.

Unfortunately, I don't think the Clintons give up so easily. They're still hoping that lightning will strike, the Obama campaign will implode, and they'll be the last ones standing.

Here's hoping they surprise everyone and do what's best for the party.

On an unrelated note, I'm sure you've noticed my complete lack of posts recently. Unfortunately, my job has been exceptionally busy of late. The good news, though, is that my responsibilities will change once again toward the end of the summer (just in time for the general election) and I should have a lot more opportunity to post.
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5 Comments:

Anonymous casual observer said...

AL,

I wondered if last night's results might bring you out. One thing that occurred to me last night is that Senator Clinton's very stubborness is revailing what kind of a president she might make. One of Bush's many bad traits is his inability to perceive reality, and his refusal to change, regardless of what new information comes to light. Clinton is showing much the same behavior now. Take the stubborn divorced-from-reality refusal she is exhibiting now, and place that same behavior in the White House, where it might be applied to issues of foreign policy, or economic policy. I'd suggest that such intractability is not what is needed now in our leadership.

6:45 AM  
Blogger Will said...

Day jobs are for chumps, AL!

Good to see you're still at it, though. I'd comment more often, this chump has work to do...

2:38 PM  
Blogger thebigerns said...

This is perfect karma - after years of castigating Ralph Nader as a "spoiler" the Clintons and their supporters are going to become exactly that. I bet the irony is lost on them, however.

4:40 PM  
Blogger Quiddity said...

Good to hear from you again. I'm afraid that judging from today's reports, Hillary Clinton is going to say in it for quite a while. I wouldn't be surprised to see this go to a credentials/rules committee in August. I understand spin and have seen it from the other candidates (R & D), but Hillary gives off vibes that are totally different. Seat Michigan? Get pledged to switch? (Most recently) White poor folks won't vote for Obama?

It's single-minded and I don't even think is pure ambition (as others have speculated). This is feeling more like she's avenging for something. There is a party-destructive element in her campaign: Saying McCain is better in some ways against Obama. Stressing white Democrats. Whipsawing on the primary rules.

I'm not sure it's the much discussed psychological angle (woman pride, repayment for Bill's transgressions). Her candidacy might be the last stand of the conservative Democratic Leadership Council, which has held sway for so long. The DLC never hesitated to punch the left of the party, so why stop now? Especially if the dynamics (DLC is mostly an Old South Democrat holdover) show that the realignment is complete (R=Confederacy, D=North).

For a chuckle: Read the first sentence in the Wikipedia entry for the DLC and ask yourslef, how does that square with Hillary's summertime Gas Tax Holiday? (and her other rhetoric lately)

10:08 PM  
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