Stop Panicking!
There's an annoying tendency among left-leaning political commentators in this country to prematurely (and openly) worry about the Democratic party's electoral prospects every election cycle. Whenever any flap arises involving a Democrat, a number of articles inevitably follow in which liberal authors openly worry that the incident has mortally wounded the candidate and assured Republican victory in November.
A fine example of this phenomenon comes from John Judis of The New Republic today, who argues that Obama's recent comments will make it very hard for him to win the general election and might even cost him the nomination.
Let's take a deep breath, people. I'll be the first to tell you that anything can happen and I certainly wouldn't be shocked if John McCain beat Barack Obama in the general election, but let's consider some other factors before we all start hyperventilating:
1) The Democrats have not yet begun to fight.
While it's true that McCain's numbers have gone up in the polls lately, it would be shocking if they didn't. While he's wrapped up the GOP nomination, the two leading Democratic candidates are still distracted and attacking each other. At some point, there will be a Democratic nominee and all of the money and effort that's currently being spent on the primary race will suddenly be trained directly on John McCain. It's not going to get any easier for McCain than it is right now, and right now he's still trailing Barack Obama in most polls.
2) The Republican attack machine is being amplified right now in a way that it won't this fall.
John McCain is benefiting immensely from the fact that his interests are temporarily aligned with the Clinton campaign. As this past week demonstrated, if Obama slips up right now, the party doesn't have his back. Indeed, much of the Democratic establishment, in service to the Clinton campaign, is ready to echo and validate the attacks being directed at him by Republicans. At the point when Obama secures the nomination (assuming that happens), this amplification phenomenon will abruptly terminate. Suddenly the entire party will have his back and will focus their efforts on aggressively rebutting Republican smears, not repeating and validating them. That will make it much harder for the GOP to attack Obama effectively.
3) Obama is a much more talented politician than recent Democratic nominees. No offense to Michael Dukakis or John Kerry or Al Gore, but Barack Obama is an infinitely more charismatic and likable politician. His convention speech (and every other major address) will be in a whole different league. He'll be better in the debates and interviews and commercials, too.
4) The political landscape for Democrats is more favorable this election cycle than it has been in decades. This is a change election. The economy is bad. The war is deeply unpopular. John Kerry, a far less talented politician, came very close to winning in 2004, and under conditions that weren't nearly as favorable as they're likely to be this year.
There's no doubt that Republicans will try to use Reverend Wright and "bitter-gate" to attack Obama this fall. And to some extent, those attacks--like all attacks--will take their toll. But there's no reason to panic at this point. Obama is a talented guy who will be playing on favorable terrain. Don't underestimate him.
A fine example of this phenomenon comes from John Judis of The New Republic today, who argues that Obama's recent comments will make it very hard for him to win the general election and might even cost him the nomination.
Let's take a deep breath, people. I'll be the first to tell you that anything can happen and I certainly wouldn't be shocked if John McCain beat Barack Obama in the general election, but let's consider some other factors before we all start hyperventilating:
1) The Democrats have not yet begun to fight.
While it's true that McCain's numbers have gone up in the polls lately, it would be shocking if they didn't. While he's wrapped up the GOP nomination, the two leading Democratic candidates are still distracted and attacking each other. At some point, there will be a Democratic nominee and all of the money and effort that's currently being spent on the primary race will suddenly be trained directly on John McCain. It's not going to get any easier for McCain than it is right now, and right now he's still trailing Barack Obama in most polls.
2) The Republican attack machine is being amplified right now in a way that it won't this fall.
John McCain is benefiting immensely from the fact that his interests are temporarily aligned with the Clinton campaign. As this past week demonstrated, if Obama slips up right now, the party doesn't have his back. Indeed, much of the Democratic establishment, in service to the Clinton campaign, is ready to echo and validate the attacks being directed at him by Republicans. At the point when Obama secures the nomination (assuming that happens), this amplification phenomenon will abruptly terminate. Suddenly the entire party will have his back and will focus their efforts on aggressively rebutting Republican smears, not repeating and validating them. That will make it much harder for the GOP to attack Obama effectively.
3) Obama is a much more talented politician than recent Democratic nominees. No offense to Michael Dukakis or John Kerry or Al Gore, but Barack Obama is an infinitely more charismatic and likable politician. His convention speech (and every other major address) will be in a whole different league. He'll be better in the debates and interviews and commercials, too.
4) The political landscape for Democrats is more favorable this election cycle than it has been in decades. This is a change election. The economy is bad. The war is deeply unpopular. John Kerry, a far less talented politician, came very close to winning in 2004, and under conditions that weren't nearly as favorable as they're likely to be this year.
There's no doubt that Republicans will try to use Reverend Wright and "bitter-gate" to attack Obama this fall. And to some extent, those attacks--like all attacks--will take their toll. But there's no reason to panic at this point. Obama is a talented guy who will be playing on favorable terrain. Don't underestimate him.
posted by A.L. at 8:59 PM
4 Comments:
And the voice of sense is (finally) heard in the land.
I would like to posit that McCain's rise in the polls actually shows how weak a candidate he really is.
Think for a second about what you ask yourself when you see one of those polls. They are barometers of how well Clinton and Obama are doing respectively. If you see them go up or down in the polls, you don't immediately think of what McCain might have done to cause it.
It's all about the Democrats. People are reacting badly to the increasing negativity of the campaign, and McCain might as well be a generic Republican for all the purpose he serves in those polls. That's bad for him. It means that over a month has gone by since he clinched and his campaign hasn't made a footprint yet. I would be more afraid of McCain if his polling numbers seemed to be going up and down with respect to his preformance. That would at least indicate that people cared about him.
There are definitely some positives for the Republicans in the fact that they have a nominee and the Democrats don't. But McCain has done very little to take advantage of this, and the longer he goes without doing so, the less he appears to be even capable of it.
Unfortunately for him, the Democrats are slowly uniting around the stronger of their two candidates, and when they do, the bug will prepare to meet the windshield.
AL writes: "While it's true that McCain's numbers have gone up in the polls lately, it would be shocking if they didn't. While he's wrapped up the GOP nomination, the two leading Democratic candidates are still distracted and attacking each other."
While that may be true, isn't that a sad commentary on the electorate? It's as if they can't see where their interest lie until the Democratic nomination is settled. (I'm assuming for the sake of argument that Democratic policies are viewed as better.)
Why, after dissatisfaction with the Iraq War, the economy, and various other issues (civil liberties, global warming), isn't the electorate firmly committed to the Democrats?
It has been awhile since I visited your blog A L.
It is refreshing to not only read intelligent posts it is a breath of fresh air reading intelligent comments, too.
The only thing that worries me about McCain is he is free to define himself at this point as a "pragmatic moderate" which hardly describes him.
One good thing though is that it will be more difficult, I think, to define Barack Obama since this election has been covered extensively on the news. After all the first woman and AA man to have successfully gotten this far is history -- groundbreaking history.
Nonetheless pundits have been working to define Obama, in not such a handily way, however, if as you say, the democratic party comes out in full force in support of Obama it will make difference -- something I had not considered before now. I had questioned why the 'elders' were allowing the rovian attacks to continue, but you are correct they are behind Hillary.
Needless to say it has been painful to watch Hillary morph into a republican attack-machine.
On the other hand Obama has done a magnificent job deflecting her attacks with humour. As a result it makes a comeback that much more impossible. It must be infuriating for his opponents. LOL And he makes us think.
Whether it has been out of frustration or a real dislike for Obama, Hillary has mangled her campaign to the point where she has seemingly self-destructed.
I do not know if this is the true HRC and/or got bad advice, either way she followed it. Coupled with running a chaotic campaign, embellishing stories and refusing to take responsibility explain in-part why she lost. There are certainly other reasons, however she sunk herself.
Moreover people are really ready for change.
America is not supposed to be a dynasty not this time. We've had enough of Bush/Clinton/Bush/Clinton.
Mark my words, Obama will win the election, not McCain.
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