Winning Ugly
As I survey the landscape of the Democratic primary race, I'm convinced that the only plausible path to the nomination that remains for Hillary Clinton is one which is so ugly, so divisive, and so self-destructive that no Democrat--even those who prefer Clinton to Obama--should root for that outcome.
Looking at the states with contests remaining and the way the delegates are aportioned, it seems highly unlikely that Clinton will be able to do anything more than shave a little bit off of Obama's lead. She did about as well as she could have hoped for on Tuesday in two of the biggest states remaining, and she came away with only a miniscule net gain in delegates. And as long as Obama maintains his fairly significant lead in pledge delegates and continues to match up well against McCain in general election polls, it seems highly unlikely that Clinton will be able to woo enough super-delegates to make up that difference.
The only circumstance under which I can see enough super-delegates flocking to Clinton to push her over the top--and thereby nominate the candidate with fewer earned delegates--is if Obama's image becomes so badly tarnished over the next few months that he no longer seems like a viable general election candidate. Or to put it another way, the super-delegates aren't going to overturn the outcome of the pledged delegate race unless they are convinced that Obama is damaged goods and that nominating him would lead to defeat. That means that Clinton's only plausible path to the nomination is to completely savage Obama's image and reputation. As Jonathan Chait put it today:
I'm not one of those people who thinks Clinton should just drop out. The race has been and continues to be very close and Clinton has come too far and had too much success to back out now. If she dropped out now, especially after her success on Tuesday, it would be unfair to her millions of supporters and donors, not to mention her staff, who have dedicated over a year of their lives to her campaign. She owes it to them to soldier on for a while longer and hope that the improbable happens.
That said, those supporters and donors and staff need to think long and hard about what lengths they are willing to go, and what strategies they are willing to support, in order to see their candidate prevail. How ugly a win are they willing to stomach? If the Clinton campaign decides that it's going to try to kneecap Obama so badly that party officials will have no choice but to choose Clinton (and thereby reverse the outcome of the elected delegate race), are they okay with that? Have they thought about how that might affect the Democratic party? Is winning in that way worth it?
I don't think most Clinton supporters have really given this much thought. But they need to.
Looking at the states with contests remaining and the way the delegates are aportioned, it seems highly unlikely that Clinton will be able to do anything more than shave a little bit off of Obama's lead. She did about as well as she could have hoped for on Tuesday in two of the biggest states remaining, and she came away with only a miniscule net gain in delegates. And as long as Obama maintains his fairly significant lead in pledge delegates and continues to match up well against McCain in general election polls, it seems highly unlikely that Clinton will be able to woo enough super-delegates to make up that difference.
The only circumstance under which I can see enough super-delegates flocking to Clinton to push her over the top--and thereby nominate the candidate with fewer earned delegates--is if Obama's image becomes so badly tarnished over the next few months that he no longer seems like a viable general election candidate. Or to put it another way, the super-delegates aren't going to overturn the outcome of the pledged delegate race unless they are convinced that Obama is damaged goods and that nominating him would lead to defeat. That means that Clinton's only plausible path to the nomination is to completely savage Obama's image and reputation. As Jonathan Chait put it today:
Last Tuesday, voting in states that were especially Clinton friendly and represented 38% of the remaining elected dlegates, she managed to reduce Obama's elected delegate lead by about 3%. Even if every primary going forward was as successful as March 4, she couldn't get anywhere near a 75-delegate deficit...And I fear that's exactly what she's trying to do. The irony of it is that her chief attack--that Obama somehow lacks the necessary "experience" to be president--is breathtakingly short-sighted. The reality is that--defined by any reasonable metric--Clinton is (at best) only marginally more experienced than Obama and far less experienced than John McCain, the person Clinton will have to face in November if she succeeds in derailing Obama's candidacy. Playing the experience card not only hurts Obama; it hurts Clinton badly in the long term.
...Unless, of course, she just rips his guts out and disqualifies him as a plausible president. That's the only move she can make that could have any hope of getting her elected delegate lead under 100, and persuade a majority of uncommitted superdelegates to back her.
I'm not one of those people who thinks Clinton should just drop out. The race has been and continues to be very close and Clinton has come too far and had too much success to back out now. If she dropped out now, especially after her success on Tuesday, it would be unfair to her millions of supporters and donors, not to mention her staff, who have dedicated over a year of their lives to her campaign. She owes it to them to soldier on for a while longer and hope that the improbable happens.
That said, those supporters and donors and staff need to think long and hard about what lengths they are willing to go, and what strategies they are willing to support, in order to see their candidate prevail. How ugly a win are they willing to stomach? If the Clinton campaign decides that it's going to try to kneecap Obama so badly that party officials will have no choice but to choose Clinton (and thereby reverse the outcome of the elected delegate race), are they okay with that? Have they thought about how that might affect the Democratic party? Is winning in that way worth it?
I don't think most Clinton supporters have really given this much thought. But they need to.
posted by A.L. at 10:57 PM
28 Comments:
That means that Clinton's only plausible path to the nomination is to completely savage Obama's image and reputation.
You seem to suggest that Obama is not responsible for his own image and reputation. Under your theory, Hillary is responsible for the inconsistent comments Obama (or his staff) makes to foreign governments versus what he tells the American public. And, that Hillary is responsible for Obama's bad judgment to have business dealings with Rezko.
I've seen projection before, but this takes the cake.
the inconsistent comments Obama (or his staff) makes to foreign governments versus what he tells the American public. And, that Hillary is responsible for Obama's bad judgment to have business dealings with Rezko.
I appreciate that no one actually has to say what those inconsistencies are or what the bad judgments were. They are just fact now.
Similarly, all that need be said is the ominous word Whitewater and then we can all conclude something Bad happened.
I think you need to remove your projection lens from your colon.
For more on this see:
http://www.salon.com/opinion/greenwald/2008/03/05/rezko/index.html
I've been eagerly awaiting the AL perspective on recent events. Thanks for the post.
My gut sense is that we are in for a sustained attack on Obama by Clinton on the CiC issue (and related terrorism, e.g. her statement today that the bombing in Times Square showed the need for someone capable in a crisis).
Maybe things will cool down, but I've been struck at the near-explosive burst of attacks on Obama by Clinton herself (!) in the last 48 hours. It's a combination of relief and confidence following Tuesday's vote, along with a desperation due to the numbers and the calendar.
"If the Clinton campaign decides that it's going to try to kneecap Obama so badly that party officials will have no choice but to choose Clinton (and thereby reverse the outcome of the elected delegate race), are they okay with that? Have they thought about how that might affect the Democratic party? Is winning in that way worth it?"
The answer is: they don't care. They don't care! Hillary's not-so-subtle endorsement of McCain over fellow Democratic candidate, Obama, is further proof that she just does not care.
If you look back over the way Clinton has operated since early December, she's run her campaign on her inevitability and her (and her staff's) feeling that THAT IS HILLARY'S TURN. The more her her campaign realizes that it might not be her turn, the far nastier they will get.
(p.s.- release your tax records, Senator Clinton)
Agreeing with DeepSouth. AL, they've already made the choice to win ugly. You need look no further than her hemming and hawing over the "is he a Muslim?" question to see that. I grew up in working class Democratic NE Ohio and knew how devastating keeping alive that rumor would be in must-win Ohio for Obama's candidacy now and in November--and so did she. It was as despicable as anything Karl Rove has ever done.
It is ironic that the Clintons legacy (who were once revered by African Americans) could read that they split the Democratic party and drove many African Americans away from the Democratic Party over personal ambition.
None of the negativity highlighted in the press was evident at a district convention/caucus I attended in Texas March 4th. Attendance was well over 10X what it normally is. Obama won about 60%-40% in a quite rural area. There was abundant good will, and even a sense of fun and excitement among all the caucus-goers there. Democratic leadership should not take this turnout for granted. They should not assume it is transferable to the general election if their candidates spend a couple of months throwing dogshit at each other. All it will do is deflate enthusiasm, diminish turnout, and degrade the democratic message.
Negativity is now what the press is focused on. The horse race is done. They see the delegate numbers as well as anyone else does. So the narrative is now the attacks--that is what they want. The longer this goes, the more negativity the press will milk out of the race, and the more dissapation and disappointment on the part of democratic voters.
Anonymous might also want to check out this video - which pretty much exonerates Obama from any hypocrisy over NAFTA. Most of the evidence points to a fit up by either the Bush administration or the Clinton campaign. If I were an American citizen I would be furious at the lying and smearing which is currently going on and would be asking serious questions of my national media. Fortunately I am not - either those of you who are do so, or America slides further into a position of irrelevance with respect to the rest of the world. Good Luck out there - you're all going to need it...
http://www.cbc.ca/mrl3/8752/vsu/wmv-hi/macdonald-obama-memo080303.wmv
If Hillary manages to pull this thing out, she will do so at the cost of the Democratic party. By holding up McCain as a better candidate than her rival, she's crossed a line. I doubt I'm the only Democrat who will sit this one out and vote either Green or Republican simply to keep her and Bill out of the White House. Her latest persona is that of petulant, spoiled child, who is having a major hissy fit at the thought of being denied of something she so desperately wants.
so are we going to let the first commenter's nonsense go without answer?
Oh, to be so well informed that you know about Obama alleged "inconsistent" remarks to foreign governments (about NAFTA obviously), but to be so selectively ignorant as not to have learned subsequently that the whole thing was a bogus leak planted by the conservative Canadian government to cause more bloodletting in the Democratic nominating process; and furthermore not to know that the campaign operative who actually did tell the Canadians to take his/her candidate's comments on NAFTA with "a grain of salt" was actually speaking for the Clinton team.
This is all a matter of public record, for which the Canadians have already apologized. Look it up.
And then, of course, to drag out the utterly substanceless Rezko boogeyman.
Sir, or Madam, whatever you are - all civility aside, you are either a troll, an imbecile, or a knowing propagandist.
In other words, Hillary's current base.
If you add back in do-overs for Michigan and Florida, I'm not sure how ugly Clinton has to win. Somewhat ugly, to be sure, but she'll have a lot more delegate wiggle room than she does right now. Of course, Obama could dig his heels in and insist on the status quo, if he's willing to concede both states to McCain.
I'm still amazed at how mind-numbingly, bull-headedly, cluelessly stupid Howard Dean and the rest of the DNC were to completely disqualify MI and FL. Did they even once ask themselves what would happen if they disenfranchised the 4th and 8th largest states in the US and then they wound up with a close election?? Did this never occur to them?
I sure hope that the overwhelmingly Democratic Congress that we're about to elect has a better feel for unintended consequences than their party leadership does. I'm not sanguine.
If your premise is that Clinton can do irreparable damage to Obama, but cannot win without doing irreparable damage to herself, then logically you should advocate Obama’s dropping out of the race. By staying in, he forces Clinton to do that which will ensure that neither of them win.
Sure, you could say that Clinton should not put her own ambitions before the interests of her party. But, you know, birds gotta fly, fish gotta swim. Is a woman who sought to defame and intimidate the powerless recipients of her husband’s unwanted sexual advances going to stop at casting a few aspersions on the character and experience of Senator Obama? Not likely.
But I think you may be too worried about the damage that Clinton is likely to do. For example, I don’t think that the voters are going to care that much what she has to say about Obama’s experience. In fact, the reason the red phone commercial worked, IMO, is not so much because Obama lacks experience, but because it points up this question: “what do I really know about this guy, anyway?” That is what Obama has to worry about, regardless of whether Clinton brings it up. Even thought McCain is an honorable man and (therefore) not very good at this politics stuff, it still is going to be one of the core issues in the general election.
There is another path to the nomination for Clinton other than the one that you mention. If Clinton wins PA, and a revote of MI and FL, it is possible that her popular vote total will be higher than Obama's.
To win the nomination, a candidate must get one-half plus one of all delegates, not one-half plus one of all pledged delegates. The Obama campaign has so far successfully put forward the position that somehow the pledged delegate leader should get special consideration from the superdelegates. But what if the pledged delegate leader and the popular vote leader are not the same? Granted, the popular vote is harder to calculate in these circumstances, but if one candidate is clearly perceived to be the popular vote winner that is very powerful and represents "the will of the people" as much as the pledged delegates.
To see that pledged delegate totals don't always represent "the will of the people" one only has to look at Texas. Clinton won the primary by 100,000 votes (or 4%) out of almost 3,000,000 cast. The evening caucus was a subset of these voters since only voters in the primary could attend the caucus. Yet, Obama won the caucus by 12% and therefore won more pledged delegates total. Since the caucus was a subset of the primary it's difficult to argue that Obama "won" Texas even though he got more delegates. She got 100,000 more votes. In this case, the pledged delegates results did not represent "the will of the people" unless you believe that caucus goers deserve two votes instead of one. (I'm not saying the delegate totals are wrong. According to the rules, Obama won more delegates. But given the results of the much larger primary, in which the same people voted, the pledged delegate results do seem "undemocratic".)
If Obama leads in pledged delegates and popular vote going into the convention, I believe that he will win the nomination. But if Clinton wins the remaining big states (PA and the FL and MI revotes) by a large enough margin to throw the popular vote leader into doubt (or clearly win the popular vote), she has a strong argument to convince the superdelegates to legitimately swing the nomination to her. She does not have to lead in pledged delegates or make Obama appear overly "damaged".
There is no precedent for a nominating race this close under the current rules. Superdelegates can use whatever method they choose to decide between the candidates. Voting for the leader in pledged delegates is one such method, but there is no particular reason why pledged delegates should take precedence over the popular vote. Some Obama supporters have convinced themselves that the leader in pledged delegate leader is all important, but they are the deciding factor only if a candidate wins 2,025 or more pledged delegates. If not, other factors such as popular vote (or even "electability") could be considered just as legitimate to the superdelegates.
If superdelegates were never meant to override the pledged delegate count under any circumstances, there would be no reason for superdelegates to exist. (Some would argue that they shouldn't exist, but that doesn't negate the fact that for now--at least until 2012--they do.) The very existence of superdelegates is for exactly the kind of situation that we are in now--where they will decide the nomination. That may seem undemocratic or make some people uncomfortable, but in a race this close where different metrics of winning (pledged delegates, popular vote, big state wins, electability) may be all over the map, the only way to ultimately decide the may be an "arbitrary" decision by the superdelegates (a tie-breaker if you will). The rules (as agreed to by all parties) state that in this situation, the superdelegates decide the nominee. The superdelegates will give this nomination to one of these two candidates. (It's almost certain now that neither candidate can earn the nomination based on their pledged delegate totals.) I may not agree with the superdelegates' ultimate choice, but their choice will be within the rules, and I will certainly accept it. I will vote for the Democratic nominee even if that person is not my first choice because to do otherwise would be to let my own disappointment doom us to another four years of the Republican dismantling of the nation and likely put a conservative majority on the Supreme Court for many years to come.
Hey, good to see you back! Glad to hear your thoughts on such things. I can't believe that Clinton is boosting McCain over Obama. Ridiculous.
PS: You seem to be pretty busy lately. If you need any sort of blog-support--i.e., post topics, interwebs combing, or other grunt work you could think of--drop me an email.
wow. after reading numerous similar analyses, it still took your use of the word "kneecap" to bring it all into focus.
Hillary Clinton is Tonya Harding.
Barack Obama is Nancy Kerrigan.
Mark Penn is Shane Stant.
Bill Clinton is Jeff Gillooly.
Tonya won the U.S. Figure Skating Championships that she forced Kerrigan to withdraw from.
But Kerrigan came back a month later to compete in the Winter Olympics in Lillehammer. She finished... second, behind Oksana Baiul. Harding, who threatened to sue the Olympics, was allowed to compete too. She came in eighth. None of them ever skated professionally again.
This article is excedingly generous about Clinton's chances of reducing Obama's pledged delegate lead. A close look at the numbers shows Clinton probably cannot close the gap much at all.
A couple things...
One, someone mentioned Clinton hemming and hawing re: whether or not he's a Muslim. I don't feel you can pin that on her; she was asked a stupid question without an answer. She said "no, of course not," but they pressed forward anyway. At that point, what can she say? It's not easy to respond to rank stupidity with sensibility.
Re: whether Hillary should drop out, this is an interesting situation. She's behind, sure... but she has had wins in some awfully nice states. I'm not sure how you call the proper nominee in these cases. If Obama had won in Texas or Ohio... but he didn't. One could as easily argue that Obama should drop out and let the winner of the bigger states have the candidacy because he's unlikely to win the nomination outright.
(NB: I really, really, really, *really*, prefer Obama. If I vote for Clinton, it will be with re-breather equipment - merely holding my nose won't be enough. But I can't deny that, if they both fall shy of the pledged delegates necessary, there's no specific way to say "this one person deserves the nod". It's too complicated.)
Kroft asked the question initially because the rumor seemed widespread and important among some Ohio voters. Growing up in working class Ohio, I have no doubt it was. You really think Clinton didn't know this as well? Kroft's point was, clearly, to debunk the scurrilous rumor before a nationwide audience. He rightly "pressed forward" with a follow-up only because Clinton qualified her first answer, weirdly, with "I take him on the basis of what he says" (as if the issue could conceivably be in doubt). To make sure the issue was kept alive she added "as far as I know" to the end of the second answer. If you really think the impression she wanted to convey in her answers was that the issue was ridiculous, then imagine Obama had given those same answers to the question "Do you think Sen. Clinton had Vince Foster killed?" Obviously, the answer to that question and the answer to the one asked Hillary was "No, of course not [Full stop]"
(Oh, and by the way, Brutus was NOT really "an honourable man".)
Well said.
But I am afraid that Hillary is too ambitious and will stoop to any lows to win.
So far, the Obama campaign has been one of the most dishonest, ugliest and most divisive since Ted Kennedy's in 1980. Obama's supporters come in two stripes: thugs that would do the right proud and the obsequious whose religious fervor is an embarrassment.
Obama should, for the good of the country and party, withdraw.
Mike
Hi A.L.,
You wrote that Hillary's "base" supporters are either "a troll, an imbecile, or a knowing propagandist."
I support Hillary Clinton and none of those descriptions fits me. I am an attorney in New York City; I have two graduate degrees, one from Columbia, and the other from Fordham Law, and I have 60 hours of Philosophy from St John's. I am even sipping a latte as I type. But I do believe Mrs Clinton is a sound candidate for POTUS, and Mr Obama might be, but I don't know that. Have you seen the piece by Todd Spivak, "Obama and Me" in the Dallas Observer. I won't try posting the link, but you should be able to find it if you haven't already seen it. I would like to know your response to that.
And I would ask that you would be a little more polite to people who basically agree with you on everything except this. Part of my hesitation about Obama is the nastiness of his supporters. Hillary supporters can be nasty too, but in as much of the blogosphere I have visited lately, the nasty posts from Obama supporters lead those of Hillary supporters by about 10 to 1.
mcleod:
That wasn't the blog's author that wrote "a troll, an imbecile, or a knowing propagandist."
It was an "annonymous" commenter to the article! Not "THE" Annonymous Liberal. A tad confusing perhaps at first glance, but at first glance only.
Note that "annonymous" is one of the choices for attribution when posting a comment.
So don't get the wrong idea for the wrong reason.
-- another lawyer
Thanks Blue. Didn't know that. Sorry A.L.
I believe in Hillary:
Hillary is the candidate with the necessary gravitas to win in November. She is a proven, competent and, yes, inspiring WOMAN. I believe in Hillary and I trust in her as the strongest candidate to lead our country forward in these very serious times.
I worry that those who campaign for Barak Obama do so at our country's peril. Yes, he offers mesmerizing speeches...some say poetry; but at this moment, when our economy is in free fall, when our troops need to be brought home safely, when we desperately need universal health care and more, Senator Obama's soaring baritone will not be enough to carry us to the White House, much less effect significant change.
I worry that the outrageous abuses we've endured these past seven years under the Bush administration have made us so yearn for change that many of us are now seduced by nostalgic evocations of past legends and visions of a new Camelot. These wistful longings, however legitimate and inspirational, are not enough to carry us to the White House.
Even more, I worry that anti-Hillary slurs originated by talk-radio ideologues and neo-conservative think tanks now permeate the sound bites coming from many in our very own party and turn us away from a talented and smart candidate who is ready to actually make change happen. Republicans are giddy these days and, should they succeed in their coup to dispatch Hillary, they will turn their sights on Barak with equal or greater ferocity. Bipartisanship is not in their vocabulary, and they will do anything to remain in control of the White House as well as regain control of Congress. We must not allow "rovespeak" to divide us from within.
The reality I see tells me that if we are to avoid a train wreck in November, our party needs to nominate a tested and experienced leader: one who has been through the "learning curve" of the Washington beltway; one who is poised to meet any and all obstacles put in her way; one who has weathered and withstood the Republican attack machine; and one who will be able to stand strong and push back with, "Been there; done that; it's time to move on."
To win in November, we need a Democratic nominee who has the ideas, the resources and the muscle to move our country forward.
Please join me in supporting Hillary. Together we win."
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