Facing Reality

The last few days appear to have marked a turning point in the conventional wisdom about the Democratic presidential race. First there was Adam Nagourney's article in the New York times which concluded that "[i]f there is a road to victory for Mrs. Clinton, it is a fairly narrow one."

Then Mark Halperin--the former editor of the ultimate oracle of media conventional wisdom, The Note--chimed in, noting that Clinton "can’t win the nomination without a bloody convention battle — after which, even if she won, history and many Democrats would cast her as a villain." He also reported, significantly, that "Nancy Pelosi and other leading members of Congress don’t think she can win and want her to give up. Same with superdelegate-to-the-stars Donna Brazile."

And the real coup de grace was today's Politico article by Jim Vandehei and Mike Allen, which began with this:

One big fact has largely been lost in the recent coverage of the Democratic presidential race: Hillary Rodham Clinton has virtually no chance of winning.

It is difficult to understate how well-respected and influential Vandehei, Allen, and Nagourney are among the small tribe of reporters who set the tone of political coverage in this country. And no one is a more accurate indicator of press corps conventional wisdom than Halperin. So you can pretty much take it to the bank that the vast majority of reporters who cover politics at a national level no longer believe that Clinton has a plausible path to victory.

It's also probably safe to conclude that most party insiders and elected officials--the folks who make up the superdelegate pool--are starting to see Clinton's chances similarly. Governor Bill Richardson, who endorsed Obama today, all but admitted in post-endorsement interviews that he was really close to endorsing Senator Clinton just a few weeks ago. His change of heart was undoubtedly fueled, at least to some extent, but his assessment that Clinton could no longer win (at least without tearing the party apart).

What Democrats are starting to realize is that Hillary Clinton's only remaining path to the nomination is one that will do irreparable harm to her party. Obama can win the nomination in a way that even his detractors will concede is legitimate. He can (and likely will) finish with the most pledged delegates, the most votes, the most states won, and the most super-delegates. He can run the table. Clinton, on the other hand, can only win the super-delegates and--if she does exceedingly well in the remaining contests--pull close to even in total votes.

More importantly, though, the only way Clinton can win enough superdelegates to overcome Obama's pledged delegate lead is if Obama's public image becomes so tarnished that the superdelegates start to panic about his general election prospects. Realizing this, the Clinton campaign has been trying to use the Reverend Wright controversy to generate doubt about Obama among the superdelegates.

But that's an exceedingly dangerous road to follow. Imagine for a moment that this strategy succeeds and that the first black candidate to have a legitimate shot at becoming president has the nomination taken away from him--despite winning more pledged delegates, more states, and more votes--by unelected superdelegates who, at the last moment, got cold feet because they learned that Obama's former pastor once said some things that sounded a little "too angry" and a little "too black." Needlessly to say, that outcome wouldn't sit very well with a lot of people.

Under that scenario, Clinton would not be considered a legitimate nominee by a large percentage of the party, and many of Obama's supporters (including, most notably, young voters and African-Americans) would be enraged and embittered by the outcome. It would be devastating to the party and might well fracture the Democratic coalition. Though I rarely, if ever, agree with anything Bob Novak writes, I think he's right about this:

. . . the Democratic "nightmare scenario" has gotten even more nightmarish. If Clinton wins on the strength of the super-delegates despite trailing in pledged delegates and the popular vote, then party insiders will have blocked the historic first nomination of a black candidate -- and now they will have done so because of racial fears regarding a black preacher.

As I've said before, Clinton can only win ugly at this point. Her supporters should really consider whether that kind of a win is worth it.