When Will the Endorsements Come?
It's the eve of the New Hampshire primary so forgive me for pretending to be a horserace-obsessed pundit for a moment.
If the polls are accurate, it seems likely that Barack Obama will win tomorrow. If he doesn't, obviously the race will be wide open (indeed, it might even favor Clinton). But if he wins, then he'll have won both Iowa and New Hampshire. Everyone who has ever done that--both Democrat and Republican--has gone on to win the nomination.
That said, I don't expect the Clinton campaign will fold up its tent so quickly. They'll set their sights on February 5 and pray that Obama slips up by then, that his train runs out of steam and that voters and pundits start to get buyer's remorse. And you never know. It could work.
There are some events that could further tip the scales in Obama's favor, though. Part of the reason that presidential campaigns end so quickly is that important players within the party intervene and throw their support behind the likely winner. Vanquished candidates begin to drop out and endorse the leaders. Influential party members do the same. Clinton is less susceptible to this kind of pressure than most candidates because she already has a number of endorsements from key party members. But if she keeps losing the early states, it is inevitable that people will start endorsing Obama.
In the wake of his Iowa victory, Obama received the endorsement of Bill Bradley. If he wins in New Hampshire, look for him to start pulling in some more consequential endorsements. John Edwards has already signaled that he'll support Obama if his own bid fails. Biden and Dodd might well choose to endorse him too. And there are lots of governors and other popular Democrats who have not yet endorsed anyone.
The biggest one out there, of course, is Al Gore. It has long been rumored that if Gore were to endorse anyone, it would be Obama. If he were to endorse him following a victory in New Hampshire (or South Carolina), it might well seal Obama's victory. It would be a major development in the race.
If the polls are accurate, it seems likely that Barack Obama will win tomorrow. If he doesn't, obviously the race will be wide open (indeed, it might even favor Clinton). But if he wins, then he'll have won both Iowa and New Hampshire. Everyone who has ever done that--both Democrat and Republican--has gone on to win the nomination.
That said, I don't expect the Clinton campaign will fold up its tent so quickly. They'll set their sights on February 5 and pray that Obama slips up by then, that his train runs out of steam and that voters and pundits start to get buyer's remorse. And you never know. It could work.
There are some events that could further tip the scales in Obama's favor, though. Part of the reason that presidential campaigns end so quickly is that important players within the party intervene and throw their support behind the likely winner. Vanquished candidates begin to drop out and endorse the leaders. Influential party members do the same. Clinton is less susceptible to this kind of pressure than most candidates because she already has a number of endorsements from key party members. But if she keeps losing the early states, it is inevitable that people will start endorsing Obama.
In the wake of his Iowa victory, Obama received the endorsement of Bill Bradley. If he wins in New Hampshire, look for him to start pulling in some more consequential endorsements. John Edwards has already signaled that he'll support Obama if his own bid fails. Biden and Dodd might well choose to endorse him too. And there are lots of governors and other popular Democrats who have not yet endorsed anyone.
The biggest one out there, of course, is Al Gore. It has long been rumored that if Gore were to endorse anyone, it would be Obama. If he were to endorse him following a victory in New Hampshire (or South Carolina), it might well seal Obama's victory. It would be a major development in the race.
posted by A.L. at 9:57 PM
31 Comments:
you noted recently that for whatever reason the press loves obama. i've been noticing this phenomenon everywhere lately...if nothing else i think that's an incredible leg up against the republicans. the press puts on kid gloves when it comes to obama, and seems to feel much more comfortable writing upbeat stories about the "historic" nature of an obama presidency. time magazine had glowing column after glowing column as soon as obama was judged to be viable (i.e. after iowa). obviously far too early to be certain, but my gut says he's got a great shot at the whitehouse.
already, however, i can already see part of the attack mechanism. the comments online responding to some of the articles about obama are by right-wing nuts throwing around obama's supposedly muslim roots. that story didn't gain traction the first time -- the mainstream press is not that stupid -- but i think a whisper campaign will began to that effect as soon as he is considered the prime target. i bet republicans will search for a way to say something seemingly mainstream about obama (maybe something about not sharing values) that contains a coded message essentially telling certain voters that he's a Muslim infidel posing as a Christian. if i was obama's campaign team i'd start preparing a defense now.
Gore was my first choice for President, but he didn't run. I've now come around to supporting Obama.
Perhaps the symbolism is too strong for a Gore endorsement just prior to Florida. Or maybe just right. Who knows. But... perhaps Obama won't need a Gore endorsement. Gore could delay it until the nominating convention or the Fall for maximum effect.
Slight tangent... one thing that Obama has surprisingly not made a big deal of is Osama bin Laden. Hillary and Edwards chose to abandon the hunt for Osama to support Bush's Iraq War. While Obama warned that we should keep our eye on the ball. Obama wasn't only right on Iraq, he was also right on bin Laden. That sort of doubles the good judgement.
If Obama falters, I really think he needs to bring this argument out onto the campaign.
Gore has developed a stubborn streak of independence. Like buzzrd, Gore was my first choice, for obvious reasons. One couldn't listen to speeches like the one Gore gave at Constitution Hall on MLK day and not know that he was the right man for the job. If one puts the global warming issue to the side, Gore perhaps stresses two fundamental issues. First, that our constitutional principles are under serious attack, and that reason itself is under attack. Including an assault on science and scientists. Neither Obama nor Clinton have highlighted either issue. Yes, they pay some lip-service in passing. But these issues are not central (unbelievably) to either candidate. In my view, Gore has no obligation to endorse anyone who has not heard heard his message, and not brought these concepts on board in a significant way.
Never forget the dimwits, I say. I've already seen that stupid email with the attached picture of Obama "refusing" to place hand-on-heart while on stage with other prez candidates at a recent event (during the pledge of allegiance.) And, hey, who could forget that "unpatriotic" stance of Obama refusing to don the mini-flag lapel, therefore proving he hates America?
Painting the stupids of this country with too broad a brush? Maybe. But don't underestimate the power of a non-story when you're looking for a way to tear down your opponent.
Policy arguments? Nonsense. This guy is building madrassas a cab's ride from O'Hare... gotta be true, I read it on the internets.
I have a thought about Edward's somewhat surprising support for Obama: He's angling for the VP job. It would be a great opportunity for Edwards, being quite popular but seen as "needing experience", a smart party move since it would groom a strong Democratic candidate for 2016. It would also help keep on board the "angry left" (such as myself) and southern whites who might hesitate to vote for a black man.
Another thought about Obama's popularity: I think a lot of people liked him a lot but had certain reservations. His Iowa win made it acceptable for those on the fence to go with their gut.
I might have omitted an important comma from my comment above: as it reads it sounds like the "angry left AND southern whites might hesitate..." Just in case there are any politically correct thought police stalking here, I should have put a comma between them; I don't really think the "angry left" has a problem with voting for a black man!
Do you think Obama's past has been sufficiently vetted? It's an honest question. I have not reviewed whether or not Obama's previous races have been well researched by his opponents.
That's the only thing I'm worried about with him. I don't want to find out after the nomination that he has been arrested for a serious crime (I have no reason to suspect that such a thing ever happened). I think we know about all of the knowable skeletons in Clinton's and Edwards' closets.
I wish Russert had pressed Obama a little more on that during his Dec. 30 interview. Below is an excerpt from the transcript of the relevant part:
"MR. RUSSERT: Have you been sufficiently tested and vetted? (Obama nods head) Are there any surprises? (Obama shakes head) Is there anything the American people should know?
"SEN. OBAMA: There are no surprises, in part because the Clinton, the Clinton campaign has done a, I think, a thorough research job on us. If there was anything out there, I promise you, they would have found it by now, which is why they ended up resorting to some of the stuff that you're talking about. The only reason people know it is because I disclosed it. And some of it was completely false.
"Now, look, I have been written about, I have been scrubbed, I have been vetted over the last year. I'm sure if you talk to my wife she could point out a few more flaws in my character, but the fact of the matter is that the people of Iowa and I think the people of America at this point know what I stand for. I'm in public service because I believe in the American people. I think that I--that if government is working well, we can knock down barriers to their American dream. The proposals and policies that I've put forward are ones that I've been putting forward for the last 20 years, and there's a consistency there, whether it's in terms of how we deal with the war in Iraq, how we deal with healthcare, how we deal with making sure that every child in America has the kind of education they deserve. When people look back on the track record--and, in fact, I think David Brooks in The New York Times wrote about it--they, they find that I have been consistent in my values and my ideals and the choices I've made in my life to be an organizer or a civil rights lawyer or to be a public servant. People, I think, can have confidence that I am who I say I am."
Since Obama is apparently drawing large numbers of Independents and Republicans, it will be interesting to see if he gets key endorsements from across the aisle. Maybe Colin Powell, for example, in partial atonement for his ludicrous U.N. speech on Iraq's WMD. Or perhaps some of the so-called moderate Republicans who have either been knocked out of office in 2006 or are fearing that outcome in 2008.
Farrapo,
Republicans endorsing Obama? You'll get "he's a strong candidate," "smart guy," "great speaker,"... but an endorsement? Call me cynical, but I've yet to see any Republican not uphold the Party line -- Party above all else. Love to, but I doubt we'll see it. They'll fall in line for one of the Clown Show participants on on their side.
A little tangential, but at a party the other night people were discussing who Obama (if nominated) might select as running mate. I suggested Edwards (per my post above), but the guy I was speaking to suggested ... McCain! I tried hard to not choke on my pate' before listing a few of the zillion reasons why that was a *terrible* idea. However - am I wrong? I'm a rather isolated left-coast ultra-liberal so maybe I'm missing something?
My objections included the fact that McCain is a total fraud, not popular among the people who matter, would hugely alienate the Democratic Party, and leave Nobody for 2016 (and who'd want to give a Republican that much of a leg up assuming he could live that long?)
I remember McCain was floated as Kerry's running mate, the idea that he would bring a 'bipartisan' appeal. I think it's totally crap. No Democrat needs to "reach across the aisle" to win this one.
Politicians don't get to be successful in their line of work by taking unnecessary risks, and an Obama endorsement at this time would be such a risk.
Today we'll see the kind of "nuanced" praise we just got from Colin Powell, who basically said he "admired" Obama. Not an endorsement, but not a rejection. Safe.
Tomorrow, though, after Obama wins NH on the shoulders of the independent and young people, who see (rightly or wrongly only time will tell) his candidacy as a break from "politics as usual", we're going to start seeing a lot of endorsements pile up.
Perhaps Gore hasn't endorsed Obama because Obama asked him not to. Gore is almost as polarizing a figure as Clinton. Surely Obama realizes that his perceived ability to unite America behind his leadership has two major characteristics:
First, it's unassailable. As long as the perception holds, Obama is covered in teflon. He is immune to all forms of opposition research.
But the second characteristic of this perception is that it's not very robust. It depends not only on Obama refraining from doing/saying something stupid, but also on his surrogates behaving properly. There is little chance of Gore behaving properly and even less chance of his being perceived as behaving properly. A Gore endorsement will infuriate the right--even the center-right. Obama can't afford him.
NB: I believe that Obama is completely genuiune in his desire to unite the country and end the partisan sniping. But that doesn't prevent him from understanding that maintaining and communicating this unity requires deft image management. From now until the election, Obama's going to be doing a high-wire act over a corral full of velociraptors. It's not the sort of thing you'd want to do while carrying Al Gore piggyback.
From WSJ:
"Several Senate colleagues who have sat on the fence are now in talks with Obama advisers about endorsing the freshman Illinois senator over his more experienced colleague."
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119976546847474153.html?mod=hpp_us_inside_today
RadicalModerate,
Gore is simply unwilling to endorse anybody. Why should he? What does he gain? He's already got a world-wide stage. If he doesn't endorse Obama, what does he lose?
Reasonable people view endorsements as one-way relationships, and, as such, a Gore endorsement would hurt Obama only among those who are irrational in their distrust of Gore. This would describe what segment of the likely Democratic Party primary voters?
The few endorsements that could truly hurt someone would have to come from someone despised by a large majority of the electorate. George Bush, Joe Lieberman, William Kristol, or Dick Cheney, for example.
We all know how much Gore just LOVES Hillary Clinton afterall. Obama's Environmental Policy is viewed very favorably, and he's the type of leader who could convince the USA and the World to make the sacrifices needed to carry the movement that Gore typifies to fruition.
This is probably the #2 reason I support Obama with my blog, my $ and my aspiriations, with #1 being his ability to make use work together again.
America needs Obama
Gore should Endorse Tomorrow, before Clinton can even spin herself out of this one.
Obama,
Compliments on your chosen candidate, but it occurs to me that perhaps the world would rather not be 'led' by the US, anywhere. Perhaps we should simply try to right our own boat, before triumphantly leading the world.
As for 'all working together' here in the US, good luck to you and Obama on that. Speaking only for myself, I don't care to work together with those who condone lawlessness, torture, illegal surveillance, and subversion of our constitution. I'd prefer not to come together with those who like our politics awash with cash and special interest considerations. I don't want unity of purpose and harmonious accord between the three branches of government or our political parties. I prefer them acting to jealously preserve their own respective powers and responsibilities. If they had done this from the beginning of Bush's presidency, perhaps many of the evil consequences of his tenure might never have occurred.
Obama's "can't we all just get along" meme is the least attractive aspect of his message, in my opinion. That is not the way the founders set it up.
I can't really see a Gore endorsement helping Obama. Gore does not appeal to non-Republicans who dislike the Democratic base (and there are a lot of us, and we vote for Obama). If Obama wins this, it will be in spite of "popular Democrats" like Gore.
I think it's important to make a distinction between when and how a Gore endorsement would help Obama. In the general election, it is conceivable that a Gore endorsement could hurt Obama with some voters, but it really depends on who the GOP candidate is. With the current crop of Republican candidates, I don't see a lot of enthusiasm among the party's base and a strong aversion among independents. So it may not matter that much either way.
The more important issue for Obama right now is getting the nomination. The Clinton machine is capable of throwing a lot of dirt. Just because they haven't been really effective at it yet doesn't mean they won't start getting nastier. That's where Gore can come in and call the smear campaign what it is and give his endorsement to Obama. At this point, I think Gore has more credibility with Democratic voters than Bill or Hillary Clinton, who both supported the war from the start despite Bill's lame denials. Not only was Gore right about the war when it was unpopular (as were Dean and Obama), but he was awarded a Nobel Peace Prize for his work on global warming.
My sense is that, unlike many politicians, Al Gore is now on what he feels is a higher mission--to get the world to do something about global warming--and that is why he didn't run for president. I believe that Gore much prefers Obama, who is closer to his own positions than Hillary can pretend to be. Gore dislikes Hillary's campaign manager Mark Penn (who doesn't?) and didn't part on good terms with Bill Clinton. However, Gore didn't want to endorse too early because he would have to work with whoever became president, and up until about a month ago, it looked like that would be Hillary. Now, Obama's is leading and Gore's endorsement could push him over the top for good.
Politically, this works out well for Obama because, assuming that Gore will in fact endorse him, there are few people with the stature to stand up to a former president and call foul. Gore is one of them. The Oprah endorsement was timed well and I believe the Gore endorsement will be as well.
casual--
I guess it's good that there are lots of people out there that think like you. The conservative part of me is always overjoyed to have gridlock in Congress, because it's almost always a good thing when very little legislation gets enacted. Of course, I'd really love it if we could have rational debate on the issues, too. But that doesn't seem very likely, as long as there are plenty of folks that would rather be virtuous rather than effective.
Oh, well. Have fun pouring on the vitriol.
Radical,
I don't like gridlock, and that was not my point at all.
But since you brought it up, the only reason so few things got done this legislative session is the threat of filibuster in the Senate, employed by one party, one party only. Guess which one.
Looks like we may have to hold off on the coronation. Steel yourselves for HRC declaring herself the comeback kid.
Obama-Gore 2008?
casual--
And which party fillibustered through 2003-2005, when the GOP had nominal control?
Look: I'm giving you a hard time on your karma running over your own dogma. I hope you take that to heart, but it's not really my point. Polarization leads to gridlock--irrespective of which party's in power. This an annoying, albeit not wholly bad, thing. For those of you who have dearly held beliefs, you have one of two choices: Either you learn to compromise (which implies respecting the other guy's viewpoint), or you learn to accept a government that enacts very little legislation. I'm pretty happy with either outcome.
'theradicalmoderate' reiterates the standard GOP talking point: "they did it too!!"
Forgetting, naturally, the real story: the Dems did it to block Bush's most horrible nominations (and were threatened with the "nuclear option") - and in the spirit of compromise (!) still approved *vastly* more of Bush's appointees than the GOP congress did for Clinton. Meanwhile the current Republican minority has made it standard practice to filibuster virtually every item of legislation, even bills they approve of.
There is not an iota of comparison.
The problem with using buzzwords like "polarization" and "gridlock" is that they are used in place of understanding what's really going on.
The press loves Obama because he is the polar opposite of the man in the White House. He is poised, eloquent and a brilliant orator, and after all, the currency of the press is language.
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