A Pivotal Moment for the Democratic Party

In light of her victory today in Nevada, my guess is that Hillary Clinton is now the odds on favorite to win the Democratic nomination. It's still early and the race is by no means over, but I think Obama now has the more difficult path to the nomination. And with apologies to Senator Clinton and her supporters--to whom I mean no disrespect--I find the prospect of a Clinton-led Democratic ticket depressing and problematic.

I say that for several reasons. First, from a purely strategic standpoint, I am deeply concerned about Hillary's ability to win a general election. I sincerely hope that I'm wrong about this, but my gut tells me that she'll lose. General elections inevitably hinge on perceptions of character, and Hillary is already disliked by over half the country. And perhaps more importantly, she's disliked by much of the mainstream media, which will ensure that she gets relentlessly bad press coverage throughout the election. That's particularly true if she ends up running against John McCain, who is beloved by the media and who, unlike Hillary, has high cross-party appeal.

I know it's been said so many times now that it's become cliche, but nothing would unite and galvanize the Republican party (which is currently demoralized and in disarray) more than running against Hillary Clinton. That's a particularly important consideration in a year when a significant percentage of Republicans are guaranteed to be less than enthusiastic about their own nominee--whomever that turns out to be.

Although I will certainly vote for Clinton if she is the nominee, I confess I won't be enthusiastic about doing so. I don't particularly like the idea of the White House shifting back and forth between members of the Bush and Clinton families or the reigns of power shifting back and forth between Bush and Clinton loyalists. There's something dynastic and unamerican about that.

I also find it very hard to believe that Clinton--if she manages to win at all--will ever secure the sort of electoral mandate or enjoy the level of personal popularity necessary to accomplish any real change.

I guess this is all a long way of saying that I fear that the Democratic party is on the verge of making a colossal mistake.

This upcoming election may offer a once in a lifetime opportunity to change the direction of the country in a fundamental way. There's a recession looming, if it hasn't already arrived. The sitting Republican president and his policies--both domestic and foreign--are deeply unpopular. Independent voters and even many Republicans are deeply disenchanted with the state of the country and the current Republican party.

The circumstances are ideal for a charismatic, fresh-faced Democratic to put a new face on the Democratic party and lead it to a sweeping victory, not just in the presidential election but in Congressional elections as well, and thereby create the ever-so-rare conditions necessary to accomplish significant and meaningful change.

I think Obama has the potential to be that kind of transformational candidate. He's new, he's unlike any Democratic politician the American people have seen before, and he's an exceptional orator. In other words, he seems well-suited to make the most of this unique moment in history.

Clinton, by contrast, is the opposite of a fresh face. She represents, quite literally, a continuation of the last Democratic administration, and because of that, it is highly unlikely that she'll be able to expand the Democratic coalition or win over even the most disgruntled of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents.

Again, I hope I'm wrong, but I worry that if the Democratic party nominates Hillary Clinton over Barack Obama--which it looks increasingly likely to do--it will turn out to be a mistake and a missed opportunity of truly epic proportions, the political equivalent of drafting Sam Bowie over Michael Jordan.

UPDATE: I also tend agree with this:

[T]he longer the Democratic race goes on, the likelier it appears that Clinton could well win the nomination in a way almost designed to maximally divide and demoralize her own party - and raise her own national negatives to stratospheric levels. It would mean a Clinton candidacy in the fall that had actively alienated independents and repelled Republicans, while undermining a key source of Democratic support - African-Americans.