A Few Thoughts on the Election

I'm far too tired and over-worked at the moment to engage in any real analysis of anything, so instead I'll just offer some stray thoughts.

1) I really wish the talking heads would stop attributing Rudy Giuliani's embarrassing electoral performance to "poor strategy." Yes, his Florida or bust strategy was stupid. But it's not like he would have been more competitive had he tried harder in earlier states. He sunk lots of money into New Hampshire and it only caused his poll numbers to go down. Giuliani lost because he's a creepy weirdo, and the more you see him, the more that becomes apparent. Moreover, his entire campaign was built around the fact that he happened to be the mayor of a city that was attacked by terrorists, and even stupid people eventually realized that wasn't a particularly compelling rationale for being president. And, of course, it didn't help that his closet was overflowing with skeletons. In short, he was a really bad candidate and even a perfect "strategy" would not have secured the nomination for him.

2) It's going to be fascinating to see how the Rush Limbaughs and Hugh Hewitts of the world come to grips with the increasing likelihood of John McCain being the Republican nominee. They've really dug themselves into a hole with their unhinged criticism of McCain. In order to maintain their influence and stay in the party's good graces, aren't they going to have to try to make nice eventually? If not, what happens to the GOP?

3) I found Hillary Clinton's attempt to claim victory in Florida (and get national television coverage for it) incredibly obnoxious. Had Florida been genuinely contested, she might well have won anyway, but the fact is that she's the much more well-known candidate, and that's a huge advantage when your chief rival can't campaign or advertise in the state and can't try to drive up turnout, as he has in the other states. Moreover, Hillary's cynical late-in-the-game attempt to stand up for Florida voters (after previously agreeing to abide by the rules) was clearly intended to influence the vote in Florida and focus media attention on the results, which can't be anything but misleading. And don't even get me started on Michigan, where Hillary wants the delegates from a contest in which only she was on the ballot. It will be interesting to see how the media covers Clinton's Florida "victory."

4) While I suspect that Clinton is still ahead of Obama in many, if not most, of the Super Tuesday states, I wish news organizations would stop highlighting polls in those states that were conducted prior to South Carolina and prior to Obama's recent string of high-profile endorsements. Doing so undoubtedly inflates Clinton's actual level of support in those states and in doing so, may affect the behavior of both voters and donors. Polls conducted prior to major events in a campaign are completely useless. It's better not to report anything than to report obviously stale poll numbers.

5) If ever there was a time when an key endorsement could make a difference in a presidential race, it's now. My sense is that Obama just needs a little bit of a bump to pull even with Clinton in the Super Tuesday contests. And there's one major endorsement still out there. Al Gore. Gore is the one person who is respected enough in Democratic circles to tip the scale in one direction or the other. If he endorsed Obama this week, it just might make the difference.