I Take It Back: Huck Can't Win
A couple of weeks ago I argued that Mike Huckabee was being underrated and that his chances of winning the Republican nomination were actually pretty good. I take it back.
Since I wrote that post, there has been an outpouring of anti-Huckabee sentiment from within the conservative media. And not just from the neoconservative and business-conservative types who have always been a little embarrassed by their socially conservative comrades. According to Marc Ambinder, Rush Limbaugh is now referring to Huckabee as "the Huckster" and comparing him to Jimmy Carter. That's not a good sign for Huckabee.
Remarkably, Huckabee doesn't seem to have any supporters within the conservative media, not even at the blog level, and a number of influential conservatives have criticized him in such strong terms that it's hard to see how they could ever walk back their comments. I had expected the prospect of a Huckabee nomination to scare a lot of conservatives, but given the manifest weakness of the rest of the field, I didn't anticipate the vehemence of the counter-attack. I thought conservatives would temper their criticism of a Huckabee out of a fear of alienating major elements of the conservative coalition. And I though that if Huckabee started winning states, most Republicans would eventually fall in line.
I think I was wrong. Though Huckabee may very well end up winning Iowa and a few other states, I don't see how he can win the nomination with the entire conservative media is working against him. How can he win if he's being trashed by Rush Limbaugh, Fox News, and nearly every conservative columnist in the country?
As long as the field stays crowded, Huckabee can win states by getting a mere plurality of the vote. But it seems likely that the Republican establishment will eventually coalesce around one of his opponents--whether it's Romney, McCain, Giuliani, or Thompson--and that person will eventually secure the nomination. The only way Huckabee can win is if the Republicans fail to coalesce around a single alternative. And if that happens, the Republican party will be in total disarray, its coalition completely fractured. In that unlikely scenario, it wouldn't surprise me at all if someone like Mike Bloomberg jumped into the race as an independent and syphoned off a big chunk of traditionally Republican voters.
Though Huckabee has run a savvy campaign up to this point, his major error was to allow himself to be pigeon-holed as a niche candidate. By focusing so intently on winning the evangelical vote, he failed to reinforce his conservative bona fides in other key areas, most notably fiscal and foreign policy. As a result, he failed to make himself sufficiently non-threatening to the other key constituencies in the Republican party.
What will be interesting to see is if the current, rather vicious campaign to tear Huckabee down will end up alienating and offending the evangelical wing of the party. By all rights it should. If it's not now obvious to those voters how much the rest of the party takes them for granted and looks down upon them, then they are completely oblivious.
Since I wrote that post, there has been an outpouring of anti-Huckabee sentiment from within the conservative media. And not just from the neoconservative and business-conservative types who have always been a little embarrassed by their socially conservative comrades. According to Marc Ambinder, Rush Limbaugh is now referring to Huckabee as "the Huckster" and comparing him to Jimmy Carter. That's not a good sign for Huckabee.
Remarkably, Huckabee doesn't seem to have any supporters within the conservative media, not even at the blog level, and a number of influential conservatives have criticized him in such strong terms that it's hard to see how they could ever walk back their comments. I had expected the prospect of a Huckabee nomination to scare a lot of conservatives, but given the manifest weakness of the rest of the field, I didn't anticipate the vehemence of the counter-attack. I thought conservatives would temper their criticism of a Huckabee out of a fear of alienating major elements of the conservative coalition. And I though that if Huckabee started winning states, most Republicans would eventually fall in line.
I think I was wrong. Though Huckabee may very well end up winning Iowa and a few other states, I don't see how he can win the nomination with the entire conservative media is working against him. How can he win if he's being trashed by Rush Limbaugh, Fox News, and nearly every conservative columnist in the country?
As long as the field stays crowded, Huckabee can win states by getting a mere plurality of the vote. But it seems likely that the Republican establishment will eventually coalesce around one of his opponents--whether it's Romney, McCain, Giuliani, or Thompson--and that person will eventually secure the nomination. The only way Huckabee can win is if the Republicans fail to coalesce around a single alternative. And if that happens, the Republican party will be in total disarray, its coalition completely fractured. In that unlikely scenario, it wouldn't surprise me at all if someone like Mike Bloomberg jumped into the race as an independent and syphoned off a big chunk of traditionally Republican voters.
Though Huckabee has run a savvy campaign up to this point, his major error was to allow himself to be pigeon-holed as a niche candidate. By focusing so intently on winning the evangelical vote, he failed to reinforce his conservative bona fides in other key areas, most notably fiscal and foreign policy. As a result, he failed to make himself sufficiently non-threatening to the other key constituencies in the Republican party.
What will be interesting to see is if the current, rather vicious campaign to tear Huckabee down will end up alienating and offending the evangelical wing of the party. By all rights it should. If it's not now obvious to those voters how much the rest of the party takes them for granted and looks down upon them, then they are completely oblivious.
posted by A.L. at 12:13 AM
8 Comments:
The republicans win by fracturing. North from South, Religious from Secular, Black from Brown from White. They fracture the unum, then pick up just enough to win from the shattered and scattered pluribi.
But what happens when those carefully calculated fracture lines keep on running, out of control, right into the GOPstag? The sacred homeland?
There are about 2500 delegates to the RNC. If you look at the states Huckabee has a good chance of carrying, it amounts to about 700. Not enough to swing the nomination, but enough to make it very difficult for anybody else without his help.
Suppose he throws his support behind Giuliani or Thompson in return for the VP slot. Then, if the GOP wins, Huckabee is in line, behind somebody who is likely not to survive for four years.
Huckabee would never consider throwing an elected official under a bus to take control, of course. I'm just pointing out a "scenario."
at this point, the only match-up that remotely frightens me is McCain vs. Clinton.
On any national stage, all other Republican candidates would be revealed as inept bozos.
McCain would be a bitter pill for many in his party to swallow, but the prospect of Hillary could be enough to make them forgive and forget, and nationally McCain could frame himself as a consensus candidate. Versus Godzillary.
Interesting, the differences between a McCain/Huckabee and a McCain/Lieberman ticket.
I am curious how you would substantiate your contention that there has been a "vicious" attack on Huckabee. I have certainly heard attacks, on Huckabee and every other candidate, but nothing that jumped out at me as vicious with regard to Huckabee.
Your broader point that attacks on Huckabee could alientate the evangelical base is well taken, but I think other Republican candidates are well aware of this danger, and will tread carefully because of it.
This is a mark of liberal thought, even anonymous ones: overestimation of media influence. When communists used to have revolutions, they seized the newspaper offices before the government buildings.
The Huckster may go down, but it won't be because the conservativre media deemed it so.
and as we all know, the purest liberal is, has been, and always will be, a communist...
The problem is Bush/Cheney are so evil, it makes you forget how dumb Democrats are.
MLS,
Perhaps "vicious" is the wrong word. How about intense? My point is that Huckabee is being criticized in very strong terms, e.g., many are stating flat out that they would never support him. I had originally thought that much of the conservative establishment would eventually warm up to him and fall in line if he started looking like the presumptive nominee. I was clearly wrong. There are chasms there that appear unbridgeable.
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