Huckabee Could Win the Whole Thing

The conventional wisdom among political commentators (from across the political spectrum) is that Mike Huckabee could very well win the Iowa caucuses but that he has little chance of translating that victory into a successful nomination run. In other words, he's a spoiler, capable of derailing Mitt Romney's candidacy but not of winning the nomination himself. I think that's mistaken.

As Chris Cillizza explains, Huckabee still has his work cut out for him in Iowa. Though he is rising rapidly, his campaign is underfunded and he may be peaking too soon. That said, *if* Huckabee wins Iowa, and particularly if he wins it handily, he has a perfectly plausible path to the nomination. Part of the reason people doubt Huckabee's lasting power is the fact that his campaign is lacking in money and lacking in establishment support. Both of those factors ultimately doomed John McCain's insurgent candidacy in 2000.

But there are some pretty significant differences between Huckabee in 2008 and McCain in 2000. In 2000, essentially the entire Republican establishment coalesced around George W. Bush. Bush had the support of all the major Republican interest groups (the religious right, the anti-tax crusaders, the old guard, etc). Much of what McCain said during the campaign made it impossible for these groups to support him. So they joined together and tore him down.

In this election, however, these forces are unlikely to coalesce around a single one of Huckabee's opponents. Giuliani, Romney, Thompson, and McCain each have some level of establishment and interest group support, and each have weaknesses that are preventing important players from getting behind them. There's no equivalent of George W. Bush in this race. And unlike McCain in 2000, Huckabee is already the preferred candidate of one of these key groups, the religious right. And while Huckabee's record of raising taxes as governor has incurred the wrath of the Grover Norquist, anti-tax faction of the party (which is all too often fatal), it not inconceivable that this group could, under the right circumstances, fall in line behind his candidacy. Huckabee has, after all, signed Norquist's anti-tax pledge and has made the "fair tax" a central part of his platform.

In other words, Huckabee is not as threatening to the key Republican interest groups as McCain was in 2000, and even if he were, those groups are unlikely to rally behind a single opponent.

As for money, I think it is far less important than people seem to think it is. In 2004, John Kerry's campaign was flat broke just prior to the Iowa caucuses (he had to mortgage his house to keep going). But the money came flowing in after he won in Iowa. Moreover, with the compressed schedule this year, free media is going to be much more important than paid media. The New Hampshire primary is only five days after Iowa. The winner of Iowa will benefit from an enormous amount of free publicity during those five crucial days. And even without the benefit of paid advertising, Huckabee is already rising rapidly in the polls outside of Iowa. A new South Carolina poll released today had Huckabee in 3rd place with 13% support. That's just a few points behind Romney and Thompson and ahead of both McCain and Giuliani. If Huckabee can do that without any paid advertising (and without all that much free publicity either), there's no reason to think he won't be competitive in other states should he manage to win Iowa.

Finally, having sat through several of the Republican debates, it's pretty clear to me that Huckabee is the one of the more (if the not the most) charismatic and polished candidates in the field. I think one of the things that's been keeping him from getting the recognition he deserves in this regard is his perceived status as a "second-tier" candidate. He's essentially been the Joe Biden of the Republican debates, i.e., the best debater but often ignored and not given very much speaking time. As a result, he's never really had the opportunity to "win" a debate. That will change if he starts to be perceived as a first-tier candidate. He'll be given more time to speak and more attention in the post-debate commentary. That change may even be visible in the debate tonight. It'll be interesting to see.

Needless to say, none of the above should be taken to indicate that I'm a Huckabee fan. I'm not (though I'd take him over Giuliani in a heartbeat). I just think he's being underestimated. The Republican nomination is completely up for grabs at this point and I think Huckabee has just about as good a shot as anyone.

UPDATE: UncommonSense thinks Huckabee could go all the way, too.