That Poll Doesn't Mean What You Think It Means
It seems like every week a new poll comes out that shows Congress's approval rating to be at a new low. And every time one of these polls is released, scores of conservative bloggers and pundits triumphantly cite the poll as evidence that the current Democratically-controlled Congress is even more worthless and despised than the prior Republican-controlled Congress.
Today, Gallup released a poll showing that only 14% of Americans have "confidence" in Congress, an all-time low in the Gallup poll. Citing the poll, this conservative blogger writes:
Even a moment's reflection will tell you that this is an apples-to-oranges comparison. When these polls were taken in mid-2006, the dissatisfaction that was being registered was largely uniform in nature. Most Democrats, independents, and disenchanted Republicans were fed up with Congress for the same reasons: they were disgusted by the widespread corruption and opposed to our policy in Iraq. The result was, naturally, a lop-sided Democratic victory.
But current polls are registering something very different, something decidedly non-uniform in nature. The electorate is fed up with Congress for very different reasons. Some (a very large percentage I suspect) are upset because they think Congress is not doing enough to stop the Iraq War. Others, particularly those on the far right, disapprove of Congress because it is trying to stop the Iraq War. Still others, also mostly on the Right, are fed up with both Democrats and Republicans in Congress because of their joint efforts to pass comprehensive immigration reform. And still others, particularly independents and moderates, are upset because they perceive Congress to be gridlocked by partisanship and unable to get anything done.
Frankly, I'm surprised anyone has confidence in Congress. But that's neither here nor there. The point is that these numbers don't mean what conservative bloggers seem to think they mean, i.e., they don't mean that the American people preferred the previous Republican-controlled Congress and are experiencing some sort of buyer's remorse. The many disenchanted liberals and Democrats out there who are upset that Congress caved in on the war funding debate would still gladly take this Congress over the corrupt, rubberstamping bunch of yahoos who ran the show prior to this year. And there's no reason to think that disenchanted independents are longing for the days when Tom DeLay and Duke Cunningham were in power. They are still breaking heavily toward the Democrats in polls.
What these polls reflect are the high (and I would argue unrealistic) expectations that many liberals, Democrats, and independents had for this new Congress, expectations that Democratic leaders have not been able to live up to. They also reflect Republican disenchantment with their own Republican members of Congress, especially over the issue of immigration. What they don't reflect is the sort of disenchantment that is likely to lead people who voted Democratic in the last election to cross over and vote Republican in the next. People who are turned off by corruption and strongly opposed to the Iraq war are not going to vote for a Republican anytime soon. And conservatives who are upset about immigration may choose to just stay home.
Conservatives who take solace in these low Congressional approval ratings are deluding themselves. There is nothing encouraging in these numbers for the GOP.
Today, Gallup released a poll showing that only 14% of Americans have "confidence" in Congress, an all-time low in the Gallup poll. Citing the poll, this conservative blogger writes:
They have actually managed to make the last Congress look good. That is some kind of feat - in only five months, too.Glenn Reynolds interprets the data similarly:
Nonetheless, this is troubling, and not just for the Democrats, who are only doing somewhat worse than the GOP Congress did.And Don Surber writes:
Joseph Carroll of Gallup Poll reported today that what took a Republican Congress nearly 12 years to achieve, a Democratic Congress has done in less than 6 months.This conclusion--that the Democrats are even more despised than the Republicans were--is such a silly misreading of the poll data that I find it hard to believe that conservatives actually believe it.
Even a moment's reflection will tell you that this is an apples-to-oranges comparison. When these polls were taken in mid-2006, the dissatisfaction that was being registered was largely uniform in nature. Most Democrats, independents, and disenchanted Republicans were fed up with Congress for the same reasons: they were disgusted by the widespread corruption and opposed to our policy in Iraq. The result was, naturally, a lop-sided Democratic victory.
But current polls are registering something very different, something decidedly non-uniform in nature. The electorate is fed up with Congress for very different reasons. Some (a very large percentage I suspect) are upset because they think Congress is not doing enough to stop the Iraq War. Others, particularly those on the far right, disapprove of Congress because it is trying to stop the Iraq War. Still others, also mostly on the Right, are fed up with both Democrats and Republicans in Congress because of their joint efforts to pass comprehensive immigration reform. And still others, particularly independents and moderates, are upset because they perceive Congress to be gridlocked by partisanship and unable to get anything done.
Frankly, I'm surprised anyone has confidence in Congress. But that's neither here nor there. The point is that these numbers don't mean what conservative bloggers seem to think they mean, i.e., they don't mean that the American people preferred the previous Republican-controlled Congress and are experiencing some sort of buyer's remorse. The many disenchanted liberals and Democrats out there who are upset that Congress caved in on the war funding debate would still gladly take this Congress over the corrupt, rubberstamping bunch of yahoos who ran the show prior to this year. And there's no reason to think that disenchanted independents are longing for the days when Tom DeLay and Duke Cunningham were in power. They are still breaking heavily toward the Democrats in polls.
What these polls reflect are the high (and I would argue unrealistic) expectations that many liberals, Democrats, and independents had for this new Congress, expectations that Democratic leaders have not been able to live up to. They also reflect Republican disenchantment with their own Republican members of Congress, especially over the issue of immigration. What they don't reflect is the sort of disenchantment that is likely to lead people who voted Democratic in the last election to cross over and vote Republican in the next. People who are turned off by corruption and strongly opposed to the Iraq war are not going to vote for a Republican anytime soon. And conservatives who are upset about immigration may choose to just stay home.
Conservatives who take solace in these low Congressional approval ratings are deluding themselves. There is nothing encouraging in these numbers for the GOP.
posted by A.L. at 10:01 PM
11 Comments:
An excellent reading of the situation, explained well.
A thing I've often wondered is what the point of taking a national poll of Congress is good for. Even granting that it asks the correct questions, and that it gets a decent response rate, and is interpreted correctly.
I'd guess that both Ted Stevens' and Robert Byrd's popularity, in national polls, would be in the low teens over the last 35 years, on average, yet the voters in their respective states have returned them to office time after time, and by lopsided margins.
Here's a rule for pollsters: If you cannot peg your poll to something that matters, please just don't ask the questions.
Polling is already flawed enough even when it applies to something.
I agree with S.W. An excellent break-down. Looking at Memeorandum, it's a shame you seem to be the only Liberal providing any perspective. Shame on them.
Denial - it's more than just a river in Egypt.
Oh if only those left-leaning liberals would just wise up and start supporting the right-wing pandering of their elected officials!
Most of our representatives are just political narcissists, as maybe so are most of us. Maybe we're all just waiting on fixing things in this country for that moment when we can right injustice AND look good doing it.
We do get the government we deserve.
The problem with Congress lies with Bush and the Republican members.
How many times have legislation been delayed by cloiture votes. And 2 out of 3 of King George's vetoes have come in the last 3 months.
This is the PR game. What have the Dems done in Congress? Haven't supported their "wildly left" base and have failed on their promises.
No mention of the obstructionist tatics the Repugs use of Bush now acting high and mighty regarding "morals" and what America wants(out of Iraq)
The way to beat this strategy is to keep reintroducing and voting on these bills again and again. Bush can keep vetoing and Democrats can point to who is really putting the kabash on wanted legislation.
Now, everything I said would apply to a Normal Presidency, not the monarchy that King George sees. SIGNING STATEMENTS My fear has always been that our Boy King will just write signing statements and ignore the laws passed by the people's Congressmen
My feeling about the latest poll showing Congress's approval in the mid teens? I think this bodes ill for the Republicans. I don't believe most people who follow politics wholly blame the Democrats for lack of action on key legislation - the war and stem cell research, for exsample. I think that most followers of the political scene in
Washington know why so much key legistation doesn't make it into law. The Republican Party in Washington is determined that Democrats do not fulfill any of their promises. Of course we are disillusioned with the present Congress! Who wouldn't be? But does that mean I will vote for a Repulican in 2008? No way! I know why stem cell research won't happen. I know why we don't have a date to withdraw our troops from Iraq. And I know who is to blame for a lack of action on many fronts. It's not the Democrats who are to blame; it is the Republicans who have stopped all of the initiatives from passing. Oh, no, it's not the Democrats who will pay for this sorry show; it is the Republican Party who has shown itself to be against any legislation that is put forward by the Democrats. They will go down and go down hard!
I put it this way. Any political body that has 251 Republicans in it is bound to be unpopular.
Excellent analysis as far as it goes, but ... did the Gallup Poll also ask respondents which party has the majority in Congress?
I ask because many polls _do_ ask. I've followed politics for two-plus decades now, through several changes of majority, and polls never seem to show much higher-than-chance percentages of people knowing. Which makes their up-or-down opinions of "Congress" even harder to interpret than you're suggesting.
The way to beat this strategy is to keep reintroducing and voting on these bills again and again. Bush can keep vetoing and Democrats can point to who is really putting the kabash on wanted legislation. -barkleyg.
I think you're right in saying the administration is the road block the Dems must overcome to achieve progress. They seem to think that if just wait long enough, that they will just go away. "Hello" - we've had these parasites since the Nixon days and if Congress can't get past 'em now then allowing them to retrench even more will not help at all.
Let me be frank - the road home from Baghdad is blockaded by the executive branch... I think the only productive thing now is for Congress to declare war on the executives and so clear the path home for our forces, and a path forward for all of us.
When voters reluctantly chose Democrats last November, despite the horrendous policies of the Bush-Republicans, I think it's reasonable to assume they wanted "change," not more of the same. But they not only got more of the same, the new majority has no more interest in the public's interest than the Republicans. Unless one is prepared to argue the Law of Inverse Proportions is irrelevant, why have a majority and the president "agreed" to illegal non-reform when 75% disapprove of it? The opinion of Congress has not risen since the Democrats gained control, but has continued to slide, not that they new Speaker's ethically-challenged chairs, her earmarks to favor his own family, and caving to the war had any effect on voter sentiment. When Joe Biden in one of the debates preposterously claims that without a veto-proof Congress, to override a presidential veto, withholding the "purse strings" could not change the dynamics of the Iraq War, either he is entirely out-of-touch with reality, or he still does not understand our system of government. The voters are not stupid, even if occasionally indifferent. If Congress withheld funds, what would the president have to veto, and assuming he had something to veto, why would anyone need/want to override it? Either way, mission accomplished, unless one thought Biden plausible. When Hilary insists that Iraq is Bush's War, as if she never heralded it and espoused it or voted for it, who does she think she is kidding? It's one thing to promise and not deliver, it's another to boldfacedly lie. The Republicans are worse, but worse compared to what, when both are at the bottom of incredulity?
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