Asking the Right Questions About Iran

Josh is right. Reporters are getting side-tracked by the Bush administration when it comes to the issue of Iranian weapons. They're focusing on the dispute over whether these shipments were authorized by the highest levels of the Iranian government. That's an interesting question, but the far more important and pressing question is where these shipments are going. This is where the Bush administration is being intentionally evasive. Both Bush and the anonymous military briefers claim that the weapons are being shipped to "extremist groups." That's an intentionally cryptic phrase. The administration wants to imply, without actually saying so explicitly, that Iran is shipping weapons directly to Iraqi insurgents, who then use those weapons to blow up American troops. But that's a highly implausible claim. If the Iranians, particularly Iranian government officials, are indeed shipping weapons to Iraq, it is far more likely that the weapons are being provided to Shia paramilitary groups allied with the Maliki government. Some of these weapons may then end up in insurgent hands through the black market (in much the same way U.S. made weapons end up in insurgent hands), but the Iranian connection is attenuated.

The key question is this: if Iran is shipping weapons to Iraq, why is it doing so? That question can only be answered if we are told precisely which "extremist groups" the Iranians are shipping the weapons to. Obviously, shipping weapons to Shia militias reflects different intentions than shipping weapons to al Qaeda or Sunni insurgents. Reporters need to press the administration on these issues and not get side-tracked by the less important question of who authorized the shipments.

UPDATE: Spencer Ackerman is asking the right questions.