The 2008 GOP Primaries: Pass the Popcorn
(updated below)
Mark my words: the 2008 Republican presidential primaries are going to be unlike anything we have ever seen. The GOP has a long tradition of relatively uneventful presidential primary races in which the party coalesces around a front-runner relatively quickly. But with the current slate of GOP presidential hopefuls, it seems far more likely that the 2008 primary race will resemble a circular firing squad. This is especially true now that Rudy Giuliani has entered the race.
The other day, Glenn Greenwald argued that pundits were underestimating Giuliani, that his appeal to the Republican base on war and terrorism-related issues would ultimately trump concerns about his positions on traditional social issues like gay rights and abortion. Over at the Huffington Post, Lawrence O'Donnell gives the standard counter-argument:
Consider the following:
1) Unlike every other Republican nomination battle in recent history, there is no clear front-runner in '08. The two current poll leaders--John McCain and Rudy Giuliani--are running neck-and-neck.
2) Many key elements of the GOP base already have serious reservations about both of these candidates. See exhibit A, exhibit B, and exhibit C.
3) John McCain has already lined up the most vicious attack artists and smear merchants the GOP has to offer. They will focus their fire on Giuliani, who has a closet full of skeletons and a laundry list of issue positions that will not play well with the Republican base. McCain, who is pro-life and pro-gun, will undoubtedly make an issue of Giuliani's pro-choice, pro-gun control past.
4) Giuliani will hit back by playing up everything McCain has ever done to anger the GOP base (finance reform, the Gang of 14, amnesty for illegal aliens, defending the rights of detainees, etc.). He'll also hammer McCain for his obvious pandering and long track record of flip-flops over the last eight years.
5) Mitt Romney will try to position himself as the "true conservative" and will hammer both McCain and Giuliani on every issue where they differ with the GOP base. Having a cleaner personal history, he may even try to make an issue of their checkered personal lives (divorces, affairs, etc.).
6) Giuliani and McCain will respond by painting Romney as a phony and an opportunist (which won't be hard).
7) The second tier candidates--Huckabee, Brownback, possibly Gingrich--will try to gain a foothold in the race by accusing McCain, Giuliani, and Romney of not being "true conservatives." Seeing a clear opening for a more traditional Republican candidate, they will relentlessly highlight the inadequacies of the top tier candidates and attempt to rally the GOP base--especially the Christian Right--around their candidacies. They'll hit both McCain and Giuliani hard on issues like gay marriage, abortion, and immigration.
8) Needing to establish their GOP bona fides, both McCain and Giuliani will go out of their way to emphasize the one area where they have always been in lockstep with the GOP base, the War on Terror. They will do this despite the likely deteriorating situation in Iraq and growing unpopularity of these positions among the population generally.
9) The candidates who have more solidly conservative credentials--and therefore more latitude to speak their minds on war-related issues (e.g. Brownback and Gingrich)--may attempt to tap into the public's dissatisfaction with Bush's war policies. They will attack McCain and Giuliani for their commitment to a failed policy and their record of poor judgment on war-related issues.
10) With no consensus front-runner, money will continue to flow in many directions and Republican politicians will endorse a number of different candidates, thereby prolonging the bloodletting.
[spoiler warning: don't read the next paragraph if you have not yet seen The Departed]
Giuliani may indeed emerge from this circular firing squad as the last man standing, kind of like Matt Damon in The Departed. But it won't be easy, it won't be pretty, and with any luck, the Democratic candidate will be the Mark Wahlberg waiting in the wings. (Apologies if I ruined the movie for you. The analogy was too good.)
UPDATE: This Redstate post defies all parody (h/t Andrew Sullivan). Not impressed by any of the current crop of GOP presidential hopefuls, the author calls, in all seriouness, for a Rumsfeld/Bolton ticket in '08. He writes--and I'm not making this up--"The fundamental issue here is one of competence." He then elaborates on this somewhat counter-intuitive argument:
Mark my words: the 2008 Republican presidential primaries are going to be unlike anything we have ever seen. The GOP has a long tradition of relatively uneventful presidential primary races in which the party coalesces around a front-runner relatively quickly. But with the current slate of GOP presidential hopefuls, it seems far more likely that the 2008 primary race will resemble a circular firing squad. This is especially true now that Rudy Giuliani has entered the race.
The other day, Glenn Greenwald argued that pundits were underestimating Giuliani, that his appeal to the Republican base on war and terrorism-related issues would ultimately trump concerns about his positions on traditional social issues like gay rights and abortion. Over at the Huffington Post, Lawrence O'Donnell gives the standard counter-argument:
When Republican primary voters discover how liberal Giuliani has been on social issues--along with how many wives he's had and how many gay men he has lived with while waiting for a divorce to come through--they are going to abandon him faster than Democratic voters fled from Howard Dean.I suspect the truth lies somewhere in between. I think Giuliani could win the nomination, but it won't be easy. Giuliani will emerge as the nominee only if he's fortunate enough to be the last man standing in a Reservoir Dogs style shoot out.
Consider the following:
1) Unlike every other Republican nomination battle in recent history, there is no clear front-runner in '08. The two current poll leaders--John McCain and Rudy Giuliani--are running neck-and-neck.
2) Many key elements of the GOP base already have serious reservations about both of these candidates. See exhibit A, exhibit B, and exhibit C.
3) John McCain has already lined up the most vicious attack artists and smear merchants the GOP has to offer. They will focus their fire on Giuliani, who has a closet full of skeletons and a laundry list of issue positions that will not play well with the Republican base. McCain, who is pro-life and pro-gun, will undoubtedly make an issue of Giuliani's pro-choice, pro-gun control past.
4) Giuliani will hit back by playing up everything McCain has ever done to anger the GOP base (finance reform, the Gang of 14, amnesty for illegal aliens, defending the rights of detainees, etc.). He'll also hammer McCain for his obvious pandering and long track record of flip-flops over the last eight years.
5) Mitt Romney will try to position himself as the "true conservative" and will hammer both McCain and Giuliani on every issue where they differ with the GOP base. Having a cleaner personal history, he may even try to make an issue of their checkered personal lives (divorces, affairs, etc.).
6) Giuliani and McCain will respond by painting Romney as a phony and an opportunist (which won't be hard).
7) The second tier candidates--Huckabee, Brownback, possibly Gingrich--will try to gain a foothold in the race by accusing McCain, Giuliani, and Romney of not being "true conservatives." Seeing a clear opening for a more traditional Republican candidate, they will relentlessly highlight the inadequacies of the top tier candidates and attempt to rally the GOP base--especially the Christian Right--around their candidacies. They'll hit both McCain and Giuliani hard on issues like gay marriage, abortion, and immigration.
8) Needing to establish their GOP bona fides, both McCain and Giuliani will go out of their way to emphasize the one area where they have always been in lockstep with the GOP base, the War on Terror. They will do this despite the likely deteriorating situation in Iraq and growing unpopularity of these positions among the population generally.
9) The candidates who have more solidly conservative credentials--and therefore more latitude to speak their minds on war-related issues (e.g. Brownback and Gingrich)--may attempt to tap into the public's dissatisfaction with Bush's war policies. They will attack McCain and Giuliani for their commitment to a failed policy and their record of poor judgment on war-related issues.
10) With no consensus front-runner, money will continue to flow in many directions and Republican politicians will endorse a number of different candidates, thereby prolonging the bloodletting.
[spoiler warning: don't read the next paragraph if you have not yet seen The Departed]
Giuliani may indeed emerge from this circular firing squad as the last man standing, kind of like Matt Damon in The Departed. But it won't be easy, it won't be pretty, and with any luck, the Democratic candidate will be the Mark Wahlberg waiting in the wings. (Apologies if I ruined the movie for you. The analogy was too good.)
UPDATE: This Redstate post defies all parody (h/t Andrew Sullivan). Not impressed by any of the current crop of GOP presidential hopefuls, the author calls, in all seriouness, for a Rumsfeld/Bolton ticket in '08. He writes--and I'm not making this up--"The fundamental issue here is one of competence." He then elaborates on this somewhat counter-intuitive argument:
And then there's his most recent performance as Secretary of Defense. Rather than running away from this record, how about running on it? How about trumpeting the military success of the missions in Iraq and Afghanistan, and highlighting the need for inter-agency reform to offset the problems we have encountered in reconstruction?Yes, if they run on their record of success in Iraq and Afghanistan, they can't possibly lose! Oh please, GOP voters, listen to this guy.
8 Comments:
If this is the case and all the Republicans fall, it looks likely that Dems will take the White House in '08.
Unless they, too, engage in a circle jerk - er, shootup.
You are making a faulty assumption regarding Giuliani. You assume that because his personal life and previous political positions are incompatible with "conservative" positions that the Republican base will not support him. History shows that they support anyone they think can win. Look at Dubya's personal life, or Reagan's. These guys would support Osama Bin Laden as long as he adhered to the far-right agenda. It's about power, not principle.
These guys would support Osama Bin Laden as long as he adhered to the far-right agenda. It's about power, not principle.
Possibly, but Giuliani isn't willing to do that. He reaffirmed his pro-choice position just a few days ago, and people like Tony Perkins have already made it clear they won't support him. I have no doubt that the GOP will rally around whomever their nominee is, but Giuliani is not going to just be handed the nomination.
Anecdotal, but both of my parents are social conservatives and both of them have told me they probably would not vote for Guiliani in the general election because of his positions on abortion. His moderate stance on social issues is going to hurt him even worse in the primaries, IMO.
First, let me say that I haven't made a study of the factors that influence the course of GOP primaries. Taking that into consideration, it still seems that one is the amount of money the candidate or his proxies can raise. Another is the endorsements by other politicians, by papers, by unions, by other organizations.
Just taking these into account it would appear to me that Giuliani's candidacy is quixotic but doomed. It may survive the early primaries in the northeast, but I can't see him doing well in Iowa, and as for the western states, forget it.
I'm not a party to his strategy sessions, but it seems to me that his candidacy is more an attempt to keep his star from fading while waiting out the current downturn in the GOP fortunes than a serious run for the presidency.
As for McCain, this is his last shot, as he's getting pretty old (in both the sense of age and relevance.) With all his negatives, given the rest of the field, he'll do moderately well.
The thought of the GOP nominating Rumsfeld and Bolton (or Newt) is intoxicating, but I can't see the GOP being that self-destructive.
I think we're actually going to end up seeing McCain do his usual, medium well, and I think we're going to see one of the minor candidates (not Newt) gradually move to the forefront and win. I don't see Romney being able to do that, so right now my money is on Huckabee, Brownback, or none of the above.
In a circular firing squad, the thinnest man most probably wins, and that would be Huckabee.
not that im suggesting or supporting him as a candidate but i think al gore best fits the role as a stand-in for the mark wahlberg character in the departed. and really just so many people up for the johnny damon role that are all so deserving i couldnt just pick one.
Re. UPDATE: Bwaaaahahahahahaha! Coffee dripping into the crevices of my keyboard. Wiping screen with my sleeve.
I am interested in how the inclusion of Ron Paul as a candidate will effect the voting. I am neither for or against him but he seems to have honest answers at least.
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