A McCain/Lieberman Ticket?
This week Washington journeyman Marshall "Bull Moose" Wittman, a former spokesman for John McCain, put his blog on hiatus and took a job as spokesman for Senator Joe Lieberman.
This prompted both Mark Schmitt and Steve Clemons to raise the specter of a McCain/Lieberman "unity ticket" in 2008. Schmitt writes:
Clemons writes:
That said, it is interesting to consider how such a scenario might play out. The way I see it, there are only two ways it could come to pass, neither of them particularly likely. It's clear that John McCain is determined to win the Republican nomination. So the most obvious way a McCain/Lieberman ticket could come about is if McCain wins the Republican nomination and selects Lieberman as his running mate. Though Lieberman's newly found "Independent" status makes this possibility more likely than it might once have been, it still strikes me as very unlikely. Nothing remotely like that has ever happened, and McCain would encounter massive resistance to such a move among the Republican 'powers that be.' (The one thing that could change this calculus is if Lieberman decides to switch parties at some politically opportune time, thereby delivering the Senate back to the GOP and earning the gratitude and acceptance of Republican activists and party establishment types. I wouldn't put it past him.)
The second--and slightly more likely--possibility is the one Mark Schmitt describes, where after losing the Republican primary, McCain "pulls a Lieberman" and decides to run as an independent candidate. Under this scenario, Lieberman, as a high-profile independent who had previously been rejected by Democratic primary voters, would be an obvious bookend to the ticket. As Mark points out, Beltway pundits and journalists would eat this up and would give McCain and Lieberman endless free publicity. Though such a ticket would pair arguably the two most hawkish people in the Senate, their candidacy would undoubtedly be portrayed as the triumph of the "vital center" in American politics.
As nauseating all that would be, I'm not all that worried about it. First, my hunch is that John McCain will either win the Republican nomination or hang it up; I don't think he'll "pull a Lieberman." Republicans just don't do things like that. When push comes to shove, they rally around their candidate, whoever that turns out to be.
It's difficult to overstate just what world of pain McCain would be walking into if he decided to run as an independent against the duly nominated Republican candidate. In a party that places loyalty above all else, McCain would be committing the ultimate sin. The major power brokers in the Republican party would go absolutely nuts and would make it their primary goal in life to destroy him.
And therein lies the reason Democrats shouldn't be overly worried about a possible McCain/Lieberman independent ticket; such a ticket seems likely to peel away many more Republican voters than Democratic ones. Though some traditionally Democratic voters would undoubtedly be drawn in by the novelty of a McCain/Lieberman ticket, it is not as if either man is particularly beloved by Democrats. McCain is a conservative Republican and Lieberman is an incumbent Senator who lost his own party's primary (something that almost never happens). These guys will appeal much more to traditionally Republican voters than traditionally Democratic ones.
And, importantly, both McCain and Lieberman have been unrelentingly pro-war from the beginning. To the extent Iraq is still a major issue in 2008--and it seems likely to be--the Democratic ticket would have a virtual monopoly on anti-Iraq sentiment.
Plus, it's not like the Republican party is going to ignore their official candidate (like they did in Connecticut). He'll have the full force of the Republican political machine behind him. That means McCain would have to really battle for the votes of conservatives, forcing him to tack right and limiting his ability to woo Democratic voters. In others words, a McCain/Lieberman independent ticket seems much more likely to hurt the Republican candidate than the Democratic one.
Remember, the last time there was a three way race, it worked out pretty well for the Democrats. And Perot wasn't a conservative Republican. I could be mistaken, but the way I see it, the Democrats have little to fear from a McCain/Lieberman third party candidacy.
UPDATE: Matt Stoller of MyDD has also written an interesting post on this topic.
This prompted both Mark Schmitt and Steve Clemons to raise the specter of a McCain/Lieberman "unity ticket" in 2008. Schmitt writes:
[I]t's quite obvious where this is going. John McCain will fail to win the Republican nomination, and he and Lieberman will turn up as a third party presidential ticket. They will have a great shtick: "We were each rejected by the ideological extremists in our parties, therefore we represent the true forgotten center of American politics." The Broders of the world will salivate over the possibility.
Clemons writes:
What those heaping scorn on Wittman are missing, however, is what his employment by Lieberman really means.While I certainly agree that a McCain/Lieberman ticket would be Wittman's dream come true, I'm not nearly as convinced as Mark and Steve are that this sort of "unity ticket" is a realistic possibility.
When political giants tie up, it's not an accident.
Lieberman's acquisition of Marshall Wittman, who is very close to John McCain, signals a calculation by some that McCain and Lieberman might tie up for the 2008 Presidential run.
That said, it is interesting to consider how such a scenario might play out. The way I see it, there are only two ways it could come to pass, neither of them particularly likely. It's clear that John McCain is determined to win the Republican nomination. So the most obvious way a McCain/Lieberman ticket could come about is if McCain wins the Republican nomination and selects Lieberman as his running mate. Though Lieberman's newly found "Independent" status makes this possibility more likely than it might once have been, it still strikes me as very unlikely. Nothing remotely like that has ever happened, and McCain would encounter massive resistance to such a move among the Republican 'powers that be.' (The one thing that could change this calculus is if Lieberman decides to switch parties at some politically opportune time, thereby delivering the Senate back to the GOP and earning the gratitude and acceptance of Republican activists and party establishment types. I wouldn't put it past him.)
The second--and slightly more likely--possibility is the one Mark Schmitt describes, where after losing the Republican primary, McCain "pulls a Lieberman" and decides to run as an independent candidate. Under this scenario, Lieberman, as a high-profile independent who had previously been rejected by Democratic primary voters, would be an obvious bookend to the ticket. As Mark points out, Beltway pundits and journalists would eat this up and would give McCain and Lieberman endless free publicity. Though such a ticket would pair arguably the two most hawkish people in the Senate, their candidacy would undoubtedly be portrayed as the triumph of the "vital center" in American politics.
As nauseating all that would be, I'm not all that worried about it. First, my hunch is that John McCain will either win the Republican nomination or hang it up; I don't think he'll "pull a Lieberman." Republicans just don't do things like that. When push comes to shove, they rally around their candidate, whoever that turns out to be.
It's difficult to overstate just what world of pain McCain would be walking into if he decided to run as an independent against the duly nominated Republican candidate. In a party that places loyalty above all else, McCain would be committing the ultimate sin. The major power brokers in the Republican party would go absolutely nuts and would make it their primary goal in life to destroy him.
And therein lies the reason Democrats shouldn't be overly worried about a possible McCain/Lieberman independent ticket; such a ticket seems likely to peel away many more Republican voters than Democratic ones. Though some traditionally Democratic voters would undoubtedly be drawn in by the novelty of a McCain/Lieberman ticket, it is not as if either man is particularly beloved by Democrats. McCain is a conservative Republican and Lieberman is an incumbent Senator who lost his own party's primary (something that almost never happens). These guys will appeal much more to traditionally Republican voters than traditionally Democratic ones.
And, importantly, both McCain and Lieberman have been unrelentingly pro-war from the beginning. To the extent Iraq is still a major issue in 2008--and it seems likely to be--the Democratic ticket would have a virtual monopoly on anti-Iraq sentiment.
Plus, it's not like the Republican party is going to ignore their official candidate (like they did in Connecticut). He'll have the full force of the Republican political machine behind him. That means McCain would have to really battle for the votes of conservatives, forcing him to tack right and limiting his ability to woo Democratic voters. In others words, a McCain/Lieberman independent ticket seems much more likely to hurt the Republican candidate than the Democratic one.
Remember, the last time there was a three way race, it worked out pretty well for the Democrats. And Perot wasn't a conservative Republican. I could be mistaken, but the way I see it, the Democrats have little to fear from a McCain/Lieberman third party candidacy.
UPDATE: Matt Stoller of MyDD has also written an interesting post on this topic.
9 Comments:
This might be a great chance to dump both of them in one fell-swoop. After all, the chimp has all-time low popularity and mccain is showing himself to be a poor candidate without a spine.
My only concern is that the chimperor war forced on us by a powerful elite - let's be honest about this - rove and gang is no genius - they did not mastermind the theft of 2 federal elections.
While I would welcome mclame/LIEberman because I am sure they would get their butts kicked in an honest election, I am not confident that is what we have.
When the dems start providing oversight and investigating the crimes of this administration - neither mclame nor LIEberman are going to look good.
"So the most obvious way a McCain/Lieberman ticket could come about is if McCain wins the Republican nomination and selects Lieberman as his running mate. Though Lieberman's newly found "Independent" status makes this possibility more likely than it might once have been, it still strikes me as very unlikely. Nothing remotely like that has ever happened, and McCain would encounter massive resistance to such a move among the Republican 'powers that be.'"
Not sure what you mean by "Nothing remotely like that has ever happened." Lincoln (a Republican) named Andrew Johnson (a Democrat) as his running mate to unify the country at another very critical moment.
Not sure what you mean by "Nothing remotely like that has ever happened." Lincoln (a Republican) named Andrew Johnson (a Democrat) as his running mate to unify the country at another very critical moment.
That's hardly comparable. The 1864 election took place in the middle of the Civil War. The Southern states were in open rebellion. Johnson was the only Senator in his party not to have sided with the Rebels.
While I appreciate ALL the perspectives posted here, I have to agree with A.L. above - YOU CANNOT COMPARE TODAY'S REPUGS AND DEMOCRATS - the way that these parties have evolved over the years has resulted in 2 political organizations that bear little resemblence to the parties of a centruy ago.
Both parties have been co-opted by corporate interests, though the repug party is totally shameless about this and doesn't really stand for anyone but their "super-rich", elite base. Because they represent the strongest corporate interests in America, they are able to successfully use the MSM to "catapult the propaganda" that they are the party of small government, fiscal responsibility, homeland security and defence, economics, blah blah blah blah blah...
An objective look at the facts, however, proves this to all be lies and hyperbole - republicans stand for corporate welfare and an economic war against working Americans, their families, women, and children. This is hardly the "party of Lincoln."
Today's republican party is more of a criminal enterprise because they know that a majority of American voters would never support them if they were open and honest about their political agenda.
The good news is we get a "2-fer" if mccain and lieberman team up - THROW BOTH OF THE BUMS OUT ON ONE BALLOT!
That's hardly comparable. The 1864 election took place in the middle of the Civil War. The Southern states were in open rebellion. Johnson was the only Senator in his party not to have sided with the Rebels.
Some would argue that we're in the midst of a war now and that Lieberman is the only Senator in his party not to have sided with the terrorists. I don't buy it for a second, but you can bet that if we reach the point of a McCain-Lieberman ticket, the comparison will be drawn and may even attain the status of conventional wisdom.
I have to question some of A.L.'s assumptions. I think the idea of a McCain independent candidacy is certainly a possibility. The man has both a gigantic ego and a gigantic ambition. I think he DID want the Republican nomination before, but now it isn't looking that good to him. The Republican 'brand-name' is pretty badly tarnished, as shown by the last election, and if the Democrats run a moderately successful Congress, it will look a lot worse. He may not want the baggage any Republican nominee is stuck with.
Furthermore, if he runs in the primaries, he leaves himself open to a LOT of attacks from his fellow Republicans on either side of him -- and since he IS the curent front-runner, he'll get them. Once he gets through that, if he does, he has to face the Democratic attacks he'll receive.
But Independent candidates get a bit of a free pass, at least for a while. It took a good time before Perot's oddities got focussed on, John Anderson was considered more mainstream than he was. (And as for "Republicans don't do that' the last two serious, previously partisan, Independent candidates were Republicans. The last Democrats to run as Independents were McCarthy and Wallace.) Even Ralph Nader -- who hasn't gotten anything really right since Chevrolet -- was a bit of a media darling, and his many drawbacks weren't given the light they deserved -- at least until he, in effect, elected Bush.
If McCain ran as an independent, and the Republicans nominated a Brownback, a Huckabee, or on the other side a Giuliani, and the Democrats ran a candidate like Hilary or someone else most Republicans detest, there would be a LOT of defections to the Corkscrew Express, enough to win enough states to toss the election into the House -- or at least he might think there would be (giant ego, remember).
I won't say its better than even that he'll take this course, but I wouldn't rule it out that easily.
Jim, I see your point, but I still think McCain is set on seeking the Republican nomination. He's put a lot of effort into securing the best advisors and staffers on the Republican side and he's been working hard to get in good with the Republican establishment and key special interests. He may eventually run as an indepenent, but that is certainly not option A at this point. If he were to do that, he'd lose many of his advisors/staff, who would not want to be permanently black-listed from working in the Republican party. If he was planning to run as an indepedent, he would be acting now much as he did in 2000, taking to the center and doing things to emphasize his "maverick" nature. He's not doing that at the moment, which means he's still set on seeking the Republican nomination.
Remember, the last time there was a three way race, it worked out pretty well for the Democrats.
Actually, it was pretty much a wash. Exit polls in '92 showed Perot voters marginally preferred Clinton by a margin of 38-37 in terms of how they would have voted in a two way race (presumably most of the remaining 25% wouldn't have voted). It is possible that in a two way race, Ohio would have swung to Bush instead of Clinton, but even in that case Clinton would have won the Electoral College by a comfortable 349-189.
The story in 1996 was similar: Perot voters would have split 30-30 in a two way Clinton vs. Dole election.
It's a right wing talking point that Clinton somehow owed his presidency to Perot, but like so many right wing talking points it's simply false.
As a conservative who is skeptical of the merits of the party system, I would love to see an Independent McCain/Lieberman ticket. Imagine the political paradigm shift this would cause! But your analysis is very sound: this would not happen because McCain is too loyal to the party to change his affiliation.
Post a Comment
Links to this post:
Create a Link
<< Home