Adventures in Punditry
Mickey Kaus today asks an exceptionally dumb question:
Is Mickey really that oblivious to how our electoral system is structured? Let's review: under our system, only a third of all Senate seats are up for election in any given cycle. The Senate is structured that way precisely to prevent dramatic shifts in power. This year, there are only 16 seats currently held by Republicans that are up for election (18 Democratic seats are up for election). In other words, if the Democrats are able to achieve a 51-49 majority (which I personally think is unlikely), it will mean that they took back 6 of those 15 Republican seats without losing a single one of their own. That would be a truly historic landslide.
Moreover, as Mickey surely knows, red states are dramatically overrrepresented in the Senate relative to their populations, giving Republicans a HUGE built-in advantage. Indeed, given the current breakdown of red to blue states, it's more than a little amazing that the Democrats have any shot at all of achieving a majority.
To illustrate this, let's take a closer look at the breakdown of the 33 seats up for election. Of the 16 Republican senate seats up for election, a staggering 13 of them are in states that Bush won in 2004. And of the 18 Democratic seats up for election, 5 are in states Bush won in 2004. So in order to pick 6 seats, the Democrats have to not only win a number of new seats in red states, but they have to keep the Republicans from winning back a number of red state seats currently held by Democrats.
The real question Mickey should be asking is this: what does it tell you about our political system if in a year of epic disaster for their opponents, the best the Democrats can hope for is a 51-49 majority in the Senate?
UPDATE: JLB discusses some of the other built-in strutural advantages the GOP enjoys.
What does it tell you about a political party if in a year of epic disaster for their opponents the best they can hope for is a 51-49 majority in the Senate?
Is Mickey really that oblivious to how our electoral system is structured? Let's review: under our system, only a third of all Senate seats are up for election in any given cycle. The Senate is structured that way precisely to prevent dramatic shifts in power. This year, there are only 16 seats currently held by Republicans that are up for election (18 Democratic seats are up for election). In other words, if the Democrats are able to achieve a 51-49 majority (which I personally think is unlikely), it will mean that they took back 6 of those 15 Republican seats without losing a single one of their own. That would be a truly historic landslide.
Moreover, as Mickey surely knows, red states are dramatically overrrepresented in the Senate relative to their populations, giving Republicans a HUGE built-in advantage. Indeed, given the current breakdown of red to blue states, it's more than a little amazing that the Democrats have any shot at all of achieving a majority.
To illustrate this, let's take a closer look at the breakdown of the 33 seats up for election. Of the 16 Republican senate seats up for election, a staggering 13 of them are in states that Bush won in 2004. And of the 18 Democratic seats up for election, 5 are in states Bush won in 2004. So in order to pick 6 seats, the Democrats have to not only win a number of new seats in red states, but they have to keep the Republicans from winning back a number of red state seats currently held by Democrats.
The real question Mickey should be asking is this: what does it tell you about our political system if in a year of epic disaster for their opponents, the best the Democrats can hope for is a 51-49 majority in the Senate?
UPDATE: JLB discusses some of the other built-in strutural advantages the GOP enjoys.
posted by A.L. at 12:06 PM
5 Comments:
Exactly. I posted on this as well today. A study from Columbia University shows that Dems need 52% overall (which is a big number) to get a 50% of victory. The injustice is inherent to the system.
- JLB
I would also question whether it's fair to call this a year of "epic disaster." What we have been watching for the last twelve months or so is the inevitable rot of the GOP's political, policy, and moral corruption all manifesting at once. As bad a year as it has been, the public has been given no particulalry dramatic opportunity (with the exception of Katrina) to observe that party's failure and incompetence; and no great political hay has been made of that incompetnece, since the GOP controls the agenda and subpoena power. What the public has been reacting to, rather, has been a slow but overwhelming wafting of fumes coming from all corners of the GOP agenda/apparatus. It always takes a little while to smell a gas leak - and that's if you're lucky.
What does it mean? Expect another fake terrorist attack after the electcion - something that they can blame on Iran.
It always takes a little while to smell a gas leak - and that's if you're lucky.
Well I hear that chimpy thinks farts are downright funny...
Democrats won 73% of the Senate elections held this year (24-9).
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