Cutting Spending is not Enough
Even before the disaster wrought by Hurricane Katrina, our nation's fiscal house was in disarray. Tax cuts, increased domestic spending, and expensive wars had combined to balloon the deficit to record levels. And as we all know, the costs of existing programs, particularly Medicare and Medicaid, are expected to rise dramatically in the coming decades. So when President Bush announced that $200 billion in additional federal money would be earmarked for the Katrina relief effort, even the administration's most loyal water-carriers began to express concern. To their credit, many conservative voices in the media and blogosphere (and even some Republican politicians) have begun pressing the Bush administration to get serious about cutting spending and restoring some measure of fiscal sanity. When House Majority Leader Tom Delay suggested last week that there was "simply no fat left to cut in the federal budget," he was sharply rebuked by a number of conservative pundits and bloggers--many of whom almost never criticize Republican leadership. There is a growing sentiment among conservatives and Republicans that the spending earmarked for Katrina relief should be offset by cuts in other areas.
Unfortunately, as Stan Collender explains in his National Journal column, this is pure conservative delusion. While there are undoubtedly areas where spending could be cut, there simply isn't a vast reservoir of money out there being spent on unnecessary things. Collender writes:
Schmitt notes that while spending is up, the current deficit is attributable, in large part, to diminished tax revenue. The Republican obsession with cutting taxes has created a deficit so enormous that spending cuts alone cannot reasonably be expected to bring it back into balance. Though conservatives and Republicans refuse to admit it (and many still push for even further tax cuts), at some point we will have to raise taxes. There is simply no way around it. The sooner we do this, the less debt and interest will have to be repaid by future taxpayers.
Finally, Schmitt puts the Katrina relief costs in the proper perspective:
Unfortunately, as Stan Collender explains in his National Journal column, this is pure conservative delusion. While there are undoubtedly areas where spending could be cut, there simply isn't a vast reservoir of money out there being spent on unnecessary things. Collender writes:
The significant additional federal spendingCommenting on Collender's piece, Mark Schmitt applauds recent efforts by conservative bloggers to identify unnecessary 'pork' in the federal budget, observing that this exercise will "provide participants with an education in the actual insignificance of domestic discretionary spending, of which 'pork' is a small part, in the bigger context of war, reconstruction, and tax cuts."
because of Hurricane Katrina absolutely will
not be offset with cuts to other programs.
There are two reasons. First, there isn't enough
'unnecessary' spending or waste, fraud, and
abuse in the budget to pay for the federal costs
of Katrina, which are now expected to total at
least $200 billion in fiscal 2006 alone. That
may be hard to believe in a budget that will
approach $2.6 trillion next year. But when you
subtract those things the White House will not
want to cut -- Social Security, interest on the
debt, most other federal mandatory spending,
the Pentagon, the costs of activities in Iraq and
Afghanistan, homeland security and foreign aid
-- there is only about $500 billion left to be
scrutinized. Completely offsetting Katrina-
related costs would mean that all other
programs would have to be cut by about 40
percent, a ridiculous notion under virtually
any circumstances.
Schmitt notes that while spending is up, the current deficit is attributable, in large part, to diminished tax revenue. The Republican obsession with cutting taxes has created a deficit so enormous that spending cuts alone cannot reasonably be expected to bring it back into balance. Though conservatives and Republicans refuse to admit it (and many still push for even further tax cuts), at some point we will have to raise taxes. There is simply no way around it. The sooner we do this, the less debt and interest will have to be repaid by future taxpayers.
Finally, Schmitt puts the Katrina relief costs in the proper perspective:
That leaves the question, do we need to offset
the spending for Gulf Coast reconstruction? In
theory, of course not. That's exactly the kind of
project that one runs deficits for -- a crisis, a
major capital investment, an undertaking that
will yield economic benefits into the future. But
it is exactly the reason that one doesn't want to
run massive deficits routinely in good economic
times. It makes it all the more painful when you
do have an emergency or a recession. It is the
deficit that pre-existed Katrina -- projected at
$4.5 trillion over the period 2006-2015 -- that
we need to be concerned about and that will
take a toll on our economy.



5 Comments:
"Schmitt notes that while spending is up, the current deficit is attributable, in large part, to diminished tax revenue."
But the latest figures show that tax revenues are UP:
http://taxes.about.com/b/a/185334.htm
Not really. Tax revenues this year were higher than they were expected to be, but they were not higher in absolute terms. Tax revenues as a percentage of GDP are still way below historical norms.
And the only reason tax revenues were higher than expected this year is because a lot of companies, for some complicated tax law reason that I don't fully understand, decided to pay a lot of their taxes up front, rather than in the coming years.
Why shouldn't liberals take the same attitude toward GOP tax policy that you suggest they take toward the rebuilding of New Orleans? In other words, give them enough rope to hang themselves. Americans, unfortunately, need to hit a brick wall at full speed before they wake up and connect the dots; and on something as abstract as fiscal policy, that means a full-scale financial meltdown. If taxes were raised tomorrow, Republicans would always be able to fudge the argument by saying, "See, tax revenues were going up until they stepped in and screwed things up." And who knows? Maybe their tax policy will end up working. How long have liberals (Krugman et al.) been making dire predictions about the Chinese bailing out of the U.S. treasury market and the dollar imploding? Why hasn't that happened yet? If you're really the empiricist you say you are, you should be looking for the answer to that question before suggesting a reverse course.
You make a fair point. Perhaps I am being inconsistent in my approach to these issues.
That said, I think there is, arguably, a significant difference between the two situations. New Orleans has already suffered a catastrophe. The question there is how best to rebuild. In that sense, it seems like an ideal opportunity for localized policy experimentation. Our national economy, however, has not yet suffered such a catastrophe. Indeed our traditional fiscal policy has served us quite well. We are the most prosperous, powerful nation in the world. It's not always a good idea to mess with success. I'm not as enthusiastic about subjecting our entire economy to the same sort of experimentation we may see in New Orleans. The stakes are so much higher.
Moreover, if you think about it, this experiment started in 2001 with the Bush tax cuts, and four years later, the results aren't looking very good. How long do we have to wait to conclude that the experiment has run its course? At some point, the prudent thing to is to call off the experiment. Are we at that point yet? My hunch is yes, but maybe you're right; maybe we need to wait a little longer to see how this plays out.
Lower taxes mean companies put less effort into hiding their profits.
Thus revenues go up.
If liberals actually understood economics we'd all be richer.
BTW the Drug War costs $20 bn a year at the Federal level. $78 bn a year at the state level.
Not to mention another $100 bn a year in crime.
Bust Pork, Not Drugs
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