The Iraq Futures Market

You can often tell a great deal about the consensus in Washington by looking at the way Senators with presidential ambitions are positioning themselves. This week, two such Senators clearly bet heavily on the situation in Iraq becoming worse, not better over the next few years. Democratic Senator Russ Feingold of Wisconsin became the first 2008 presidential hopeful to call for the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq (to be completed by Dec. 31, 2006). On the Republican side, Senator Chuck Hagel offered his sharpest criticism yet of Bush's war policy, stating that "we're not winning" and "[w]e should start figuring out how we get out of there."

To be sure, both Feingold and Hagel have an incentive to bet this way on Iraq. Both are longshots for the nomination and need some way of distinguishing themselves from the pack. My hunch is that they both figure that if no progress is made in Iraq and public opinion continues to sour, their early and vocal criticism of the "stay the course" policy will leave them well positioned for a presidential run.

Nevertheless, I doubt either Feingold or Hagel would be so bold if the internal consensus in Washington was that the situation in Iraq is likely to improve any time soon. If public opinion continues on its current trajectory, we could be in for some unprecedented internecine squabbling in both parties before long.